12/22/25 Monday 3:30 am
Sorry, this should make more sense now!
Update on MJO Part 2: Still Stuck in the Circle of Death
12/22/25 Monday 5:30 am
I have finished the write-up for Part 2 of the MJO series, but we’ve hit a bit of a snag. Just like the weather models we’ve been tracking for the Christmas storm, the MJO forecast models are currently suffering from the same “dry loop” and initialization errors we’ve discussed over the last week.
The “Circle of Weather Death” ![🌀] ![💀]
While the models forecast rain and snow, they also predict the movement of the MJO through its eight phases. For days now, the forecast has shown the MJO hunkering down inside the “circle of weather death.” * What this means: The models currently don’t anticipate the MJO having any significant influence on global weather patterns for the next two weeks.
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The Phase Diagram: If you look at the black line on the MJO charts, those numbers represent dates. The forecast begins where the lines turn red and purple. Right now, they are staying inside that center circle, suggesting the MJO is “null” or inactive.
Why I’m Hitting Pause ![⏸️]
MJO discussions can go down the rabbit hole very quickly, and I don’t want to publish a lengthy educational post about how the MJO isn’t doing anything. I want to show you how it DOES influence our weather.
I’m going to keep this update separate so I can focus on the storm potential for the end of the week.
The DWG Bottom Line: I’ll be monitoring the latest model runs to see if the MJO can finally catch a “major atmospheric shove” to break out of the circle. In the meantime, look for my full storm track update to be published by 7:30 am!