10/9/26 Friday 12:30 pm
Not much has changed since this morning. The Euro, however, corrected with a landfall a couple hundred miles south of the previous run. It still shows tracking over San Diego, just not as a landfall.
Saturday
Light showers are still expected to develop by the late morning or early afternoon, becoming heavier in the evening and overnight.
Sunday
Light showers in the morning, with scattered pockets of moderate showers. By afternoon, showers will become more widespread. By evening, some of those showers will become heavy and last through the night.
Things get a little less clear on Monday. Some models are showing a complete lull until the next batch of moisture arrives Tuesday. Others are showing light, on-and-off showers on Monday.
Models agree moisture and showers return on Tuesday and last through late Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The European is not satisfied, so it is bringing in more moisture Friday and Saturday. I am not convinced that will happen; if it does, it would add an additional 0.50″ to 1.00″. To the total below.
I have not shared maps yet, as we have been tracking this event. It’s time to start. These are from Saturday through Thursday morning
European (keep in mind what I said earlier)
German
NOAA Hi-Res NBM
GFS
AI GFS
European AIFS/ Google DeepMind
I wanted to share many of the precipitation models I look at. Going forward, I will not share more than two or three. Normal post times tomorrow. Expect a Flood Watch to be issued tonight or tomorrow.