11/02/26 Monday 4 pm
Wrap Up
I feel like, as I saw this developing, I didn’t hold back my concerns. I questioned the River People; I questioned the mappers; I questioned the models, while questioning myself in the background.
It is certainly worse in La Plata County and Durango than what was forecast. I appreciate everyone’s support and kind and encouraging words. I will continue to do what I do, when necessary, going against the early narratives about these storms.
Here is an early Christmas present from one of my data/analytical firms I use.
With the weather slowing down, my plan is to talk about the Polar Vortex, which weather nerds call an SSW, a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event. Polar, warming, cold outbreak? Yes.
I will also talk about why El Niño is not “on its way”; it is peaking and going to drop, bringing us a snowy winter. We don’t like Strong El Niños here. We like declining El Niños, or moderating La Niñas, or ENSO neutral, AKA La Nada. The heaviest snowfall winters happened in neutral ENSO events, not El Niño or La Niña. Knocking on early 1970s 500-inch seasons at Purgatory. I am not getting into that debate, but I have some old ski patrol records that are pretty cool.