11/1/26 Sunday 1:50 pm
Just out- I have no other updates; the river people have not updated yet. Fingers crossed we will get info before tonight.
“LPCAlerts! – La Plata County Office of Emergency Management:
DANGEROUS SITUATION ACROSS LA PLATA COUNTY. The La Plata County Sheriff is temporarily closing all County roads. Dangerous flood conditions and debris flows, all residents are asked to remain home until further notice. LPCAlerts will update when conditions change. Questions: 970-385-8700″
11/1/26 Sunday 9 am
These are all going to change. I just don’t know how often the river people will update today. I can’t imagine that, in the midst of historic flooding, they’d wait another 12 hours of the event’s heaviest rain to do another update.
Dolores: They didn’t update the data for lower or Rico locations. I did not leave you out intentionally.
These were the most accurate models with the last flood; These are their forecast totals from 5 am this morning to last drop and flake.
Canadian
11/1/26 Saturday
Current Radar
The heaviest rains are yet to come. Right now, they are aimed straight at us. I am not sure if that convective banding will make it up here; if it does, we could get some strong thunderstorms this afternoon
Nothing like watching it rain on the Purgatory, Wolf Creek, and Telluride webcams and snow stakes.
Here are the latest hydrographs. This first batch will be for the most critical locations (Above Flood Stage). So if you don’t see the location you are looking for, it will be in the next batch.
Pagosa got worse, again.
11/1/26 Sunday 3:30 am
I am waiting for the river people to update before I post the hydrographs. They updated at 10 pm last night with big changes. Things are looking much worse.
Animas at Durango (both sites) are forecast to be over action stage; I see nothing that will stop them from going higher.
Pagosa Springs is going to be devastated. The last flood 10 days ago hit 15.2 feet; it is now forecast to peak at 19.7 feet.
Mancos River is forecast to hit historic levels. La Plata River at Hesperus is forecast to hit historic levels. Dolores at Rico is forecast to peak within inches of where it was 10 days ago.
Animas at Silverton is forecast to equal the peak from 10 days ago. Animas at Farmington is already forecast to hit within 7 inches of 10 days ago.
Rain started about 6 hours earlier than the models had forecast. So the River models were not only using lagging data last night; they were using incorrect data. As I said, when the new forecasts come out, I will post full details. I just wanted to give everyone an overview to read when they woke up.
10/31/26 Saturday 2:00 pm
I have been waiting and hoping that the river people update their forecasts. But it does not look like that is going to happen. I hope they have more updates tomorrow than 1. That would be irresponsible given the situation, especially Pagosa, forecast to hit 4 1/2 feet above “Major Flooding Stage” with 11,432 cfs (flood stage is 4476 cfs)
About 40 minutes after my preliminary update on the areas forecast to exceed prior flood levels, NWS GJT put out flood warnings for affected areas. Nice to see them changing their tune (again).
I have a couple of models to share: one I have used before, the other- not before current pre-storm prep.
First, the NBM: I have used it a lot over the last few weeks. It is a high-resolution model that smooths low-resolution multi-model solutions. The good about that is it takes multiple model runs from “model members”.– Got very close to the rabbit hole there. Why do they call it that? Do rabbits live in a hole?- See, I told you.
I will save all of that for a boring weather post; it’s a good idea to talk about the differences between the weather models.
Been awake since 1 am, not an excuse-anyway.
Here is the NBM
These totals are higher than yesterday’s, before last night’s/overnight’s precipitation. It does a good job with elevation (un)smoothing.
I have not mentioned this before, but look at the bottom right of the precip map. See that “Max 6.78″? You can match that with the colors; in this case, the three potential areas that the models predict that 6.78” of liquid equivalent precipitation could fall are La Platas, Wolf Creek, or the Southeast San Juans (south of Wolf Creek).
Now another new one in the lineup. It’s an experimental NOAA model ready to officially replace the NAM3k next year.
It is RRFS (Rapid Refresh Forecast System); NOAA calls it “next generation”. I can’t confirm its accuracy yet; I haven’t spent enough time with it, and I’m anxious to see how it verifies. Right now, it could be my favorite model, especially this winter.
It is a convection-allowing model suite built on an FV3 dynamical core… I did it again.
Here it is, bottom line: my first reaction was that the model handles elevation in our area the way it really is. You may have heard me say in the past, “this model run is impressive, but there is absolutely no way this could possibly happen”. This model is exactly the opposite.
Look up by Purgatory: It actually registers the lower elevation at Purgatory at 550 versus the peaks on either side. Same thing with Animas heading up to Silverton.
My biggest concerns are the bullseyes where we don’t need them-Above Vallecito, Wolf Creek, and the La Platas.
Very excited about turning the clocks back; that means I get model data an hour earlier! (nerd)
10/31/26 Saturday 9:30 am
I’m just posting the forecast Above Flood Stage locations for the time being. The current forecast for the Animas in Durango (both locations) is near Action Stage. I don’t expect it to stay there.
As I have said, these river forecasts lag the latest forecasts. What I have been seeing in the models is snow levels rising tomorrow to near or above 11,000 ft. Snow levels remain high until between 10 pm Sunday and 12 am Monday, when they finally drop below 10,000 feet. Again, that is dependent on the cool front showing up on time.
The weather models are not backing down at all from their aggressive precipitation forecasts
Rain falling tomorrow on last night’s snow may be problematic.
Forecast Above Previous Flood Event
Forecast Above Flood Stage
I will post again this afternoon, or when there are any meaningful changes.
10/31/26 Saturday 9:00 am
I will post all of the details, but I wanted to get the word out ASAP.
The following locations are now forecast to exceed the last event flow and height levels.
San Juan at Pagosa Springs; La Plata River at Hesperus; La Plata River at Stateline; La Plata River at Farmington; Mancos River at Mancos; Animas at Cedar Hill.
It will take me a while to load the hydrographs; I will be back as soon as I can get them loaded up. This is what I feared…
10/31/26 Saturday 3:00 am
Concerns:
10/30/26 Friday 1:30 pm
Updates:
Not a big enough change to talk about with the precipitation models. Except for the areas I can’t monitor: Junction, Lightner, Tripp Creek, Hermosa. Hi-res models pinpoint an area in the La Platas that would feed all of those creeks.
The river people (CBRFC) don’t update a lot. I think we may see some changes in their modeling after the first portion of the storm arrives tonight through tomorrow afternoon.
Changes can happen very quickly, and they may not reflect reality until 12 hours or less before we reach peak. I will try to balance peak forecasts versus reality as we go. Not saying that in an “I am smarter than them tone. Not even close. I am saying their forecasts seem to lag the data, which is common in this field.
Forecasts are for 0.30 to 1.1 inches of liquid equivalent by late tomorrow afternoon. Quite a spread, but in 80% of precipitation events over the last few months, most locations received higher totals than forecast guidance. The heavier stuff arrives Sunday morning.
Snow levels are changing very little. I will spend more time on this subject as we go. As I mentioned this morning, and this is important: Snow levels tonight and early Saturday morning will be lower than they will be throughout the day Sunday. I just don’t want people to get their hopes up with the lower snow levels tomorrow and think that will be the level for the entire event.
Telluride will likely see snow levels dropping Sunday night much earlier than the SW San Juans and mid-elevation areas.
Flooding Potential:
San Juan River at Pagosa: Now forecast to exceed flood stage by Monday! Florida at Bondad is already forecast to hit 2 inches within last event peak.
The following locations are already forecast to be at the action stage (likely above) on Monday: Mancos River at Mancos; La Plata River at Hesperus; La Plata River at the state line; La Plata River at Farmington; Animas at Bondad; Animas River at Cedar Hill; Animas River at Farmington; Los Pinos near Vallecito; Navajo River at Chromo.
I will be back in the morning.
10/30/26 Friday 5:00 am
Changes:
Here is the Excessive Rain Outlook (ERO) from the Weather Prediction Center for Sunday Morning through Monday morning: We don’t often see such a high risk.
Here is a list of the rivers and locations already forecast to be at or above action stage by (or before) Monday; this list will likely get much longer.
San Juan River at Pagosa, Mancos River at Mancos, La Plata River at Hesperus, La Plata River at State line, La Plata River at Farmington, Animas River at Cedar Hill, Animas River at Farmington, Los Pinos near Vallecito, Navajo at Chromo.
I am not going to load the hydrographs yet because it’s all going to change…
Models: From low to high
European
German
WPC: If you look real close, there is a 5.33″ bullseye right over La Platas
UKMET
GFS AI
Canadian
I will be back around 1 pm. Looks like another busy weekend!
