11/19/25 Wednesday 3:30 am
Overall, the European model is still leading the other models with heavier precipitation for tomorrow’s storm. However, it is really trying to pinpoint some bullseyes — mainly in the eastern portions of our forecast area, think from Bayfield to Wolf Creek.
Historically, this suggests that some areas will do better than others, likely in the lower elevations. It does not mean that the particular area it is highlighting at the moment will be the beneficiary. At the moment, the technicals show similar snow levels to Sunday, even though the map coverage indicates a colder storm.
In other words, I have seen this in the European model before: 50% of the time, it is mostly correct; the other 50% of the time, the heavier precipitation falls from Mancos to Durango because the terrain is more favorable. The German model looks very interesting. The US and Canadian models are not very enthusiastic, showing precipitation outputs similar to the Sunday dud. I would really like to see the Canadian model more closely align with the European and German models in its next run.
To further complicate issues, the European model is brewing up another storm for Sunday. Looking further out, models are focusing on the weekend immediately after Thanksgiving for a big storm.
No matter how you cut it, it’s positive news. I will post some updated model runs by noon and attempt a forecast by this afternoon.
Another borderline Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the mountains; however, it excludes the NW San Juans and Telluride. We will see. By the way, did you see Wolf Creek ended up with 9 inches all said and done?