Nice Today, Rain Tomorrow

Published Sunday, May 30th at 7:25 am

Sunday should be a pleasant day. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday. Clouds should be decreasing throughout the day. Between noon and 6 pm, wind gusts will make a return. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph, with isolated gusts up to 30 mph will be possible this afternoon. I don’t expect any thunderstorms over the area today.

As I mentioned Friday, showers return to the area on Monday. Over the last 48 hours, the models have slowed the development of the showers by 6 to 8 hours. Showers will first start in the higher elevations tomorrow morning. Showers should become more widespread by mid to late morning.

The models are in slightly better agreement on precipitation amounts. The Euro has fallen more in line with the other models. The exception is the GFS which is focusing on the northern portions of the forecast area. If the GFS is correct, little to no rain will fall in the lower and middle elevation areas. We’ll see.

Here are the precipitation forecast model runs for the 3 models that are in better agreement.

Euro

German

Canadian

The next update will be Monday morning, enjoy the rest of the extended weekend. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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Final Forecast For The Iron Horse Bicycle Classic

Updated at 4 am Saturday

Here is the updated forecast for Saturday. Once again, the main changes are slight variations in wind directions and wind speeds.  We should have a slightly cooler start to the morning than the weather models had been predicting. The winds look like they will be slightly calmer than what was being predicted yesterday. Precipitation chances should be below 10% before 1 pm. From 2 pm on, we will have a 15% to 20% chance of thunderstorms for the passes and Silverton.

I have edited the summary and forecast grids with the changes.

At the start time in Durango, the temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds for the event will start out of the northeast. The winds will transition by mid-morning from the southeast to the south. Between noon and 3 pm, winds will range from 10 mph to 15 mph. The high temperature in Durango on Saturday will peak from the low to mid-80s. The high temperature in Silverton will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Skies will start off mostly sunny, becoming partly cloudy by mid-morning and ending up mostly cloudy by this afternoon. At this point, there is a 10% to 20% chance of very light precipitation between noon and 4 pm on the passes and in Silverton.

Here are the details.

Durango

6 am Temp 41 to 44 degrees, winds N 3 to 5 mph

7 am Temp 46 to 48 degrees, winds N 2 to 4 mph

8 am Temp 52 to 55 degrees, winds ENE 2 to 4 mph

High temperature for Saturday 82 to 84 degrees

Purgatory

7 am Temp 41 to 44 degrees, winds E 2 to 4 mph

8 am Temp 49 to 52 degrees, winds ESE 3 to 5 mph

9 am Temp 55 to 59 degrees, winds ESE 3 to 5 mph

10 am Temp 60 to 63 degrees, winds SE 5 to 7 mph

11 am Temp 64 to 66 degrees, winds S 8 to 10 mph

Coal Bank Pass

7 am Temp 4o to 42 degrees, wind chill 38 to 40, winds ESE 4 to 6 mph

8 am Temp 45 to 49 degrees, wind chill 45, winds ESE 4 to 6 mph

9 am Temp 50 to 52 degrees, winds ESE 4 to 6 mph

10 am Temp 52 to 54 degrees, winds ESE 6 to 8 mph

11 am Temp 54 to 56 degrees, winds S to 10 mph.

Noon Temp 56 to 58 degrees, winds S 8 to 10 mph.

Molas Pass 

8 am Temp 45 to 47 degrees, winds ESE 2 to 4

9 am Temp 51 to 53 degrees,  winds ESE 3 to 5 mph

10 am Temp 54 to 56 degrees, winds SE 5 to 7 mph

11 am Temp 56 to 58 degrees, winds S 7 to 9 mph

Noon  Temp 59 to 61 degrees, winds S 10 to 12 mph

1 pm Temp 59 to 61 degrees, winds S 10 to 12mph

2 pm Temp 59 to 61 degrees, winds  S 12 to 14  mph

Silverton

9 am Temp 50 to 52 degrees, winds SE 2 to 4 mph

10 am Temp 56 to 58 degrees, winds SSE  4 to 6 mph

11 am Temp 62 to 64 degrees, winds S 6 to 8 mph

12 pm Temp 66 to 68 degrees, winds S 10 to 12 mph

1 pm Temp 68 to 70 degrees, winds S 12 to 14 mph

2 pm Temp 69 to 71 degrees, winds S 12 to 14 mph

3 pm Temp 69 to 71 degrees, winds S 12 to 14

 

 

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Updated Weekend Forecast

Published Friday 5/28/21 at 1:15 pm

Summary

A very nice day is in store for Saturday. High temperatures will peak in the low to mid 80s in Durango. In the high elevations high temperatures will top out between 60 and 70 degrees. In the mid-elevation areas high temps will range from the mid 70s to 80. There is a very slight risk of showers and thunderstorms above 9,000 feet after 12 pm.

Sunday will start off similar to Saturday. Temperatures will be similar to Saturday. Clouds will be on the increase throughout the day. The mid and higher elevations will see slightly higher chances of showers and storms developing late in the day. There will be just a very slight risk of storms developing in the lower elevations.

Overnight Sunday precipitation will build into the higher elevations. Snow will be possible at or above 9,000 feet early Monday morning. The precipitation will become more widespread on Monday. Temperatures will be cooler.

Model Runs

Here are the model forecasts for precipitation throughout the day on Monday. At the moment, the Euro is showing much higher totals than the other models. June is our driest month, so kicking off the month with precipitation would be a real treat!

Prior to our big rain event last weekend, the models were all to low with their precipitation forecasts. Hopefully, that will be the case again.

Canadian

GFS

German

Euro

I hope everyone has a great holiday weekend. I will be updating throughout the weekend. Thanks for following!

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Official Forecast For Saturday’s Iron Horse Ride

For those of you not attending or participating in Saturday’s big event, I will be posting a “regular” weather update this afternoon.

Here is the updated forecast for Saturday. The biggest changes are slight variations in wind directions and wind speeds with slightly warmer temperatures. Winds will be slightly higher in the afternoon, but the weather models are not showing the gusts that were there earlier. The other change is a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 12 pm. The model consensus is showing .01″ of precipitation. This indicates to me that if showers do develop, they may not make it to the surface before evaporating. That being said, this is something I am watching very closely.

I have edited the summary and forecast grids with the changes.

Updated Friday 5/28/21 at 10 am

The big day for the IHBC is going to be the nicest day of the week and one of the nicest days this spring! At the start time in Durango, the temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s. Winds for the event will start out of the northeast. But will transition by mid-morning to the south and southwest. Between noon and 3 pm winds will be between 12 and 18 mph. The high temperature in Durango on Saturday will peak near the mid-80s with high temperatures in Silverton around 70 degrees. Skies will start clear and end up partly cloudy towards the end of the day. At this point, there is a 20% chance of very light precipitation between noon and 4 pm on the passes and in Silverton.

Here are the details.

Durango

6 am Temp 44 to 46 degrees, winds N 5 to 7 mph

7 am Temp 48 to 50 degrees, winds N 4 to 6 mph

8 am Temp 54 to 56 degrees, winds NE 2 to 4 mph

High temperature for Saturday 83 to 85 degrees

Purgatory

7 am Temp 46 to 48 degrees, winds ENE 2 to 4 mph

8 am Temp 52 to 54 degrees, winds ENE 3 to 5 mph

9 am Temp 58 to 60 degrees, winds ENE 3 to 5 mph

10 am Temp 61 to 63 degrees, winds E 4 to 6 mph

11 am Temp 64 to 66 degrees, winds S 8 to 10 mph

Coal Bank Pass

7 am Temp 42 to 44 degrees, wind chill 38 to 40, winds E 4 to 6 mph

8 am Temp 47 to 49 degrees, wind chill 45, winds ESE 4 to 6 mph

9 am Temp 51 to 53 degrees, winds S 5 to 7 mph

10 am Temp 54 to 56 degrees, winds S 6 to 8 mph

11 am Temp 56 to 58 degrees, winds SSW 7 to 10 mph.

Noon Temp 56 to 58 degrees, winds SSW 8 to 10 mph.

Molas Pass

8 am Temp 45 to 47 degrees, winds ESE 2 to 4

9 am Temp 51 to 53 degrees,  winds ESE 3 to 5 mph

10 am Temp 55 to 57 degrees, winds SE 5 to 7 mph

11 am Temp 58 to 60 degrees, winds S 7 to 9 mph

Noon  Temp 59 to 61 degrees, winds SSW 12 to 14 mph

1 pm Temp 60 to 62 degrees, winds SSW 10 to 12mph

2 pm Temp 60 to 62 degrees, winds  SW 16 to 18  mph

Silverton

9 am Temp 54 to 56 degrees, winds SW 2 to 4 mph

10 am Temp 62 to 64 degrees, winds SW  3 to 5 mph

11 am Temp 62 to 64 degrees, winds SW 6 to 8 mph

12 pm Temp 66 to 68 degrees, winds SSW 12 to 14 mph

1 pm Temp 68 to 70 degrees, winds SSW 12 to 14 mph

2 pm Temp 69 to 71 degrees, winds SW 14 to 16 mph

3 pm Temp 69 to 71 degrees, winds SW 15 to 17

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Results From The Contest

Friday 5/28 @ Noon

Here are the names of the winners. If the name has a ** next to it indicates I have not heard from that person yet. There are 4 people I have not heard from. At some point next week, if I have not heard from these folks I will have to draw alternate winners. If you know these people have them contact me.

A big thanks to all who participated and all of the businesses who donated prizes!

Cash

$250 prize:  Florine Morrison

(3 )$150 prizes:  Mary Krause, Darryl Kuntz, Sarah Riling

(3) $100 prizes:  Zea Beaver, Rachel McCausland, Chuck Frederick

(3) $75 prizes:  Lisa Greene, Barbara Lawson, William Poillion**

(3) $50 prizes:  Michael Hicks, Jim Ketter, Ninfa Montano

Food 10 Prizes
(2) $50 gift cards from Eolus:  Mark Latham, Angela Schultz

(2) $50 gift cards from PJ’s Market:  Tom Curmano, Cathy Nealon

(2) $50 gift cards from Peak Beverage which can be used at any of their three locations: Steamworks, El Moro, or Birds:  Kristen Henschel, Rebecca Clark

(1 )$25 gift card from Zia Taqueria:  Alex Shaw

(1) $25 gift card from Sage Farm Fresh Eats:  Chris Sylvia

(2) $20 gift cards (two winners) from Silver Bean coffee shop: Lisa Taylor, Gordon Jones**

Other Good Stuff 9 Prizes
(1) $100 gift card/certificate from Four Seasons Greenhouse and Nursery, Inc: Kevin Camp

(1) $60 massage therapy gift certificate from Pine River Chiropractic: Greg Roth

(2) $50 gift cards to Pine Needle Mountaineering:  Jeremiah Foose, Thomas Clendening

(1) One-night stay at a “mountain glamping tipi”: Micah Guthrie**

(1) One-night stay at O Bar O Cabins:  Lisa Price

(3) $50 gift cards to Star Liquors:  Arthur Van Der Harten, Lauren Heather Gieda, Vivian Homza**

A round of golf for 4 including carts at Hillcrest Golf Course:  Richard Scherer

The weather still looks great for Saturday. A slight chance of showers Sunday. Rainy on Monday. I will have more details later today. Thanks for following!

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Contest Update And Forecast For Saturday And Sunday

Thursday 5/27 9 am

Just a quick update on the contest. I have heard from all but 7 of the contest winners. There may be an issue with people having outdated email addresses attached to their PayPal account. Thank you, to those of you that already contacted me to give me an updated email address. I had to draw one alternate winner for someone who declined the prize.

This weekend Saturday looks like a great day for the ride. There may be a slight chance of a light rain shower near Silverton after 4 pm.

Here is the info I gave the organizers.

The big day for the IHBC is going to be the nicest day of the week and one of the nicest days this spring! At the start time in Durango, the temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s with light inconsequential winds. Winds for the event will be out of the south to the southwest which will provide a tailwind for riders. Winds will become more of an issue on the passes and in Silverton for the end of the event as there will be scattered gusts up to 20 mph out of the south to southwest.  High temperatures in Durango on Saturday will peak near the mid-80s with high temperatures in Silverton around 70 degrees. Skies will start clear and end up partly cloudy towards the end of the day. At this point, there is no chance of precipitation. 

Here are the details. 

Durango 

6 am Temp 44 to 46 degrees, winds NE 2 to 4 mph

7 am Temp 48 to 50 degrees, winds ENE 2 to 4 mph

8 am Temp 54 to 56 degrees, winds E 3 to 5 mph

High temperature for Saturday 82 to 84 degrees

Purgatory

7 am Temp 46 to 48 degrees, winds E 3 to 5 mph

8 am Temp 52 to 54 degrees, winds SE 4 to 6 mph

9 am Temp 56 to 58 degrees, winds SSE 5 to 7 mph

10 am Temp 60 to 62 degrees, winds S 7 to 9 mph

11 am Temp 62 to 64 degrees, winds S 8 to 10 mph

Coal Bank Pass

7 am Temp 42 to 44 degrees, wind chill 38 to 40, winds SE 3 to 5 mph

8 am Temp 47 to 49 degrees, wind chill 45, winds S 3 to 5 mph

9 am Temp 51 to 53 degrees, winds S 5 to 7 mph

10 am Temp 54 to 56 degrees, winds SSW 6 to 8 mph

11 am Temp 56 to 58 degrees, winds SSW 7 to 10 mph, gusts 18 to 20

Noon Temp 56 to 58 degrees, winds SSW 8 to 10 mph, gusts up to 20

Molas Pass

8 am Temp 44 to 46 degrees, wind chill 42, winds S 5 to 7

9 am Temp 50 to 52 degrees, wind chill 46 to 48, winds S 6 to 8 mph

10 am Temp 53 to 55 degrees, winds SSW 7 to 9 mph

11 am Temp 56 to 58 degrees, winds SSW 8 to 10 mph

Noon  Temp 57 to 59 degrees, winds SSW 10 to 12 mph, gusts to 20

1 pm Temp 59 to 61 degrees, winds SSW 10 to 12mph, gusts to 20

2 pm Temp 60 to 62 degrees, winds 10 to 12 mph, gusts to 20

Silverton

9 am Temp 50 to 52 degrees, winds S 7 to 9 mph

10 am Temp 57 to 59 degrees, winds S 8 to 10 mph

11 am Temp 62 to 64 degrees, winds SSW 8 to 10 mph gusts to 20

Noon Temp 66 to 68 degrees, winds SSW 10 to 12 mph, gusts to 22 mph

1 pm Temp 68 to 70 degrees, winds SSW 10 to 12 mph, gusts to 22 mph

2 pm Temp 69 to 71 degrees, winds SSW 10 to 12 mph, gusts to 20 mph

3 pm Temp 69 to 71 degrees, winds SSW 10 to 12 mph

Sunday

Sunday morning in Durango the temperature should be 53 to 55 degrees at 8 am. The winds will start off light out of the east around 3 to 5 mph. Skies will be partly cloudy. By 10 am the temperature will be between 60 to 65 degrees. Winds are expected to shift and will be out of the southeast at 6 to 8 mph. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny between 10 am and noon. By noon the temperatures will have climbed to 72 to 74 degrees. The winds will be transitioning to the south-southwest. Between noon and 4 pm, the skies will be partly cloudy with southwest winds between 10 to 12 mph. Wind gusts will be possible up to 20 mph, between 3 and 4 pm a few gusts could be as high as 25 mph. The temperature will range from 75 to 80 degrees. Between noon and 5 pm, there will be a 20% chance of thunderstorms.
The higher elevations on Sunday will have a slightly better chance of thunderstorms.
I will be updating this information each day and throughout the day on Saturday.
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The Drawing Is Complete!

Tuesday 5/25 2:45 pm

I have emailed all of the winners. Check your email if you have not done that this afternoon yet. If you did win, please reply to my email so I know that you got it. Last year a few people declined the prizes and I had to pick new winners. So I will wait until I hear back from everyone before I release the winner’s names publicly. I also won’t be notifying the businesses with your names until I hear back.

Thanks so much for participating and congratulations to all of the winners!

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Deadline For Entering The Contest Is At Noon Today (Tuesday)

5/25/21 Tuesday 6:15 am

In case you missed it on Sunday, 3 new cash prizes were added. A round of golf for 4, including carts, at Hillcrest Golf Course valued at $275 was also added. Now you have 32 chances to win! Details: The Second Annual Contest Drawing Updated 5/23/21

At noon, I will add the names of any new entrants to the existing participants. I will then draw the names of the 32 winners. I will contact the winners by email when I hear back from all of them I will post the names. Hopefully, I will hear back from everyone in time to post all of the names tomorrow. I will be delivering the cash prizes in person. Last year I met people at the Rec Center parking lot which worked out well. If you are active on PayPal or Venmo, I can deliver the cash electronically.  I have some of the gift cards in my possession which I will deliver as well. The other gift cards will be available for pick up at the businesses that donated them.

Thanks for participating!

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Memorial Day Weekend–First Look

Published Monday 5/24 at 6:15 am

In case you missed it, yesterday I added 3 new cash prizes to the contest. There are now 12 cash prizes available. Additionally, a round of golf at Hillcrest for 4 (including carts), a$275 value, was kindly donated. There are now 32 chances to win. Details are here: The Second Annual Contest Drawing Updated 5/23/21

I have started getting emails about next weekend. It is something I am watching very closely. This year, I will be providing forecasts and weather guidance to the organizers and participants in the Iron Horse Classic! https://www.ironhorsebicycleclassic.com/

A ridge of high pressure looks like it will be dominating the weather through Sunday. The storm track will push systems to our north and east. A couple of high altitude pop-up storms can’t be ruled out Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. At the moment the weekend looks clear and warm. A chance of showers may return Monday afternoon.

On Tuesday, I will be providing organizers with a more detailed preliminary forecast. That will be updated before Thursday when they will be sharing that forecast with participants. I will share it here when I finish it.

I can say that I am happy that we will have a nice stretch of “boring” weather over the next week.

Thanks for following and participating in the contest!

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The Second Annual Contest Drawing Updated 5/23/21

Sunday 5/23/2021

The deadline for entering the contest is Tuesday, May 25th at noon!

3 new cash prizes were just added. A round of golf for 4 including carts at Hillcrest Golf Course valued at $275 was also added. Now you have 32 chances to win!

The Prize List

Cash 12 Prizes

A $250 prize. (2 )$150 prizes. (3) $100 prizes. (3) $75 prizes and (3) $50 prizes.

Food 10 Prizes

(2)  $50 gift cards from Eolus (two winners). https://www.eolusdurango.com/ (2) $50 gift cards (two winners) from PJ’s Market https://pjsgourmetmarket.com/ (2) $50 gift cards (two winners) from Peak Beverage which can be used at any of their three locations:  Steamworks, El Moro, or Bird’s. https://www.birdsdurango.com/ https://steamworksbrewing.com/  https://elmorotavern.com/    (1 )$25 gift card from Zia Taqueria  https://ziataqueria.com/  (1) $25 gift card from Sage Farm Fresh Eats https://sagefarmfresheats.com/  (2) $20 gift cards (two winners) form Silver Bean coffee shop https://www.facebook.com/thesilverbean/

Other Good Stuff 9 Prizes

(1) $100 gift card/certificate from Four Seasons Greenhouse and Nursery, Inc. https://fourseasonsgreenhouse.com/  (1) $60 massage therapy gift certificate from Pine River Chiropractic  https://www.prchiro.com/  (2) $50 gift cards to Pine Needle Mountaineering https://www.pineneedle.com/ (1) One-night stay at a “mountain glamping tipi” https://www.durangolikealocal.com/  (1) One-night stay at O Bar O Cabins. Perfect for summer guests!   (3) $50 gift cards to Star Liquors http://www.starliquorsdurango.com/

And finally, a round of golf for 4 including carts at Hillcrest Golf Course. http://www.golfhillcrest.com/

The drawing for the contest will be Tuesday, May 26th. That is less than a month from now.

If you have a local business and want to participate just shoot me an email. The deadline for letting me know if you want to donate a gift card is Friday, May 21st.

All you have to do to enter is donate. Within 24 hours I will send you an email confirming your entry.

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