11/10/26 Tuesday 5 am
On Sunday I said this:
“If we believe the models, we may see a pattern change first affecting the West Coast around November 12th. By a week from today(11/15), moisture is expected to move into Arizona and New Mexico, mostly missing us, but another storm is on its heels that looks more promising. All models show this, though timing varies.”
What has changed:
The “mostly missing us moisture” moisture comes ashore 24 hours later, in the form of a cut-off low-pressure system entrained with a moderate amount of moisture.
It is going to dig further south, missing us, as expected. But not before paving the way.
Saturday morning: missed us.
Saturday morning: next system with moisture tap
Saturday afternoon (most likely will not arrive that quickly)
Zoomed-pretty juicy. Saturday afternoon (I think the timing will change). Snow level indicated at 8,000 feet.
Sunday morning (timing will likely change).
Fast forward to Monday night, November 16th. A much bigger storm with several pieces is on the way. I put the maps in motion; it’s easier to track. This is basically the week, from Monday night 11/16 to Sunday morning 11/22.
Zoomed-in version
Important to note that a lot can change in the details, timing, track, and intensity, as you should know. However, I do believe the pattern is changing. If the above monster verifies, we would snow in the lower elevations.
Probably a good time to stop. Normally, I wouldn’t share this much this far out, but the boring weather pattern is getting to me, and I wanted to let you know changes are likely, especially with ski areas opening soon and possible holiday travel.