9/29/26 Tuesday
Several disappointing model runs led me to wait for the latest GFS, which I just reviewed at 4 pm. I am glad I did. Fingers crossed for the afternoon Euro (6 pm to 7 pm).
The morning model runs from GFS and Euro showed precipitation totals of 0.15-0.40″, with higher amounts for Archuleta County. This does not exactly fit the flood watch narrative.
Now the GFS is showing 0.40″ to 0.90″. With higher amounts near Pagosa, and much higher amounts at WCP.
GFS could be hallucinating this run. Or they both were dead wrong this morning. Yesterday morning, reviewing the evening runs, the models showed rain all day today, Wednesday, through Thursday early morning, dropping an additional 3 inches.
The point is, they have been disappointingly off. I am going to defend them for now because of that setup, with the cold front and multiple surface lows, plus two separate tropical moisture taps affecting some of the most diverse terrain in the US. That may just be above their pay grade…
It was/is a rough afternoon, so I am not going to wait for the Euro at 6 pm.
I will be back in the morning.