10/6/26 Tuesday 2:30-6:30 am
NOTE: A follower gave me a great suggestion. I have inserted a link to the Precipitation Report page at the very bottom of this update, so you don’t have to navigate the site to report.
Speaking of reports, make sure you enter the date/date range when the precipitation fell so people won’t think it happened on the date you entered.
Today
The GFS has been a huge outlier across the 4 model runs. That is a lot of consistency in what appears to be the “crazy town” solution, showing 1″ to 2″ of rain in the northern triangle (Red Mountain, Telluride, Ouray), with lower totals down to Silverton.
No other model I have access to shows more than 1/10th of that amount. They all show spotty showers at best. However, and it’s notable, PWAT values directly over that area are forecasted to soar to over 200% of average for this afternoon. So we will give it a very low chance, but monitor closely.
Durango Marathon
A very early first look at Sunday’s weather shows temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s at 7 am. Overcast to drizzly, with light rain possible, and temperatures warming to the mid-60s by noon, with light southerly winds. When I was running marathons and ultras in the mid-to-late 90s. I would have considered those conditions perfect!
Rachel Recurve Storm Tracks
All Tropical Cyclone Track models show increasing confidence that Rachel will track closer to us than Polo.
ATCF (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting system)
GFS Multi-Model
European
European AI (Google DeepMind)
California Surfer Alert!
European Wave Model
Crazy! That graph above shows the wave height forecast for next Sunday in feet! This is the peak day, but it won’t be a one-day event; heavy surf will be building all week. I haven’t heard anyone talk about this yet…
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