1/20/23 Friday 8 am

There were some model output delays this morning, but the providers seem to be catching up, finally. I am noticing some discrepancies between the high-resolution models and the medium-resolution models. This is perfectly normal, however, this time the higher-resolution models are showing slightly more snow than the lower-resolution models. That is unusual.  Either way, this seems like a pretty insignificant event after what we have been through this week.

I am going to go slightly higher with my forecast than I thought I would have earlier today. Temperatures are going to be on the colder side and will generate decent ratios between 12 and 15 to 1. Nice, easy to deal with powder.

2 to 4 inches in the lower elevations:  Cortez, Mancos, Dolores, Durango, Bayfield

3 to 5 inches in the mid-elevations, with slightly higher amounts possible above 7,800 feet.

3-7 inches for the higher elevations.

The models show the snow developing in most areas over the next couple of hours.

If someone in Cortez or Mancos could shoot me an email when it starts snowing there that would be awesome!

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1/19/23 Thursday 10:45 am

In January so far, the west half of the forecast area has been favored for higher totals. Also, mid-elevations have been favored over most higher elevations.

Here are the first and second storm totals as well as the combined total.

Cortez 1-12 = 13

Mancos (3 mi south) 15-10 = 25

Mancos (4 mi north) 12.5-20 = 32.5

Dolores (Rustic Ridge) 18-24 = 42

Silver Creek Ranch (NE of Mancos and NW of Mayday)  22-34 = 56

Hesperus at HWY 140 and HWY 160  24-32 = 56

Durango West 2  22-27 = 49

Durango in town (west of fairgrounds) 16.5-13 = 29.5

Glacier Club 17.5-21 = 38.5

Rockwood 14-19.5 = 33.5

Hermosa Cliffs Ranch 16.6-26.3 = 42.9

Lake Purgatory 25-15 = 38

Silverton 5-15.5 =20.5

Ouray 8-11 = 19

Three Springs 11-14 = 25

HWY 172 near DRO 12.25-8.75 = 21

Gem Village 12-17 = 29

Arboles 6 – 8 = 14

Lower Forest Lakes 14-17 = 31

Enchanted Forest 14-20 = 34

Upper Durango Hills 16-23.5 = 39.5

Lemon 16-20 = 36

Vallecito 12-19 = 31

Deer Valley Estates 24.5-17 = 41.5

My next update will be Friday morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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1/19/23 Thursday 8:15 am

This morning I somehow, for the first time in a very, very long time, overslept. Yesterday, I had a busy afternoon, everything took longer than I expected, and there were a lot of people downtown attempting to do the same things I was doing.

I woke up at about 7:30 am, which is very unusual for me. I went to my computer, and the first thing I noticed is that I never hit publish on my 10 am-ish update. That is, until that moment. I hit the wrong button and just sent it out. So it’s old info you probably don’t care about. I guess it’s going to be one of “those” days, great…

I am no closer to tabulating the storm totals than I was 24 hours ago. I still need to mitigate my roof sometime today. It will probably be later today because it’s been hovering around zero outside. Cold is the narrative around the forecast area. The coldest temps I could find were Silverton at -20 and North Vallecito at -10!

Tomorrow’s storm looks extremely unimpressive and should start around noon.

I am going to try to put myself back together and attempt to start operating on all cylinders. I will post again later today. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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1/18/23 Wednesday 10:

In case you missed my last post I will not be able to finalize all of the totals today, my goal is sometime tomorrow. I have had some questions about how this season compares to the famous 2018-2019 winter. I will be talking more about that, I had a theory going into the season that I wished I would have talked about earlier but I wanted to see how it played out. Anyway, in my neighborhood, we are already at 50% of the 2018-2019 season total. We already have a substantially higher total so far than what we had on January 18th, 2019.

The latest surface map shows the shortwave has moved east but it has not crossed Wolf Creek Pass. Speaking of Wolf Creek Pass, it just opened at 10:05 am. I have no information on the other passes yet. The Wolf Creek closure was not displayed on the CDOT website this morning. This was beyond the control of our local office.

I will continue to distribute information as I get it. I have a couple of things going on today outside of DWG HQ,  but I don’t expect a lot to happen today except Wolf Creek and up north. The snow will continue to pile in northern portions of the forecast area– it is still dumping in Telluride, and moderate to light snow will continue at Wolf Creek.

I will take a look at Friday’s storm this afternoon, at this point, it looks like a very quick mover with very little moisture. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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1/18/23 Wednesday 8 am

While the northern portions of the forecast area will continue to get several inches of snow today, I don’t see anything in the models that would lead me to believe that snow will redevelop south of Purgatory. Wolf Creek is a whole different topic, it will continue to snow through the morning hours at least.

That being said humidity is still pretty high and with the right amount of sunshine we could see the atmosphere destabilize and trigger a few snow showers.

Surface maps always lag a few hours, and there can be errors on them, it will probably be 9:30 or 10 am before the 8 am surface map is available. What I will be looking at then is the location of the shortwave trough that was still to our west as of 5 am.

Until that updates, it’s time to start moving snow, again.

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1/18/23 Wednesday 6:30 am

Hold off on your snow reports for now, I don’t yet have a handle on how much longer this is going to go on, but it is still snowing in most areas. It looks like it is really dumping at Telluride, finally! The morning high-resolution models may or may not give me good guidance.

I have a full plate today. I already know that between cleaning up from the overnight/morning leftovers, my appointments, and errands this afternoon, that I am not going to be done compiling storm totals today, hopefully, tomorrow I will get them out.

You will probably be safe reporting this afternoon (with the exception of the northern portions of the forecast area). If possible please include location, first storm total, second storm total, grand total. 

I will post again after I see the updated morning model runs, which should be out at or around 8 am. If I get a travel update before then I will post it immediately.

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1/17/23  Tuesday 7:30 pm

As I said earlier, I am not a fan of trying to forecast leftovers, I leave that up to the experts, as models are notoriously horrible at handling them.  I would not be surprised if snow picks up before midnight and is on and off through the night.

Equally, I would not be surprised if nothing develops.  In any event, it looks like all passes will be closed.

Here is a summary of the major road conditions:

Closure Alert for Wednesday

1/17/23 Tuesday 3:30 pm

In my 11 am update, I mentioned that the leftovers could impact us. That certainly looks like it will be the case. Sorry, it has been a rough few days for those of us trying to remove the snow.

At my house, I am definitely going to exceed the total from storm#1, I may have already. We had an intense band of snow move through around 1:30 or so. It was snowing harder than at any given time during both storms. So keep tallying your totals and I will let you know when I think it is done, which will likely be sometime tomorrow.

Leftovers are very difficult to forecast, so I try to avoid it. However, The NWS has extended all of the Winter Storm Warnings and added additional amounts. These were just issued a little before 3 pm. And it should give you a rough idea what to expect. The good news is that with the colder air, the snow should be easier to shovel.

Here are the latest Warnings (2:54 pm)

COZ022-023-180600-  
/O.EXT.KGJT.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230118T0600Z/  
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO,   
AND PAGOSA SPRINGS  
254 PM MST TUE JAN 17 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS  
EVENING...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4  
  INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  
  
* WHERE...ANIMAS RIVER BASIN AND SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN.  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING.  
  
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. THE HAZARDOUS   
  CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE.

COZ019-180600-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230118T1800Z/  
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS  
254 PM MST TUE JAN 17 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST  
WEDNESDAY...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10  
  INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35  
  MPH.  
  
* WHERE...SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. PATCHY BLOWING   
  SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE COLD WIND   
  CHILLS AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ZERO COULD CAUSE FROSTBITE ON   
  EXPOSED SKIN IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES.

  
COZ003-013-018-UTZ025-180600-  
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-230118T1800Z/  
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-FLAT TOPS-NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-  
TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF RIO BLANCO, BUFORD, TRAPPERS LAKE,   
TELLURIDE, OURAY, AND LAKE CITY  
254 PM MST TUE JAN 17 2023  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST  
WEDNESDAY...  
  
* WHAT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH  
  LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...IN COLORADO, ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS, FLAT TOPS AND   
  NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. IN UTAH, TAVAPUTS PLATEAU.  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. PATCHY BLOWING   
  SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ON   
  RIDGE TOPS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES.

COZ021-180600-  
/O.EXT.KGJT.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230118T0600Z/  
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CORTEZ, DOVE CREEK, AND MANCOS  
254 PM MST TUE JAN 17 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS  
EVENING ABOVE 6000 FEET...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. ADDITIONAL SNOW   
  ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.  
  
* WHERE...FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER.  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING.  
  
* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. PATCHY BLOWING   
  SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN   
  AREAS. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE EVENING   
  COMMUTE. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
300 PM MST TUE JAN 17 2023  
  
COZ068-180600-  
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230118T0900Z/  
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-  
300 PM MST TUE JAN 17 2023  
  
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MST  
WEDNESDAY...  
  
* WHAT...HEAVY SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 20   
  INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.  
  
* WHERE...EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 2 AM MST WEDNESDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. AREAS   
  OF BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE   
  HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING   
  COMMUTE.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT, FOOD, AND WATER IN  
YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.   

HMMM…. 5 to 20, nice narrow range!

Unless I get an urgent road closure notice I am done until tomorrow morning. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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1/17/23 Tuesday 1:20 pm

Although the surface front is moving across the area, it does not necessarily mean we are done with snow. Those shortwaves I pointed out earlier are still west of us, and could visit us later today/this evening/overnight as leftovers…I will dive into that later. Time to go back outside and continue to dig out–stupid roof…

All three 550 Passes are now CLOSED! So we have a hat trick. No scheduled time for reopening, but I would not hold my breath!

My next update will be later today. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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1/17/23 Tuesday 12:30 pm

Based on the increased winds, cooler temperatures, and enhanced snowfall rates it appears the front is approaching and/or crossing western portions of the forecast area.

― Southwest Colorado Winter Travel Alert ―

CDOT implements safety closure for US 550 Coal Bank & Molas passes

Closure planned for tomorrow morning for US 160 Wolf Creek Pass

US 550 north of Durango 
US 550 Coal Bank and Molas passes between Purgatory and Silverton have been closed to ensure safety for motorists. The safety closure was implemented at 11 a.m. today due to adverse weather and high avalanche danger. It is not known when the corridor will reopen. Northbound travelers will encounter a closed gate just north of Purgatory, near Cascade Creek (MP 52). Southbound travelers will encounter a closed gate at Silverton (MP 70). Do not attempt to bypass the closed gates.

US 160 Wolf Creek Pass east of Pagosa Springs 
US 160 Wolf Creek Pass will close tomorrow morning at 6 a.m. so that crews can perform winter maintenance operations. Westbound traffic will be stopped just west of the ski area at the pass summit(MP 167) and eastbound traffic will be stopped near Treasure Falls (MP 157). Do not attempt to bypass the closed gates. Maintenance operations will last for much of the morning, the exact time of reopening the highway is not known.

With the prolonged storm system expected to remain in the area, travelers should be aware that additional maintenance work and safety closures may be implemented on many southwest Colorado highways over the next few days. Visit cotrip.org for the latest information on road closures and conditions.

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