9/21/26 Monday 1 pm
Tomorrow afternoon/evening, models show the next moisture plume arriving in SW Colorado. They disagree on timing and location. They seem to be leaning towards the heaviest precipitation falling in the eastern portions of the forecast area.
One thing to keep in mind: the atmosphere will have to saturate again before we can expect much of that moisture to wring out (top-down saturation). Dewpoints are around 30 degrees right now. Models don’t have them hitting the low 50s until 6 pm Tuesday.
Models don’t show PWATs even hitting 100% (average) until 11 pm. tonight. By noon tomorrow, they show them at 145%-still not very impressive. By 6 pm, they climb to over 200%. As a reminder, PWAT isn’t calculated at the surface, so if we don’t get that top-down saturation, showers may not make it to the ground at lower elevations — until the saturation is achieved.
Models show those high PWAT values in place through Wednesday, then they start to diverge greatly. On the GFS, they drop significantly by Wednesday evening; on the Euro, they increase to 300% of average.
So that is why we are going to go one day at a time. Don’t misinterpret that as doubt that we’ll get more rain; I believe we will. By the way, the precipitation model spread is from 1 to 5 inches by Friday night!
Next update tomorrow morning: more on our showers and an update on Hurricane Polo.