7/13/26 Monday 1 pm
I got multiple inch-plus reports of 1.00 to 2.00 inches of rain. Mid-elevation areas a couple of miles on either side of HWY 160 was the apparent storm track.
By definition, the most saturated areas have the best chances of heavier rain this afternoon. All models missed those heavy overnight showers. I will be very happy if this afternoon’s forecast verifies.
All models are indicating a bullseye area for this afternoon. Likely after 3 pm, but maybe much later. This area runs from approximately the Hesperus Ski area to Mancos. It extends north into the La Platas. And South along the RD46 loop and Menefee Mountain. If you live in that area, you know what I’m talking about. If you don’t, you probably don’t care.
That darker shade of green indicates heavier rains and higher totals. Intriguing to have such model consensus for such a small area. They might be wrong. We’ll see. If they are right, then that may give me better tools during the monsoon season.
As far as timing goes, any time from 3 to 9 pm. I would be nervous if there was no lightning detection in the forecast area before 3 pm. Before I finished typing that, my weather station detected lightning between 9 and 12 miles away!
By the way, that other bullseye around Vallecito, Lemon, and Forest Lakes is not on all models, unlike the western bullseye. Not a lot more to talk about. Hopefully we will have some great totals to talk about in the morning!