11/14/26 Saturday 5:30 am
I am running behind. I spent the last 90 minutes looking at webcams and weather stations. If you are new, I often do this, but not for this long. The fact that it was snowing in Pagosa compelled me to do a bit of a deep dive. I call that the “LOTDW” model (Look Out The Damn Window).
Models aren’t particularly enthusiastic about additional totals at low and mid elevations. At 6 am I am sitting with 0.51″ of rain. It looks like another 0.20″ for the lowest elevations to the south, with up to 0.50″ of rain for elevations below 7,800′.
An additional 4 to 6″ of snow for Purgatory, 6 to 9 more for Wolf Creek. Of course all of this based on the models idea of where the front is. WPC latte crew in Maryland thinks it’s in Nevada. Not so sure about that. If I am wrong those totals will be higher.
This definitely feels like an early ender with a “was that it” frontal passage. If you are new, the “was that it” ending happens when there is a monster lee side trough draped over the Front Range that gobbles up our storm. The frontal passage in that case happens quickly and violently for a short period. In the winter it often has snow squalls for 15 minutes or so and driving winds. Just as it gets exciting, it passes, and the sun comes out.
Depending on the storm, I usually post 2 or 3 times a day before the storm arrives. After it arrives, resources are more limited (surface map inaccuracy, radar, and lagging models) so I usually just sit back and let it do what it’s going to do.
With two more storms on the way over the next week, I will be busy. In my afternoon update I will dive into those next storms. Should be out by 2 pm.