10/29/26 Thursday 5 am
I need some time this morning to reevaluate what we went through at the last event, compare the model runs from before the event, and the delivery duration for total precipitation. So my update will be later today, not out of laziness, but because I’m genuinely concerned for our area.
When I see this, these were the two most accurate models last event.
And this
And then I read this from NWS:
Deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and will increase the chances for impactful precipitation for southwest CO Sunday and Monday. - River flooding seems unlikely, but localized impacts due to rainfall on saturated soils are expected.
Then I see this:
I have to be very careful here because my head is about to explode. All of these things cannot be true at once.
So I am forcing myself into a timeout study break to double-check everything. If the NWS thought process is that most of the high-elevation precipitation will be snow, therefore, “flooding seems unlikely”, then we have a whole other set of concerns, like 3+ to 5 feet of snow at Wolf Creek.
Yesterday, I said if the models were as high or higher than this afternoon’s precipitation totals, I would be pressing the panic button. I am there right now, but I need to catch my breath and spend some more time on this.