11/12/26 Thursday Noon
Thanks to those of you who pointed out that in the morning’s post, I accidentally referred to the top right of one of the maps when I meant the top left. I told you I was running low on fuel while I was writing.
For the first time in a while, I am leaving the GFS and European out of the model lineup in this post. The European in particular had some crazy ideas about the next three storms.
It showed the highest totals for the storms in the last several runs. But then, for the last storm, it somehow showed SW Flow into our area while showing SSE flow into the Front Range. Then it found a cold clipper system to drag over the area, bringing low-elevation snow for Thanksgiving Eve and Day. HMMMM.
I am still going to concentrate on this first storm through Friday; then, on Saturday morning, I will spend more time on the other two.
Liquid-equivalent precipitation total for Saturday’s storm.
Canadian
German
NOAA NBM
RRFS
This is a “new” NOAA model that officially went live today. In reality, it has been available in experimental mode for months. This model seems almost designed for our forecast area’s complex, varied terrain with very high resolution. I did use it when forecasting both floods.
This one came out of the gate swinging! These forecast totals are for Saturday only.
If this model is correct, we are going to get a lot more than we bargained for. It also indicates snow levels starting at 9,500 ft, then dropping to 8,000 ft a couple of hours into the storm.
Here is its snow forecast for Saturday
So if correct, this is a big change from what other models and forecasters are expecting.
Next update Friday morning, unless I see something come out this afternoon that backs up this model’s higher totals.