9/22/26 Tuesday 5:00 am
I got a late start again this morning; I’m still trying to adapt to/establish a new schedule, if that is even possible anymore.
Today, moisture will continue to flow into the area, increasing the chance of showers as the atmosphere begins to saturate. The main event appears to arrive tomorrow. The situation is evolving; heavy rain is possible across the forecast area.
There is a lot to talk about. Hurricane Polo intensified overnight; calling it what it is, it literally blew up overnight. Not trying to use sensational language, but that is what happened.
As of 2:00 am, Polo was a strong Category 4 hurricane, very soon to be a Category 5. Update: NHC just upgraded it to a Cat 5. We will get that moisture feed over the forecast area, make no mistake.
Yesterday I spent some time talking about not relying on apps for making weather-related decisions. My motivation wasn’t to downplay the potential of this event; it was the exact opposite.
My intended point was that: 1) Every single wobble of this Hurricane can change the trajectory of the moisture feed. 2) Free weather apps are unreliable for the most part, because there is no explanation as to how old the data is that it is using to provide you with a forecast in this complicated scenario. 3) Don’t confuse the potential recurvature of the storm with this moisture plume that will be affecting us for the next couple of days. 4) If the recurvature happens, it won’t happen for a few days.
Hopefully, that clarifies where I am on this. Several inches of rain are possible. It is just difficult to pinpoint the bullseyes within the widespread event. One area I’m concerned about is Arboles, which is still in rough shape from last week. I could count on one hand (and not use all of my fingers) the number of times I have pointed out Arboles as an area of concern over the last decade.
As I said yesterday, models have been favoring Archuleta County for the heaviest rain. This could change. There already is a flood watch for that area starting tomorrow afternoon through Thursday night.
The best way for me to handle this event is to send several shorter updates so I can cover all the topics I want to get to. Stay tuned; as I said, the situation is evolving; it already did while I was writing this.
I just reread this; it is coming across as a bit alarmist. That’s not my point, although some areas will get rain as heavy as last week; modeling still suggests many areas won’t. Of course, that can change; that is why we need to take this one day at a time. I’ll start my next update soon, but I have a lot more data to digest.