10/7/26 Wednesday 4:00 am-
Today
As I said a couple of days ago, we’ll be locked into a broken-record forecast until this weekend: A slight chance of light afternoon showers favoring the higher elevations.
By this weekend, the models show an uptick in moisture as the remnants of Rachel lock into a final track.
Durango Marathon
Models are highly unreliable right now with the latest shifts in Hurricane Rachel’s track. At the moment, conditions look like they will be cool and drizzly, perhaps very light rain, and temps ranging from the upper 40s/lower 50s early, rising to the low 60s by noon. This is subject to change
Rachel Tracks
Rachel’s remnants have shifted west in the latest Tropical Cyclone Track models this morning.
ATCF
European Ensemble
EuropeanAI/Google DeepMind
I am not ready to break down what this all means in detail. But here are a couple of thoughts.
- This potentially could increase the amount of precipitation we get.
- This could delay the onset of heavier precipitation, OR lead to a lull between light and heavy precipitation.
If we get consecutive model runs showing this today and tonight, then I will tackle that subject in greater detail tomorrow.