Saturday Mid Morning Update-Breen/CR 140 Area

On October 24, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

Saturday 10:50 am

A very potent thunderstorm is taking place. I saw the cell on both radars, and a weather station was directly under it.

These cells coming up from New Mexico are getting some orographic lift, which is intensifying them. They are stronger than the one that hit me this morning.

This particular location is south of Breen, just south of Harrison Lane. They already had 2.8″ this morning. I was watching peak rainfall rates of 10.01″ per hour!

Be vigilant; this is what I was concerned about. Cells like this can hit any location in the forecast area!

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Saturday Update: Weekend Showers And Thunderstorms

On October 24, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/24/26 Saturday 3:30 am- 6:30 am

I haven’t addressed this in a while, but the time I put at the beginning of each post is when I sit down at my desk and start perusing the models. I am trying to get into the habit of putting the time I finish before I hit the publish button.

Overview: Wet likes to stay wet… Showers and thunderstorms today, tonight, and tomorrow, moving out of the area late Sunday. The heaviest rain will fall today.

This should give way to 4 or 5 days of temporarily dry weather while the storm track retreats north of our area.

Then, Friday night into Saturday, models are advertising another multi-day storm. I know. It’s becoming a familiar setup: a west coast low-pressure system combines with tropical moisture and gets funneled into our area. It’s too early to dig into this. I will need to see a couple more days of model runs before I have any confidence in the details

News?

I am not sure when this happened, but the local radar is working; at least in Durango, I noticed it last night. It is doing exactly what it is supposed to do. It picks up the activity below the Grand Junction/National Radar.

“La Plata Live Radar” (these radar screenshots were taken at 5:20 am)

BUT, you can’t rely on it 100%; it has a very limited range, so you need to check both local radar and the site’s Hi-Res Radar. These screenshots were taken at the same time (5:20 am)

“Hi-Res Radar”

To switch between the two, click the layers icon at the top left of the screen, right above the full-screen button. For the La Plata Live Radar, I like to switch to “Dark” mode; for Hi-Res, I leave it on “Satellite” mode.

Fingers crossed it works this well in the winter!

Current Weather

So far, the activity has been spotty, but when the first storm blew up over my neighborhood at 4 am, I got brief heavy rain that dropped 0.20″ in a couple of minutes. The rainfall rate briefly hit 3.57″ per hour.

Since then, I have had occasional on-and-off showers (here comes another one at 6:20 am). It appears the La Plata radar has a little longer lag time than the national radar.

Based upon this early activity, I fear the models are severely underforecasting this weekend event, and I am very concerned! I feel like I am doing a play-by-play here: this latest cell briefly measured rain intensity of 4.09″/hr.

I already have had 0.61″ up here in DW2. It’s going to be a long day!

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River Forecast Site Issues- Don’t Buy It!

On October 23, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

Friday 5 pm

It occurs to me that these stage and flow forecasts are displaying a baseline recession curve. That means they show what would happen without any more rain.

This is what happened with the Dolores River and Mancos River when I woke up cranky and got in trouble (again) this morning. If you missed it, we went two days with CBRFC (NOAA’s Colorado Basin River Forecast Center) forecasting no problems with the Dolores River, while the experts (local residents) emailed me with their concerns. I woke up at 3 am this morning, and their forecast peak was over action stage.

Dolores locals (many whitewater rafters who understand all of this better than I) tell me they are concerned that, at a certain level, the river will take back its historic floodplain. It’s called channel avulsion. Water doesn’t like to be engineered; eventually, water wins.

In the railroad days of the late 1800s and early 1900s, they literally moved the Dolores River to protect the tracks and support a new town layout.

Then early October 1911, a massive Eastern Pacific Hurricane recurved and turned a firehose over what is now our forecast area (sound familiar?). The Dolores River re-occupied (for a while) its former home.

This was the same storm that flooded Durango in 1911, and Pagosa, and everywhere in our forecast area. The Animas blew right through Durango with 25,000 cfs, washing out the bridges at 15th Street—including the Denver & Rio Grande railroad bridge right where the train used to cross —even after they desperately parked coal railcars on it to try to weigh it down (geniuses)…

Sorry, huge rabbit hole.

Whatever I do, I am not going to talk about the Post Halloween Storm. Yes, Moms and Dads, I looked at the Demons away schedule.

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More Flood Warnings

On October 23, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26 Friday 4 pm

Thunderstorms are moving into parts of the forecast area. They will become more widespread this evening.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
357 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026  
  
COC007-053-067-242145-  
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.W.0021.261023T2157Z-261024T2145Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/  
ARCHULETA CO-HINSDALE CO-LA PLATA CO-  
357 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026  
   
..FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MDT SATURDAY  
  
* WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES.  
  
* WHERE...NORTHWESTERN ARCHULETA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  SOUTHWESTERN HINSDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  LA PLATA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 345 PM MDT SATURDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...FLOODING OF RIVERS, CREEKS, STREAMS, AND OTHER LOW-LYING  
  AND FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS CONTINUES. SEVERAL STRUCTURES ARE  
  FLOODED, AND NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO WIDESPREAD  
  FLOODING IMPACTS.  
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...  
  - AT 350 PM MDT, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF  
    DAMAGE AND FLOODING IMPACTS. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN FAST AND HIGH  
    AND WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO  
    1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA FROM THUNDERSTORMS  
    DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, OVERNIGHT AND REDEVELOPING TOMORROW.  
    PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING  
    AND FLASH FLOODING .  
  - THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...  
    ANIMAS RIVER, LA PLATA, LOS PINOS, AND VALLECITO CREEK.  
  - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
    DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, LA PLATA, FALFA, OXFORD, BONDAD,  
    HESPERUS, BREEN, VALLECITO, MAYDAY, KLINE, MARVEL, TIFFANY,  
    ALLISON AND REDMESA.

I remain on standby…

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Friday Afternoon: Rain Returns By Saturday (Or Earlier)

On October 23, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26 Friday Noon

I am not sure whether the River Forecast Center will update its forecast; the last update was at 10 a.m., and it hasn’t changed since earlier this morning. I would not be surprised if the new forecast comes out as soon as I finish this update and hit send.

Before I get started I need to fix something. I made a poorly thought-out remark about CDOT “dropping the ball in the big game”.

I want to clarify that I meant the bureaucracy in Denver and the statewide camera outage. I was not referring to the hard-working drivers, mechanics, dispatchers, and office staff at the various offices in SW Colorado. You all work in one of the most challenging regions in the United States, and we all are grateful for your work and dedication.

Today is tricky; most models show a lull this afternoon, with showers firing back up tonight, getting heavier toward Saturday morning, continuing through Saturday night and Sunday, then moving out by late Sunday night. This morning around 11 a.m., a storm fired up right over our neighborhood. It dropped a very quick 0.30″ and a lot of graupel. These peaks of the sun we are getting could trigger thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. That’s an if-then, not part of the forecast.

Models peg snow levels at 9,500 feet. Actual snow levels should vary between 9,000-10,000 feet based on time of day and intensity of snowfall. Either way, below pass level.

It looks like my nudge regarding a weekend flood watch worked.

1159 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Colorado, including the following
  areas, Animas River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, San
  Juan River Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains and Utah,
  including the following areas, Arches/Grand Flat,
  Canyonlands/Natural Bridges, La Sal and Abajo Mountains and
  Southeast Utah.

* WHEN...Through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, recent burn scars and other low-lying and
  flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm
  drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Flooding is imminent or ongoing with additional rounds of showers
    and thunderstorms expected through Saturday afternoon. Rivers and
    creeks may still experience high waters even after rainfall has
    ended.

Update 1:50 pm: This just came out

148 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026  
   
..FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON  
  
* WHAT...SMALL STREAM FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
  CONTINUES.  
  
* WHERE...SOUTHEASTERN LA PLATA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 400 PM MDT.  
  
* IMPACTS...FLOODING OF RIVERS, CREEKS, STREAMS, AND OTHER LOW-LYING  
  AND FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS IS ONGOING. NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN CLOSED  
  DUE TO FLOODING IMPACTS WITH ROAD AND CULVERT WASHOUTS.  
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...  
  - AT 148 PM MDT, FLOODING IMPACTS ARE ONGOING. MINOR RAINFALL  
    AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  
  - THIS INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING STREAMS  
    ANDDRAINAGES...  
    FLORIDA RIVER (my insertion not Florida along 240) SPRING CREEK, UTE CREEK, SALT CREEK AND DRY CREEK.  
  - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
    BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, OXFORD, TIFFANY AND ALLISON.

Back to the models: there isn’t strong consensus on precipitation amounts.

On one hand, we have the European and Canadian models. On the other, we have the GFS AI and German ICON model.

European

Canadian

German

GFS AI

The glaring similarity is that they all show Wolf Creek getting 2 to 4 more inches of liquid precipitation. In reality, it will be a mixed bag of very wet snow and, at times, higher-ratio snow. If it were December with this liquid-equivalent forecast, I would be forecasting 24 to 30 inches of snow up there.

So I need to let another model cycle run. For now, though, I think the European model will be most accurate.

I will be back if I need to be; otherwise, it will be in the morning.

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ANIMAS READ NOW

On October 23, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10:00 am Friday

Animas in town ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND CLIMBING. Forecast Peak now at 3 pm!

Animas below pump station.RUNNING ABOVE THEORETICAL FLOOD STAGE FORECAST PEAK AT 1 pm

I am monitoring abd will be posting as warranted

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Friday Update: Weekend Weather

On October 23, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26 Friday 6:30 am

I looked at some of the Pagosa totals; several locations got 4 to 6 inches of rain yesterday. The highest total I found was on the NE corner of town: 8.35 inches yesterday.

The only model that initialized well this morning was the Canadian model, go figure.

Because of this, I have very low confidence in today’s forecast. Surface maps show the trough and associated cold front to our west. Satellite tells a different story. It shows the trough has already moved past us, with slightly drier air invading our area.

This reprieve sounds good, but if it leads to clear skies, thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon. Most models don’t show the next system affecting us until this evening. Looking at multiple models, precipitation forecasts show another 1 to 3 inches of rain by Monday morning. As I said. I have low confidence in the overnight model runs.

Because we are in a lull, I am going to hold off on weekend weather details until the new model runs come out. One thing I will be watching is snow levels, which will be dropping; early indications show 9,000 to 10,000 feet.

I will continue to monitor the river forecast today and this weekend. If anything changes between now and my noon update, I’ll post.

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Friday Morning Update

On October 23, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26 Friday 4 am

Yesterday, in one of my posts, I wrote about the historic flood of 2011. I was off by 100 years. Muscle memory is the culprit. I have been typing 2000s for 26 years, so in my mind I meant 1911, but it came out as 2011. I only heard from a couple of people, so I appreciate them bringing it to my attention as much as I appreciate the thousands of people who overlooked it and knew what I meant.

I am tired and a little cranky. I will do my best to stay on track this morning. But come on CDOT. Nothing like dropping the ball during the big game.

“Sorry, our cameras are out so…”

Besides that, the closures tell the story.

From the CBRFC Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. These are all the sites I need to follow up on, especially the red and yellow dots, but not exclusively.

For the last couple of days, I have been hearing from followers in and near Dolores. Like most long-term residents near rivers, streams, and creeks, they have local knowledge and experience dealing with flood threats.

I am not a hydro=guy, not at all. I hear from a few; one, who asked me not to reveal his name, said I was worried too much about flooding. He tried to tell me that saturated soils absorb precipitation better and that I shouldn’t worry about it. OK.

The last couple of months have exposed me to more heavy-rain threats than I have dealt with in the last 18 years. Now look: DOL (Dolores River at Dolores) and DRR (Dolores River at Rico) made the list today. Guess when the peak forecast time is: Now. Of course, why would anyone want any warning?

That’s the equivalent of the NWS in their forecast discussions saying, “Webcams show snow stakes in the San Juans with 15 inches of snow, so we are raising the forecast to 12-14 inches.” Don’t laugh, I have read that kind of stuff before. We call it “nowcasting”: “It’s raining outside, so we’re increasing our chances of rain to 80% today.”

(Stick with me; long-term followers know when I am tired because I stray off topic quickly, I call it going down the rabbit hole, it usually happens when Sus has a bad day or night)

Caffeine kicking in, RANT OVER (mostly).

NWS just issued a flood warning through 8 am…DUH

Animas Downtown: Currently running above Action Stage. Peak forecast: Noon today

Animas Below Pump Station: Currently running above June 2019 high. Peak forecast: Noon today.

San Juan River at Pagosa: Peak Forecast: Now. Pagosa and Wolf Creek are currently inaccessible because roads are closed.

Piedra at Arboles: Currently running above historical highs. Peak forecast: Now

La Plata River at Hesperus: Above flood stage. Peak forecast: Now

Mancos River at Mancos: Above Action Stage. Peak forecast: Now (another one that made the list while we were sleeping).

Animas River at Cedar Hill: Above flood stage. Peak forecast: 4 pm today. This has been on the list all along.

Animas River at Silverton: Peak forecast now. The forecast peak height is lower than current observations, which are hitting historical levels. This is another location where locals know more than the experts.

Vallecito Creek: Peak Forecast: Now

Los Pinos above Vallecito: Peak forecast 4 hours ago

Thanks for your patience. I am going to regroup. I’ll do a short model update in a moment. Then a more in-depth model update around 1 pm. At the moment, the latest model runs show this next round will be less impactful, but 1 to 3 more inches are possible

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Thursday Early Evening

On October 22, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/22/2026 Thursday 5:30 pm

River Forecast Center just time-stamped their earlier update. That means they released the same data as the previous post and labeled it the most recent. This makes me think we may not get an update until morning. This also makes me think old precip data is still being fed in.

If you’re new, I tend to overprotect SW Colorado to the extent that it sounds like I am digging at NWS. That’s not the case, but if I strongly disagree, I will let everyone know, as I have.

The flood warning text made me believe they are going to focus on us rather than their less-affected coverage areas. We’ll see.

Here is an example of poor initialization. Show of hands: does anyone remember when I said the models for the last couple of months have underforecasted precipitation amounts?

Here’s last night’s through 6 pm tonight precip forecast:

Here is live reporting straight from the DWG Command Center:

7:06 pm

Here is the same model for precipitation from 6 pm tonight through Sunday night:

Surface maps once again differ by 100s of miles. I am checking out for a few hours.

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Thursday Late Afternoon Flood Update

On October 22, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/22/26 Thursday 3:30 pm

I should not do this but I am questioning the peak times, they have not changed, that tells me they might be chasing data, I will leave it at that.

Animas Durango: Above Action Stage, at Flood Stage 8ft (within 3/4 of an inch) with 9825 cfs, which well exceeds 2019 and would be ranked 7th in history

Animas at Durango Below Pump Plant: Forecast is higher than ever recorded since records were kept (18 years). If you missed my other updates big concerns for the lowest lying residents in River Oaks and folks living off of east of La Posta road. Weaselskin, Jack Rabbit etc.

San Juan at Pagosa Springs: YIKES

Vallecito Creek: We are creeping up on last year.

Los Pinos Above Vallecito: This exceeds both days in October last year on the provisional site.

Animas at Cedar Hill: Exceeding flood stage

La Plata River at State Line:

La Plata River at Hesperus:

I would not be surprised at all if these NOAA River Forecast folks have a very long night. I will do my best to keep up. Have not covered an historic event in a while!