9/21/26 Monday 5 am
Nothing to talk about in our weather today; it should be another nice, boring day of seasonal fall weather.
I introduced Tropical Storm Polo into the conversation yesterday morning. Surfing through the weather media and clickbait media, it is already being talked about with sensational claims; I am sure it will somehow be linked to the “Super El Niño” at some point.
The timelines you will hear will refer to effects starting tomorrow, especially in New Mexico and possibly SW Colorado. Don’t confuse that with what I meant about the storm recurving, which, if it happens, would be closer to next weekend or next week and would be much more impactful than these tropical impulses that are always generated when any tropical cyclone develops close to the Mexican Coastline.
Every single model run for our area is affected by every wobble of the developing tropical storm. Tropical modeling is much different than landlocked modeling. I will expand on that topic in my afternoon post.
The takeaway from this morning’s update:
1) Be prepared to hear/read a bunch of misinformation or at least highly edited information sensationalized to garner public attention.
2) In the short term, consider all forecasts, especially from apps, unreliable more than one day out. I am not picking on apps, but most free apps update only once a day.
3) I am going to be taking the data one day at a time as I track how it may or may not affect our area. The debate is how far north this latest impulse will track, which will affect our weather Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.
4) The possibility of the storm recurving is a completely different conversation, and if it happens, it is a completely different topic that would affect our weather 5-8 days from now.