2/13/25 Thursday 3:30 am
Sleep is for wimps, especially when we are facing the most significant storm of the season so far!
What a great day!
I could not help but notice that there were some concerns by the second shift of our local Grand Junction weather office when they took over yesterday afternoon and inherited the Winter Storm Watch for Durango and the lower elevations. This is from the afternoon area forecast discussion. It’s like “The Real Meteorologists of Grand Junction”. Check this out:
What remains one of the more challenging aspects of this
forecast though are the snow levels thanks to the warm air
advection accompanying this surge of AR moisture. Current NBM
guidance suggests a steady rise in the mean forecasted snow
levels from ~5,500 feet late Thursday to as high as 7,500 during
mid-day Friday. To complicate things further, amidst this
change is a rather large spread between the 25th and 75th
percentile snow levels, which is decreasing our confidence at
the moment. This makes it especially challenging to comment on
the expected accumulations in valleys where the NBM ranges from
a couple inches to about a foot. It is here where we cannot rule
out a rain-snow mix or rain as the dominant precipitation type.
As this system approaches, updating model guidance should shed
some light on expectations, but regardless of how things trend
over the next couple days, notable impacts are likely,
especially for those anticipating to travel during this period.
Just how far down the slopes will we see these impacts is the
big question mark. That said, felt there was enough chance for
impactful snow across lower elevations above 6500 feet in
southwest Colorado to warrant a Watch. Latest forecast may be
too aggressive with snow accumulations, but better than a good
chance for at least advisory level snow.
I am still about 12 hours from my forecast, but the data supports low-elevation snow.
So, the 3rd shift at NWS doubled down. Avalanche watches follow the Winter Storm Warnings.
252 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025
COZ022-023-132300-
/O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0002.250214T0100Z-250215T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0003.250214T0100Z-250214T1900Z/
Animas River Basin-San Juan River Basin-
Including the cities of Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, and Pagosa
Springs
252 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST
FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and
12 inches.
* WHERE...Animas River Basin and San Juan River Basin.
* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon MST Friday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening
commutes.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, warm clothes,
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
252 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025
COZ021-132300-
/O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0002.250214T0100Z-250215T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0003.250214T0100Z-250214T1900Z/
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-
Including the cities of Cortez, Dove Creek, and Mancos
252 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST
FRIDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected above 6500 feet. Total snow
accumulations between 4 and 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35
mph.
* WHERE...Four Corners/Upper Dolores River.
* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon MST Friday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, warm clothes,
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
252 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025
COZ019-132300-
/O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0002.250214T0100Z-250215T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0003.250214T0100Z-250216T0100Z/
Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Silverton, Rico, and Mayday
252 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 1 and
2 feet with locally higher amounts up to 3 feet possible. Winds
could gust as high as 45 mph.
* WHERE...Southwest San Juan Mountains.
* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MST Saturday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread
blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.
Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
252 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025
COZ017-018-132300-
/O.UPG.KGJT.WS.A.0002.250214T0100Z-250216T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.W.0003.250214T0100Z-250216T0100Z/
Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide-Northwest San Juan
Mountains-
Including the cities of Ridgway, Glade Park, Telluride, Ouray, and
Lake City
252 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST
SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 10
and 20 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds could
gust as high as 45 mph.
* WHERE...Northwest San Juan Mountains and Uncompahgre Plateau and
Dallas Divide.
* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MST Saturday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening
commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
300 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025
COZ060-067-068-131800-
/O.UPG.KPUB.WS.A.0003.250214T0300Z-250216T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.WS.W.0003.250214T0300Z-250216T0000Z/
Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet-Eastern San
Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Including Wolf Creek Pass, andCumbres Pass
300 AM MST Thu Feb 13 2025
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow possible. Total snow
accumulations between 15 and 30 inches. Greatest amounts will be
on south and southwest facing slopes of the Eastern San Juan
mountains. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.
* WHERE...Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet, Eastern San
Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet, and Upper Rio Grande
Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet.
* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Saturday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible over area
mountain passes, especially over Wolf Creek Pass. Strong winds
could lead to blowing snow and hazardous travel conditions.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
AVALANCHE WATCH
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
322 PM MST WED FEB 12 2025
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER.
AVALANCHE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM Thursday UNTIL 5 PM Saturday
*WHAT Dangerous avalanche conditions are developing. Expect the
Avalanche Danger to rise to HIGH (Level 4 of 5) by Thursday night.
*WHERE Park Range, Flat Top Mountains, Elk Mountains, Ruby Range,
West Elk Mountains, San Juan Mountains, La Plata Mountains, Needle
Mountains, Grenadier Range
*WHEN Expect dangerous avalanche conditions to begin on Thursday
night by about 11:00 PM and last through Saturday at 5:00 PM.
*IMPACTS Heavy snow and strong winds will create dangerous
avalanche conditions by Thursday night. Large and dangerous
avalanches will be easy to trigger once the new snow accumulates.
Large avalanches will run naturally.
*PRECAUTION/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS Travel in backcountry avalanche
terrain is not recommended from Thursday night through Saturday.
Avoid travel on and under slopes with a slope angle steeper than
about 30 degrees.
It’s going to be a busy day; I will be back soon!
OR
Cash App users: $JGDWG
Venmo: @Jeff-Givens-11
