10/2/25 Thursday 4 am
Everything looks like it’s going to come together to bring us the tail of the west Coast trough Friday evening, bringing rain and snow showers overnight Friday, lasting at least into Saturday afternoon/evening. The further north you are, the longer the showers will stick around on Saturday.
Until then, everything I talked about yesterday should happen today. As the low-pressure system moves onshore and the system to our east holds firm, the pressure gradient will tighten. SW flow will bring warmer temperatures compared to yesterday, and the winds will irritate people.
Cue the maps in motion.
Beginning Friday at 2 pm, ending Saturday at 11 pm.
Models have shown run-to-run consistency, indicating a heavy ribbon of precipitation from approximately Haviland Lake to Purgatory. Lesser amounts further south.
That ribbon seems to wane the further north you go, with up to 0.50 inches in Silverton. Around Telluride, totals will be lower. However, Lizard Head to Rico is showing up to 1.00 of liquid.
Currently, it appears that 0.50+ inches is expected for Durango, with higher totals in the higher elevations along the 160 corridor to the west and 240 to the east. As well as higher totals from Hermosa to the north.
I generally don’t like forecasting rain amounts before the system makes landfall, but this system has some “winter structure” to it, and the models are pretty consistent.
So, how heavy is heavy for the area I outlined? Models are currently showing 1.5 to 2.5 inches of liquid.
Here is where it gets tricky. The snow model consensus forecast indicates that snow levels will bottom out around 9,500 feet on Saturday morning. The most lenient model shows 8,300. This is something that could easily be dismissed/overlooked by forecasters.
IF that ribbon migrates a little north, and IF the most lenient snow model verifies, watch out for Coal Bank!
Yep, tricky and something to watch over the next 36 hours!