10/3/25 Friday 4 am
It is ridiculous how fast time flies by. But here we are, it’s Friday, and the western trough is on its way.
It is not coming in as deeply as I had hoped, but the models have been relatively consistent, so this is not a surprise.
This is our first “winter-like” storm of the season. Without getting too far ahead of myself, we could have a repeat performance later next week into next weekend. It’s early, but a week out, models are showing a deeper wetter trough. Too early to worry or get excited, but this could be a very wet month!
Back to the present. Showers will start in the mountains and mix down to the lower surfaces later in the afternoon/evening. Wetting rains should fall overnight and during the day tomorrow. Retreating to the mountains by late afternoon into the evening.
Temps will drop 10 to 20 degrees from today’s highs, perfect if you are craving winter food. Sunday should be a nice fall day—mixed signals on the week ahead. We will tackle that on Sunday.
For the maps, we will look at the Euro and throw in a high-resolution model just for fun. Both start at noon and end at midnight Sunday morning.
First the Euro
NAM 3km
Subtle differences. Strangely enough, the hi-res model shows better coverage overnight and into Saturday morning. Typically, I would use this model to verify where the lower resolution model is missing.
This indicates that the northern portions of the forecast area will not be overlooked. I see a precipitation spread of 0.30 to 0.90 from Telluride to Red Mountain and down to Silverton. Fingers crossed!
Euro still shows that heavier ribbon around Purgatory. I am less confident with that today, as it is the only model showing that. Overall, it appears to be nice, wetting rains for most.
I will post again this afternoon after digesting all of the new model runs.
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