10/6/26 Tuesday 12:30-2:15 pm
I don’t have much faith in this morning’s deterministic model runs from the GFS and European model right now. Deterministic models are higher resolution but are single model runs. Ensemble models are multi-model runs (typically 25 to 100 members, although Google DeepMind reportedly is already simulating a thousand atmospheric scenarios to produce an average/most likely scenario). The problem with multi-model runs is that they are so low resolution you can’t really use them in our area for a daily forecast.
The GFS still shows a short-duration, monsoonal-style rain dump in the northern forecast area: 1.5″- 2.25″. I would put that scenario at a 5% chance. So likely model error. None of the other models show more than 0.25″.
The Euro is showing a wetter scenario for Sunday; we’ll see. At the same time, it shows mountain freezing rain, not convective graupel or freezing rain, which is impossible at higher elevations. So I am not feeling warm and fuzzy about the old standbys this afternoon.
So that leaves us with the updated multi-model Tropical Cyclone Track models for Rachel.
ATCF
European Ensemble
EuropeanAI /Google DeepMind
Hoping we get some better deterministic runs overnight!