11/18/25 Tuesday 3 am
The good thing about a stormy pattern is that if the first storm does not work out as well as you hoped, the next one will arrive soon.
Yesterday, I mentioned that Sunday night’s storm was basically over before it started. Unless you were near the Utah border, you were likely disappointed with the results. The energy moved out quickly; in its wake, the higher elevations were left with instability and a light flow, which kept light snowfall throughout the day.
NEXT
Current regional radar and surface maps.
WU–Not an acronym, Used to be known as Wunderground
Here is how the latest European model run says it should look like over there at 5 am.
This indicates that the model is performing well in terms of track timing and placement. Incidentally, every model I looked at this morning shows a similar initialization. That’s all good news.
So let’s put the maps in motion and take a ride on the European model this morning. Here are the next 24 hours.
What we see are increasingly unsettled conditions. Have you ever wondered what it means when a forecaster says “unsettled conditions”? It means that they are not exactly sure what to expect. A chance of a light shower or light snow, with a mix of clouds and sunshine, and a cool, damp atmosphere.
So, not much is expected today, which means we have at least 24 hours where the timing, track, and intensity of the storm can change.
Let’s jump back on that model starting Wednesday at 5:00 a.m. and ending Friday night. Here is where we see divergence among the models.
The European currently shows the heaviest precipitation arriving early Thursday morning through Thursday night, perhaps lingering on and off throughout the day on Friday.
This model appears to be the best of the bunch so far. I am reluctant to post totals, but it will serve as a good benchmark to compare with what we see 24 hours from now.
Yes, I see the donut. If you are new, a donut is an area of lower precipitation surrounded by areas of higher precipitation all around it.
In this case, it’s a Durango donut. It is not as common as long-time followers think. From a meteorological standpoint, it is nearly impossible. However, the term is more often used anytime the forecast area gets missed. I am not worried about it yet; we’ll see in 24 hours.
The other models are quite different, so I will not post them for now.