9/26/26 Saturday 4:00 am
I was asked how I “knew” Hurricane Polo would recurve; I would say it was 50% luck. The other 50% was a couple of other factors. This has been a very, very active Eastern Pacific Hurricane season. So from that perspective, it’s a numbers game. Recurving is not unusual, but it is more likely in an active season. The other factor is how much very warm water is along the coast to fuel its track.
Hurricanes need fuel to do their “job”. What is their job? Their job is to mix warm surface water and draw in cooler water from below. In a Very Strong El Niño year, they have a lot of work to do, even though the warm pool is much further south than the MDR (main development region).
Here are the culprits
Notably, another storm is developing just southeast of Polo. The latest reports show Polo is still a strong Category 5 hurricane; Odalys, which has lost her way, is still a Category 2 hurricane. Odalys will initially be drawn toward Polo; then, when it gets close enough, the low-pressure depth and strong cyclonic flow will rip her apart and start funneling that moisture toward the SW US. That will be the first moisture that reaches landfall.
Here is how the European model initialized overnight.
There are many hurricane models. With flights going through them every day, they have a lot of constantly updated data.
We will start with the forecast tracks.
First up is the European model.
All the hurricane models are similar today, taking the remnants through New Mexico and across SE Colorado. This track would still deliver meaningful precipitation without the catastrophic flooding that may occur in Eastern New Mexico, Eastern Colorado, and the Panhandle area.
Here is the ATCF (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System) multi-model forecast. The Naval Research Laboratory developed this system, and it is one of the bellwether hurricane models.
Similar track. This track is dependent on where the storm comes ashore over Baja. A further north landfall would steer the heaviest precipitation closer to our area.
Here is the AI ECMWF, which is simply the European model powered by Google AI.
Similar, but it shows a few model members driving the remnants farther north and into Arizona.
To complicate matters, low pressure is going to be working into the West Coast. This may become the steering mechanism for the remnants.
This is Sunday at 9 pm.
A lot can change in 48 hours, so I am not going to delve into that until tomorrow. Models often rush the progression of low-pressure systems from west to east. If it sits and spins longer than expected, it may pull the remnants on a further west trajectory, which would bring heavier rain over our forecast area.
Time to put the maps in motion to give you a better visual of how it all comes together. I will do a couple of loops from continental to regional to local.
This is from Sunday 3 pm to Monday 3 pm. You can see the moisture being pulled from Odalys towards the Southwest US and into our forecast area.
Monday 3 pm to Tuesday 3 pm
Now I will go back to Monday morning and let it roll until the system moves out on Thursday.
This is probably a good place to stop for now. Please keep in mind this is a very “right now” forecast. So much could change, even in the next few hours, that would change the track.