12/27/24 Friday 4:30 am
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 314 AM MST Fri Dec 27 2024 COZ006-014-022-023-271800- /O.EXT.KGJT.FG.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-241227T1800Z/ Grand Valley-Upper Gunnison River Valley-Animas River Basin-San Juan River Basin- Including the cities of Grand Junction, Fruita, Palisade, Gunnison, Cimarron, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, and Pagosa Springs 314 AM MST Fri Dec 27 2024 ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Visibility less than 1/2 miles in dense fog. * WHERE...Animas River Basin, San Juan River Basin, Grand Valley, and Upper Gunnison River Valley. * WHEN...Until 11 AM MST this morning. * IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
That is the main story for the lower elevations this morning.
Snow continues to fall in Telluride and presumably across the Northern San Juans. A quick inch looks to have fallen at Purgatory. Snow will be on the increase this afternoon and overnight.
A low-end Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Northern San Juans. It goes into effect at Noon today.
COZ009-018-272300-
/O.EXA.KGJT.WW.Y.0036.241227T1900Z-241228T1300Z/
GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SKYWAY, TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY
242 AM MST FRI DEC 27 2024
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MST
SATURDAY ABOVE 9000 FEET...
* WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE 9000 FEET. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.
* WHERE...NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND GRAND AND BATTLEMENT
MESAS.
* WHEN...FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MST SATURDAY.
* IMPACTS...ROADS, AND ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, WILL
LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING. THE LATEST ROAD
CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY
CALLING 5 1 1.
I call it a low-end advisory because typical criteria at or above 9,000 feet is the potential for six to twelve inches of snow.
Based on the models I think four to eight is a reasonable forecast for most of the Northern San Juans. Similar totals should fall from Molas to Coal Bank. Higher totals are possible for Red Mountain and the Camp Bird area.
Two to five inches of snow could fall in and around Purgatory and Wolf Creek. Mid-elevations could see one to three inches. There is a low chance an inch or less may fall in the lower elevations if lucky.
Morning models could change my take, so I will post them again after they come out.