10/19/24 Saturday 4:30 am

It’s not over yet! The closed low-pressure is spinning over Arizona early this morning.

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We will start with a bit of a lull in some areas this morning. Things will fire up by the afternoon (more than likely earlier). Thunderstorms will redevelop, and snow will continue in the higher elevations, mainly above 9,500 feet.

Here are the maps in motion showing the lull, giving way to thunderstorms as the day progresses.

Here is the updated Winter Storm Warning for Wolf Creek Pass. I waited until after 6 a.m., and GJT did not update theirs.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
333 AM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

COZ066-068-191815-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0016.000000T0000Z-241020T1800Z/
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains
Above 10000 Feet-
Including Wolf Creek Pass, Cumbres Pass, and North Pass
333 AM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations between 12 to 16
  inches.

* WHERE...La Garita Mountains above 10000 Feet and Eastern San Juan
  Mountains above 10000 Feet.

* WHEN...Until noon MDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible, especially
  over Wolf Creek Pass.

 

So far, steady rain has fallen in the lower and middle elevations. I have seen accumulations ranging from 0.70 inches to well over 3.0 inches, and we are only halfway through this event (don’t send me any totals until Monday morning).

According to SNOTEL sites, higher elevations have banked 8 to 18 inches of snow across the area.

Purgatory is on the lower end of those totals so far, with around 7 inches at the snowstake.

If you are a new follower, I don’t comment or adjust my thoughts too much during an extended precipitation event. Models were very consistent leading up to this event. Sometimes, they are right for the wrong reason. In other words, the Friday through Monday totals may be correct, but the totals from Friday to Saturday could be wrong. I have learned not to guess anything second when the low pressure is still in Arizona.

I was recently asked what the best setup for a massive storm in our area is. This is it! This is a best-case scenario storm. If this happened in the middle of winter, it would have delivered 18 to 60 inches of snow across the lower and mid-elevation areas!

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