9/29/26 Tuesday 4 am-6 pm
If you read my post yesterday about right for the wrong reason, I believe that is the path we are headed down.
Yesterday afternoon, hurricane models showed the westward progression; the landfall confirmed their northern track. If everything else in the western US had stayed the same, we would have had another 1 inch of rain overnight, with heavy rain expected today and tomorrow. But it didn’t.
Last night I highlighted the impressive thunderstorm complex at the AZ/UT/NV border.
One of those low-pressure areas tapped into a dry slot, reducing our rain rates from east to west.
Bottom line: I don’t expect much activity directly from the tropical moisture tap itself today. That moisture will likely stay too far south and too far east to affect most of us. I can’t rule out a pop-up shower or three. Residual moisture could be plenty of fuel, if the sun comes out, to trigger storm development. The models are discounting that for now, for what it is worth.
Later today, the latest models show the moisture tracking back over the entire forecast area from south to north. This will likely fuel showers and potentially thunderstorms lasting most of the day on Wednesday. Then, that should be it.
I will be back in the afternoon with a model update.