7/14/26 Tuesday 11 am
I am about 50/50 on yesterday’s model run showing the bullseyes. It was partially correct, but the heaviest precip fell just east of where indicated. I received reports of 0.80 inches in Hesperus, and 0.76 inches in Lightner Creek. Being in the middle of those locations, I only received an additional 0.24 inches. Most reports were higher; some were definitely lower.
No worries, there is plenty more on the way. Remember, yesterday and today were bonus “early start days”. Thinking back, I originally said on or after the 17th.
I was fully prepared to say that this afternoon was likely to be the least active of the week. Until the new European came out. It has a similar bullseye to yesterday, but a little further south. I am going to leave it in the “for what it’s worth” category for now.
I don’t want to get too far off-topic, but I came across a couple of interesting things.
- Finally some tropical activity to track. Low pressure should develop into a Tropical Depression this weekend. Where she goes from there is anyone’s guess. Recurves onto the US are pretty unusual this early in the season, but not unheard of. Remember Tropical Storm Bud in 2018? It helped us out immensely with our 416 fire!
2) This run (below) from NOAA’s CFSv2. This is NOAA’s Climate Forecast System. This model was launched in mid-2011. It is an updated version of the CFS, which launched in 2004. CFSv2 is supposed to be much more accurate than the original.
Anyway, I came across its temperature anomaly forecast for JFM (January February, March).
The model has never forecasted this cold of winter in the 14 1/2 years since it was released. This could throw a wrench in the winter forecast if it continues in this direction! Another thing to keep an eye on: this signature could only appear if we have a negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) with a very strong El Niño. I won’t go into the PDO in depth unless it becomes more certain. But the overall message is, it could be an interesting winter for much of the US!