10 20/26 Tuesday 4 am
What Changed Overnight
For the last week, the European has been showing “leftovers,” extending the rain into the weekend. They were the only model to do this. Guess what? All of the other models crowded into that same solution overnight. One or two more days of moderate rain would greatly increase the totals.
Most models add an extra 1 to 2 inches, on top of the already high projected totals. For now, I am going to set the weekend aside until I can determine what the models are trying to lock onto. In the back of your minds, you can add an extra inch or so to prepare/mentally prepare, if necessary.
Overview
Another day with very slight chances of rain this afternoon and evening; only light accumulations are expected. Last night, many areas picked up 0.10″ to 0.20″, slightly more than I expected. On Wednesday, widespread moderate rain should enter the area by noon.
Noon is 9 hours later than the models showed a couple of days ago. That is why I haven’t been married to start and stop times; this almost always happens with Southern California low-pressure systems. By the way, most of the time, delay = strengthening…
Moderate rain enters the picture by noon on Wednesday; it will get progressively heavier as the day wears on. Moderate to occasionally heavy rain will continue for most of the night into Thursday. On Thursday heavy to very heavy rain will dominate the forecast for at least 24 to 36 hours. As far as we know…
I say that to remind everyone things are constantly evolving; more delays (an even later start on Wednesday) wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Here are the overnight weather models’ forecast for event precipitation through Friday afternoon (only).
NBM (NOAA): This usually conservative model continues to spread high totals across the entire forecast area. It is the only model (so far) that has not bought off on the weekend rains. As soon as it does, I’ll be all in. If I had to bet, I would say we will see that happen by later today.
European
German
Canadian
I will be back between 1 and 4 pm today. Please check it out in case there are changes.