7/27/26 Monday 12:30 pm
The new European looks more like yesterday’s model run. If this model run is correct, this will reduce our afternoon storm chances. The peak of the moisture flow blockage, as the model sees it, begins on Friday 7/31 and lasts through the middle of the following week.
I am not sure that I completely believe it, not because I want the rain, but because I never trust the models when they flip back and forth. So far today, very few storms have started firing this afternoon. But dewpoints have not dropped; if you have a weather station, that is something you can track. Check it in the morning after sunrise, then again in the afternoon around 3 pm. What you’re watching for is a drop on both readings below 47, which would indicate our residual moisture is drying up and our moisture is at least partially blocked. I don’t need dewpoint reports because I will be checking all of the stations as well.
Let’s see what tomorrow brings. I’ll be back in the morning.