1/3/24 Wednesday 7:40 am
Today, I will be focusing my attention on the first storm. As said earlier in the week, even the first storm could reach advisory levels. The NWS issued those advisories overnight.
These advisories begin at 11 pm this evening and last Through Thursday 11 pm.
COZ022-023-040000-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0001.240104T0600Z-240105T0600Z/
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO,
AND PAGOSA SPRINGS
237 AM MST WED JAN 3 2024
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE MOUNTAIN BASE.
* WHERE...ANIMAS RIVER BASIN AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.
* WHEN...FROM 11 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY.
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. THE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE.
“Along the mountain base” What the hell does that mean?
COZ019-040000-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0001.240104T0600Z-240105T0600Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
237 AM MST WED JAN 3 2024
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAVORED SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES.
* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.
* WHEN...FROM 11 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY.
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.
COZ068-031900-
/O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0001.240104T0600Z-240105T0600Z/
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-WOLF CREEK PASS
356 AM MST WED JAN 3 2024
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES.
* WHERE...EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.
* WHEN...FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. THE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
237 AM MST WED JAN 3 2024
COZ021-040000-
/O.EXB.KGJT.WW.Y.0001.240104T0600Z-240105T0000Z/
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, AND MANCOS
237 AM MST WED JAN 3 2024
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM MST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES.
* WHERE...FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER.
* WHEN...FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY.
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. THE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE.
I don’t think these amounts will be too far off. My concern lies with their totals in the higher elevations. They have been relying strongly on high-resolution model guidance all week which shows pockets of 10+ plus totals.
I like and rely on high-resolution models as well. The problem comes when I don’t have any medium-resolution or even low-resolution modeling that mirrors some of those high-resolution totals.
Unless I see some major changes from the next couple of model runs, I plan to trim back my totals for the higher elevations. I am even questioning how strong this storm will be to impact areas north of Purgatory. I may increase totals for some of the mid-elevation areas at or above 7,500 feet as well. I think the focus of the storm will be from Purgatory to the south and along the 160 corridor.
Northerly and NW flow will filter in behind this storm. This could/should lead to an increase in snow in the Northern San Juans. This snow could continue on and off from late Thursday through Sunday when the next storm arrives!
My official forecast will be out late this afternoon.
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