Saturday 2:30 am
Before I get started, interesting fact:
I am sure everyone has been hearing the nonstop updates on Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf. It made landfall last night in Destin, FL, as a Category 2 hurricane.
Here is what makes this interesting. The United States had not had a landfalling hurricane in two years. It was two years to the day (October 9th, 2024) when Hurricane Milton made landfall at Siesta Key, FL. Isaias and Milton made landfall within one hour of each other on the same day, two years apart. My late Stepmother was living in Clearwater Beach when Milton hit. I was monitoring the storm for her, her friends, and other island residents.
Meanwhile back in SW Colorado (I felt I needed a segue)…
Precipitable Water values are rising as SW flow moves into the area. Dewpoints are rising as well. Real quick: October dewpoints don’t need to be as high as July dewpoints; it’s all relative to temperature. A 45-degree dew point when it is 60 degrees is much different than a 45-degree dew point when the temperature is 45 degrees; that is 100% saturation.
Today
Light showers are already starting to develop-mostly west of 550 between Mancos and Durango (4:15 am). Light showers will continue to develop throughout the day. By late this afternoon and evening, moderate to occasionally heavier showers will fall through Sunday morning.
Sunday
Right now, light showers will dominate the morning, followed by a significant uptick in coverage by late afternoon and evening.
After Sunday, my confidence in the forecast drops significantly. Until Rachel gets over land, the models will struggle with how it interacts with the cold front and low pressure dropping south into California.
It looks like we’ll transition into on-and-off light showers on Monday as drier air moves over us. On Tuesday, showers appear more widespread throughout the day and taper off in the evening. By Wednesday afternoon, the final piece comes through with occasional moderate to heavy showers.
I can’t leave you hanging after that headline. The last two runs of the Euro show low pressure tapping into what appears to be leftover moisture from Simon late next week. The rain and snow totals the Euro shows would be significant enough to warrant Winter Storm warnings at or above 9,500 feet Friday night and Saturday.
Before you get too excited or worried, the European is the only model showing this. If two or three more model runs show the same solution, we will have to start paying attention.