12/22/25 Monday 4:45 am
The Struggle for Consistency !🔄📉
While the models generally agree on the arrival time, their run-to-run consistency has been poor. We are seeing a “tug-of-war” between the different systems, making it difficult to pin down exact totals for Southwest Colorado.
European Model (Liquid Equivalent Forecast through Saturday):
-
Current Run: Showing a more modest solution for the end of the week.
24 Hours Ago: The model was much more aggressive with widespread moisture.
GFS Model:
-
Current Run: Still leaning toward a heavier setup with strong southwest flow.
24 Hours Ago: Indicated a “perfect” setup that has since been slightly dialed back in the latest data.
Beyond Saturday: A Tale of Two Lows
As we look past the initial Christmas event, the forecast becomes a complete “toss-up” between the two major models. While both hint at a very active pattern through the New Year, they are currently at odds over the fundamental structure of the atmosphere.
Comparing the Long-Range Outlooks !🗺️
-
The GFS Solution: This model remains the “optimist,” bringing in more precipitation on Sunday and eyeing a major storm for New Year’s Eve.
-
The European Solution: The Euro keeps us active through Saturday but is much quieter for the next holiday, showing only a weak system on New Year’s Day before a massive storm around January 5th.
The California Standoff
The core of the problem right now is a low-pressure system parked off the California coast. The models simply can’t agree on how to handle it:
-
The GFS wants to “close the low,” keeping it strong and organized as it moves toward us.
-
The European model is “opening it up,” essentially stretching the system out until it loses its punch and falls apart.
The big question remains: what will they show tomorrow morning? Until we see these two start to align, the long-range forecast is anyone’s guess.
The DWG Bottom Line
These shifts are the perfect example of why I wait for convergence before getting too excited. The European model often falls into a “dry loop” where it ignores moisture until the last minute, while the GFS can sometimes be a bit too “optimistic” this far out.
I’ll be watching the afternoon runs closely to see if they can finally get on the same page.