7/28/26 Tuesday 6:00 am
I can’t help but chuckle that the big story in the Herald this morning is that the monsoons have arrived. Right before the monsoon is ready to shut down for a while.
I could not find any significant rain totals where I normally look. I did get a report that Glacier got a quick 0.20. Other reports were from areas outside of the forecast area.
For today, models show scattered pop-up thunderstorms this afternoon. Compared to yesterday, I would say the chances of storm development are slightly higher.
Tomorrow will be the best chance for our forecast area to get some rain before the monsoon gets disrupted until the middle of, or late next week.
Here is what that looks like. This is Wednesday late afternoon. You can see the moisture feed is present, but not particularly strong. Notice the breaks in the flow coming from Mexico? I would call this partial flow. Most of the thunderstorms are using residual moisture to develop, with a little help from the flow.
Partial Flow
This is Friday afternoon. I would call this disrupted flow. It speaks for itself, this is disrupted flow. We are shut down completely. Storm development would be entirely dependent on residual moisture. Models show in this condition until as early as Wednesday or as late as Friday. This dry period is going to cause a feedback loop with the models (dry likes to stay dry), which will likely render the models worthless in timing the return of full flow.
Disrupted Flow
It still appears that by mid-August, we will be in the best position of the season for heavier widespread rain. Here is what that looks like. This is August 11th.
Full Flow
That is a beautiful thing!
When the morning models come out I will post again, I am curious as whether or not tomorrow’s rain chances get shut down, or if the models are still optimistic for a last shot of precipitation for a while.