9/27/26 Sunday 4:00 am
For today, just a slight chance of afternoon pop-up showers. Later today/tonight, subtropical moisture will be funneled into the forecast area. A flood watch goes into effect on Monday.
Including the cities of Ridgway, Loghill Village, Telluride, Mountain
Village, Ouray, Lake City, Sawpit, Pagosa Springs, Silverton, Rico,
Nucla, Naturita, Norwood, Slick Rock, Cortez, Mancos, Dolores, Dove
Creek, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, Blanding, Goulding, Bluff,
Tselakai Dezza, Aneth, Montezuma Creek, Mexican Hat, Halchita, White
Mesa, Monticello, La Sal, Eastland, Spanish Valley, Fry Canyon, and
Canyonlands National Park
1245 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
* WHERE...Portions of Colorado, including the following areas, Animas
River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, Northwest San Juan
Mountains, Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River, San Juan River
Basin, Southwest San Juan Mountains and Uncompahgre Plateau and
Dallas Divide and southeast Utah, including the following areas,
Canyonlands/Natural Bridges, La Sal and Abajo Mountains and
Southeast Utah.
* WHEN...From Monday morning through Wednesday morning.
* IMPACTS...Flooding will be possible over burn scars, at low-water
crossings, and along creeks, streams, washes, arroyos and other
flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their
banks. Unpaved roads could become muddy and impassable.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of heavy rainfall, associated with remnant moisture from
Hurricane Polo, are expected to produce numerous showers and
embedded thunderstorms. Heavy rain falling on saturated soils and
burn scars could lead to localized flash flooding and rises on
local rivers.
From a local perspective, if you are near a creek, I’d monitor the situation closely. I am looking at you, Vallecito (creek).
——
I have been up a while, having a blast going through models. I will break down the short-term stuff in a minute. But this setup: Polo recurve, followed by what will be known as Rachel, and yes, the potential for another recurve this time into San Diego (great positioning for SW Colorado, still about 10 days out), an early-season cold front or two… Too early to get in too deep here, but does anyone remember October 2011 and October 2018?
I am going to let everyone stew on that while I shift back to this week.
There were a few silly hurricane model runs after my post yesterday. The GFS wins the prize for the worst model run that should never have slipped through the cracks.
Yep. The GFS decides to ignore physics completely. Note the loop-de-loop in the Panhandle, then it gathers strength and marches straight up to Hudson Bay! This is pure meteorological comedy.
I am not going to go through every hurricane model, but the trend shows a track that would bring heavier precipitation to our forecast area than what we saw yesterday. The latest Euro just came in with more aggressive positioning in our favor.
This low seems a little over-developed given its journey. But we will see what the next runs show.
I will be back after noon today.