10/18.24 Friday 5:45 am

The latest model runs continue to point to a very wet storm. Due to the time of year, verifying snow totals above 9,500 feet will be tricky.

\Here are the latest Winter Storm Warnings that officially go into effect at 6 am. Well done; I would not have changed the wording.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
423 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024

COZ018-019-182200-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0010.241018T1200Z-241020T1800Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, Lake City, Silverton,
Rico, and Mayday
423 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY
ABOVE 8500 FEET...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected above 8500 feet. Total
  snow accumulations between 12 and 24 inches with locally higher
  amounts around 3 feet above timberline on favored peaks.  Winds
  gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan
  Mountains.

* WHEN...Until noon MDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult
  to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
256 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024

COZ066-068-181700-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0016.241018T1200Z-241020T1800Z/
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains
Above 10000 Feet-
Including Cumbres Pass, Wolf Creek Pass, and North Pass
256 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO
NOON MDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and
  2 Feet. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet and Eastern San Juan
  Mountains Above 10000 Feet.

* WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to noon MDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible, especially
  over Wolf Creek Pass.

 

Here are the latest models. I will only share the liquid totals for the GFS and Canadian, but the Euro is persistent with lower elevation snow totals, so I will leave that in.

GFS

Liquid equivalent

Canadian

 

Liquid equivalent

European

Liquid equivalent

European

Snow before melting

I wish I were as confident as the Euro is about the lower-elevation snow. One thing to keep in mind is that the models don’t forecast accumulated snow. They forecast snow before melting.

My biggest takeaway from the overnight models is that the European is positioning itself a little further south. If this occurs, the deepest moisture would fall from Purgatory to points south.

While we were waiting for the storm, up to an inch of rain had already fallen. Lower elevations should get a ton of additional rain. One to two inches of rain will fall in Montezuma County, and two to three inches will fall in La Plata and Archuleta Counties. I fully expect to get a few reports of five inches or more!

As far as the snow goes, as I said, it will be difficult to verify. The majority of the snow will fall above 9,600 feet. However, on Saturday morning and Sunday morning, after midnight, snow levels could lower to 8,000 feet or lower.

All said and done, 18 to 24 inches for Wolf Creek. Purgatory should get 14 to 18 inches (less at the base). Telluride will likely see 8 to 12 inches (less at the base).

This could change if the low tracks a little further north.

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