9/22/26 Tuesday 10 am
The flood watch area has been expanded from Pagosa to most of La Plata County and San Juan County. Unfortunately, this is not a high-confidence call by the NWS due to model consensus. It is exactly the opposite. The models keep changing with about every run (the latest GFS now includes Friday for heavy rain).
That said, it is 100% the correct call. With this much uncertainty in track and timing, the only thing they can do is issue blanket flood watches.
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
944 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026
COZ022-232000-
/O.EXB.KGJT.FA.A.0008.260923T1800Z-260925T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Animas River Basin-
Including the cities of Durango, Bayfield, and Ignacio
944 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of southwest Colorado, including the following
areas, San Juan River Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains.
* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- The ground remains saturated from recent heavy rainfall over the
past week. After a brief break, deep moisture is expected to
return to southwest Colorado Tuesday with a few inches of
rainfall possible during the Wednesday through Thursday
timeframe. In addition, multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected Wednesday through Thursday evening
producing periods of heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding.
Flood Watch National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 944 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026 COZ019-023-232000- /O.EXT.KGJT.FA.A.0008.260923T1800Z-260925T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Southwest San Juan Mountains-San Juan River Basin- Including the cities of Pagosa Springs, Silverton, and Rico 944 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...A portion of southwest Colorado, including the following areas, San Juan River Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Another thing I keep seeing is snow levels dropping to 11,500 feet the next couple of nights, which, if true, could be cool.
I am going to shelve the discussion of the hurricane possibly recurving for now. As I said, if it does recurve, that will be several days from now, maybe even a week. I am going to focus on the next couple of days.
I look forward to revisiting that topic; it requires a lot more analysis. The hurricane models are multi-solution probabilistic. Hurricanes have always fascinated me. Did you know hurricanes have a “job”? More on that when I revisit the recurvature discussion in a few days.
I will be back this afternoon with the new Euro analysis.