12/10/23 Sunday 7:45 am
Yesterday morning I said, “If it tracks north sooner, it could completely change everything. I do not expect that to happen but I will be watching it.”
In the lack of any real dominant pattern, expect the unexpected. In this case a little bit of snow, maybe a little more than a little, probably not a lot. If the models continue to trend this way, it would be “a southern surprise” storm. These tend to deliver the most snow to the southern and central portions of the forecast area. It may be a sample of some of the storms we see this winter.
To clarify, I do not expect fewer storms for the mountains and more storms for the lower elevations. I do expect more southern-focused storms than in an average winter across the lower elevations this winter.
Here is the latest from the European model, putting the map in motion in 6-hour blocks beginning Wednesday at 2 am and ending Thursday at 5 pm. The blue of course is snow. That pink is ice that shows up briefly in northern New Mexico. The orange is sleet, to the extent we have sleet in this part of the country.
Hopefully, the onset of heavier precipitation will arrive with what the current modeling is showing, or be slightly delayed. We are going to warm up slightly in the next couple of days. This storm has sloppy written all over it. The later in the day the precipitation starts, the better chance it will be all snow.
Here are the current snow amounts forecasted by the European model, with most of the snow coming Wednesday evening and Thursday morning.
There is still a lot of uncertainty, but this was a new twist I wanted to share in case it comes together as is being currently advertised. by the models.
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