10/16/24 Wednesday 5 am
I accidentally sent a template as a post yesterday; sorry for the confusion.
I have not had a chance to answer all of your emails yet. Thanks for your patience. I will not have any good advice for anyone attempting to travel over the mountain passes on Friday, Saturday, or early Sunday.
The models outdid themselves last night. The Canadian came to life–wow! There will be a better chance of showers developing later today as a remnant low pressure (not directly related to our upcoming storm).
This will prime the pump as SW flow continues tonight into Thursday. It will be difficult to tell when the old low fizzles out and the new low pumps fresh moisture in. As is usually the case, I will not separate the batches of moisture; I will treat the whole thing as one event.
So, there will be rain/snow showers later today, increasing on Thursday, becoming very heavy late Thursday early Friday through Saturday, and wrapping up some time on Sunday.
GFS
Liquid equivalent
Snow before melting
European
Liquid equivalent
Snow before melting
Up next is the Canadian model. I am assuming this is an anomalous run. It is showing the heaviest snow that I have ever seen forecasted for Purgatory, La Platas, and Coal Bank Pass. I have seen heavier snow forecasted for Wolf Creek, but it was not this early in the season.
Before we get too excited, let’s see what the next run looks like later today!
Canadian model
Liquid equivalent–Look at that 9.4 inches (liquid equivalent) over the La Platas! We will see what the next run shows…
Canadian
Snow before melting. The snow chart only goes up to 48 inches; this would literally be off the chart!
Again, let’s wait and see what the updated run shows.