Wednesday Update-Part 2 Tease

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

12/17/25 Wednesday 3:30 am

On Monday, I mentioned a weak storm moving into Northern Colorado midweek.

Here is the latest European model showing the conditions between 5 and 11 pm today.

Just a slight chance of a couple of flurries in the NW San Juans if they are lucky.

I am not finished with Part 2 of the MJO; however, here is a preview of what I will explain.

This is what the MJO model (Phase Diagram) looks like.

I am pointing out our last storm, before we entered the weather death zone. Notice how the red line just emerged from the circle of death long enough for this little storm to clip the north? Then, of course, it returns to the circle tomorrow and Friday.

As I said, just a tease of what I will be explaining in MJO Part 2…

 

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Monday Update: MJO Part 1

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

12/15/25 Monday 7 am

I was able to knock-out the first post more quickly than I anticipated. I will be working on Part 2 tomorrow.

🌀 What is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)?

The MJO is the largest and most important pattern of weather variability in the tropical atmosphere on a weekly to monthly timescale (what meteorologists call “intraseasonal” variability). And yes, it was discovered by a guy named Madden and a guy named Julian in the early 70s.

Imagine a giant, slow-moving “wave” of clouds, rainfall, and wind that circles the entire globe along the equator.

  • Period: This wave typically takes between 30 to 60 days to complete one full trip around the world.
  • Direction: It moves from west to east in the Tropics, starting over the Indian Ocean.

The MJO has significant impacts on temperature and precipitation across all seven continents. Its signal, which is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere winter, offers untapped predictability for long-range global weather pattern forecasting.

The 200mb (below) is approximately 40,000 feet: The 850mb is approximately 5000 feet.

(NOAA)

🌧️ The Two Key States

The MJO is often described as having two main components that travel together:

  1. Enhanced Convection (Wet): This is a massive, eastward-moving area where air is rising, leading to intense thunderstorms, heavy cloud cover, and anomalously high rainfall in the tropics. This phase is often favorable for tropical cyclone development.
  2. Suppressed Convection (Dry): Trailing behind the wet phase is an area where air is sinking. This leads to clear skies, dry conditions, and anomalously low rainfall in the tropics .

The wet phase and the dry phase form an opposing pair that slowly moves across the entire world, causing shifts in global weather.

🌍 Global Impact and Significance

The MJO’s influence extends far beyond the tropics. It is a critical component for extended-range forecasting (several weeks in advance).

  • Tropical Cyclones: The enhanced convection phase can provide favorable conditions for the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones (hurricanes/typhoons) in ocean basins like the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific.
  • Monsoons: It strongly controls the timing and intensity of monsoon systems around the world. The wet phase can bring the onset of a monsoon, while the dry phase can cause breaks in the rainfall.
  • Mid-Latitude Weather: Through teleconnections—atmospheric ripples that connect the tropics to the rest of the globe—the MJO can influence weather patterns in North America, Europe, and elsewhere:
    • It can affect the position and strength of the jet streams.
    • It is linked to extreme precipitation events, like the “Atmospheric Rivers” on the U.S. West Coast.
    • ENSO Connection: The MJO interacts with and can help determine the timing and intensity of an El Niño or La Niña event (collectively known as ENSO), though it does not cause them directly.

Because it consistently cycles through different areas of the globe (there are 8 defined phases, or locations, of the MJO), monitoring its position is key for sub-seasonal  (14 to 60 day) weather prediction.

🌧️ Global Weathermakers: Monsoons, Floods, and Droughts

The MJO not only determines temperatures but also governs global rainfall patterns. Its powerful wave of wet and dry air determines when and where extreme rainfall events occur.

  • Classic Monsoon: The MJO strongly controls the timing and intensity of the big monsoon systems around the world, like those in India, Australia, and South America.

    • Think of the Wet Phase (Enhanced Convection) as the starting pistol, often kicking off the entire monsoon season.

    • When the Dry Phase (Suppressed Convection) rolls through, it causes “breaks” in the rainfall, which is where those concerning dry spells and potential drought conditions come from.

  • Feast or Famine: This system is all about extremes.

    • On one hand, a slow-moving Wet Phase can bring prolonged, heavy rainfall, drastically increasing the risk of major flooding in places like Southeast Asia or even right here in the U.S. Western States.

    • On the other hand, the Dry Phase creates huge areas of sinking air, which warms everything up and shuts down cloud formation, leaving those areas exposed to drought-like conditions.

  • Distant Connections: The MJO’s tropical changes even have a surprising reach, linking the convection over the Indian Ocean to rainfall changes in West Africa a couple of weeks later.

🌊 MJO’s Influence on the Pacific Ocean

The Pacific Ocean is where the MJO truly becomes critical, acting like a global thermostat and a hurricane starter kit for both the U.S. and the Western Pacific Basin.

1. Hurricane and Typhoon Fuel

The MJO is often the deciding factor in whether a tropical storm forms and strengthens:

  • The Power-Up Phase: When the MJO’s Wet Phase (the area of intense storms) is hovering over the Western Pacific, it creates the perfect large-scale environment for tropical cyclones (typhoons) to pop up and gain strength.

  • East Coast Connection: The same influence applies in the Eastern Pacific, affecting the formation and intensity of hurricanes off the coast of Mexico and Central America.

2. The “Atmospheric River” (formerly known as The Pineapple Express) on the U.S. West Coast

During the winter months (November–April), the MJO can act like a giant water hose pointed at the United States:

  • Jet Stream Steering: Through atmospheric ripples known as teleconnections, the MJO shifts the Pacific jet stream.

  • The Moisture Bridge: When its convection is over the central or western Pacific, the MJO helps build a “bridge” of tropical moisture. This often forms an Atmospheric River, once famously dubbed the “Pineapple Express,” which slams the U.S. West Coast and brings extreme rain and flooding to California and the Pacific Northwest, and if we are lucky, a nice winter storm or two to our area.

3. The Relationship with ENSO (El Niño/La Niña)

The MJO is a separate phenomenon, but it’s constantly chatting with the much slower El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO):

  • The Final Push: A strong MJO can  provide (but not always)  the crucial “nudge” that either speeds up the development of a full-blown El Niño or triggers the switch into a La Niña event.

  • Altered Path: During an El Niño, the MJO’s storms tend to travel much farther east across the central Pacific than usual. During La Niña, the storms are often held back closer to the western Pacific.

Tracking the MJO is essential because it gives us the best glimpse into the weather trends for that important 2- to 4-week window.

Now that you know more about the MJO and its impacts, we will next discuss how to track the MJO and its eight phases.

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Monday Update

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

12/15/25 Monday 3:30 am

Current Weather Outlook

A couple of systems will jump the ridge and head into the Northern Mountains (think Steamboat). A few may drop south enough to deposit a couple of inches in the Central Mountains. If the NW San Juans are very lucky, they might get a few low-impact flakes.

❄️ 📚 Weather Education Update

There is a very good reason these storms are showing up when they do, and it correlates with Tropical Activity near Africa, thousands of miles away!

For my first topic, I’ve chosen one of the most important yet often overlooked weather phenomena. It has distinct seasonal variability, being strongest for most from December to February; however, I have found it correlates well with our area from December through May.

I was recently reminded of this topic by an email from a follower, and it’s highly relevant right now. Long-time followers may remember me talking about it: The MJO, or the Madden-Julian Oscillation.

I’ll be breaking this down into a few separate posts. It’s a lot to process—too much to drop on everyone in one lengthy post and still keep your attention. Look for the first part to be published on Tuesday or Wednesday.

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Saturday Update

On By durangoweatherguy1 Comment

12/13/25 Saturday 5 am

It has been a very challenging and demanding week for me. I just caught up on my emails and have picked a couple of topics to discuss over the next few days.

There are no changes to thinking that it will be at least around Christmas before we get a break.

Here is the model initialization for 5 am.

Notice the thick black line from the South Dakota/Nebraska border, cutting through Wyoming into Western Montana.

It is not as it appears. It is not a single thick line but multiple thin lines of pressure stacked on top of each other. This demonstrates the strength of the high-pressure dome/ridge we are trapped under. It also shows the rails for the storm train/track (just northeast of the ridge).

You know I rely heavily on the European model, but it is at its worst (performance) in our region, given the current atmospheric conditions. The GFS handles it a bit better.

The GFS is still showing a Christmas Storm, which would be a sloppy mess in the lower elevations and good snow for the Ski areas. The European takes a couple days later and brings a much smaller storm.

Both models tend to get more accurate once they are under ten days out, so this week we should start seeing a better, more accurate forecast.

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Wednesday Update

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

12/10/25 Wednesday 3:30 am

❄️ I Am Back, But The Weather Is Not (The Pre-Christmas Blues)

It was a good visit with Susan’s friend from Florida. It was eye-opening for her, and for me, it was a learning experience. I witnessed her patience and her ability to cut through during some of the minor episodes and communicate with her. There is not a lot you can do during more challenging episodes. I will hold off on anything further until after her appointment two weeks from today.

😴 Seriously Boring Pattern Takes Hold

As for the weather, we are fully engulfed in a seriously boring pattern—more common than not this time of year. The pre-Christmas blues as we know them. The sky is not falling (neither is the precipitation).

Early winter conditions persist with the big trough in the eastern half of the US. Snowball fights in New Orleans the other day, 25 below zero in North Dakota, and a stubborn storm train that surfs the ridge over the West and drops the systems into the Midwest and East.

I am left with very little to discuss. My plan is to blend some weather education and talk about the Christmas Storm over the coming days.

My focus for the coming posts will be on specific topics based on your feedback, as well as a few of my personal favorites.

As we get closer to the Christmas Storm, I will dig deeper into it. So please, let me know what topics you are wondering about. I don’t do hypotheticals, but that leaves plenty of other interesting subjects!

Did I mention I am expecting a storm on or near Christmas?

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Saturday Morning-550 Maintenance (delays)

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

12/6/25 Saturday 3 am

⚠️ Red Mountain Pass Closure & Model Verification: GFS Wins (For Now)

After nearly 2 feet of snow from Ouray to Red Mountain, there are scheduled maintenance operations today.

“Southwest Colorado — US Highway 550 Red Mountain Pass between Silverton and Ouray will be closed to travel on Saturday, Dec. 6, while the Colorado Department of Transportation performs safety-critical winter maintenance operations. Saturday morning’s operations are anticipated to have minor traffic impacts with delays beginning at 8 a.m. between Mile Points 80 and 81.” “Minor impacts,” of course, are relative to people’s patience levels.

FYI they are planning additional operations on Tuesday.

Interestingly enough, the US GFS model is the only one to verify at this hour. Verification occurs when a model forecasts a specific condition at a particular hour, and that condition actually occurs. In this case, the GFS showed snow starting in the northern forecast area from Purgatory to the north. The GFS is correct; it is snowing at Purgatory and Telluride, and it is not yet snowing at Wolf Creek.

Speaking of snowing at Purgatory, I can’t confirm the recent rumors that their new webcam shows AI generated snowfall. I did not make this up, I got a few emails about it. I am of course kidding about the “can’t confirm” however, I was a little disappointed with the new cam (kind of like our “radar”), it sure looks like their old snowstake with a ring doorbell and an Amazon Basics led flashlight…

NWS Advisory & Forecast Outlook

Back to the storm, NWS has used the feedback from last week’s storm to issue a Winter Weather Advisory. They know they underforecast the systems and are concerned that another sneaky storm will overperform what the models are showing — which in many models is nothing.

Northwest San Juan Mountains- Including the cities of Telluride, Lizard Head Pass, Ouray, Red Mtn Pass, and Lake City 139 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 9000 FEET…

  • WHAT: Snow expected above 9000 feet. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 12 inches with locally higher amounts. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

  • WHERE: Northwest San Juan Mountains.

  • WHEN: Until 11 PM MST this evening.

I am not one who likes a lot of model disagreement but I will play along with this scenario. I have also been seeing enhanced precipitation for Ouray, if it occurs maximum potential would be slightly above the 12 -15 inch level. If not I would be more comfortable with 4 to 8 for both Telluride and Ouray.

Purgatory is a tough call. NW flow systems underperform at Purgatory and Wolf Creek. I suppose 2 to 4 max is possible at Purgatory in perfect conditions. That would surprise me though. Less at Wolf Creek today.

The further north you go the better chance of seeing a few flurries or light snow. But I do not expect anything in the lower elevations this time.

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Friday Afternoon

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

12/5/25 Friday 1:45 pm

I wanted to start by saying thank you to the secret elf who cleared my driveway and sidewalk yesterday! You saved me a lot of time as I’ve been busy getting everything ready for a visitor—an old friend of Susan’s who is arriving tomorrow.

As for the northern storm arriving tomorrow, the models still have a wide range, predicting anywhere from 1 to 10 inches of snow. That forecast is not one I’m comfortable releasing. I plan to wait another 12 hours and will do my best to put a reliable forecast together at that time!

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Friday Morning Update-Totals

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

12/5/25 Friday 3:00 am

🌨️ Nice Storm!

Here are the residential reports

Location Snowfall Amount (Inches)
Three Springs area 1.0
Hermosa 2.0
Polar Hamlet (Dec Total up to 12/4) 2.3
828 E. 6th Ave (Durango) 2.5
Animas Valley Elementary School 3.0
Bondad 3.0
CR 311/CR 314 3.0
5 miles north of Cortez 3.0
Dolores (in town) 3.0
Mancos 3.5
2 miles north of Oxford 3.5
Allison 4.0
6 miles south of Mancos (Weber Canyon) 4.0
Bacus Ave (near LPC Fairgrounds) 4.5
CR 234 (3 mi north of Elmore’s) 4.5
Sunnyside Mesa 4.5
Mesa Linda (CR 303) 5.0
Lightner Creek (1.5 mi from Hwy 160) 5.5
Bayfield town 5.75
Glacier 5.75
Deer Valley 6.0
Forrest Groves Estates (7,670 ft) 6.0
Hesperus (CR 125) 6.0
Lightner Creek (Destination Ranch, lower gate 7,400 ft) 6.0
Los Ranchitos (near Lemon) 6.0
Mayday 6.0
Rockwood 6.0
Ticolote (D Bar K/CR 224) 6.0
Vallecito (1/2 mi below) 6.0
Bayfield (Dove Ranch) 6.5
Gem Village 6.5
Rafter J (7400′) 6.5
Timberdale Ranch NW of Bayfield (7800′) 6.5
CR 228 and 502 (7,750 ft) 7.0
CR 234 @ CR 225 7.0
DVE 7.0
Hesperus (8150′) 7.0
Upper Forest Lakes 7.0
Lower Forest Lakes 7.1
Lightner Creek (Destination Ranch, top property 8,500 ft) 7.5
Durango Hills (8000′) 8.0
Durango West 2 (DWG) 8.0
Bellflower Rd (near CR 502/228, 7850′) 8.25
Hermosa Cliffs Ranch (Storm Total) 10.5
15 miles E of Pagosa (8200′) 12.0
Pagosa Springs – Hatcher 12.0
Log Hill (3 mi NW of Ridgway 8,000 ft) 14.5
Ouray (Dec 1-4 Total) 25.6

I will follow up later on the potential for snow in the northern forecast area for tomorrow. This morning, there is a huge model divergence between the European and US models.

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Thursday Morning Update

On By durangoweatherguy1 Comment

12/4/25 Thursday 3:30 am

🌨️ Nice Storm! The Next One: Northerly Flow & Sneaky Snow

I will put together all of your totals today and try to get the storm wrap-up out tomorrow. Two important things:

  • Make sure you only use the big blue link at the bottom of the page, and make sure to include your location when submitting a report.

  • Would love to hear from Silverton. I think the big winner will be Ouray (they were at 22+ yesterday afternoon).

Next Storm Details: Saturday’s Arrival & Model Disagreement

For now, let’s talk about the next storm. The main storm will be well north of us; however, the southerly tail of the storm looks like it should drop far enough south to affect the northern portions of the forecast area from Purgatory to the north. The further north, the greater the impact.

The models agree that after a chance for flurries Friday night, the storm will move in on Saturday morning. They currently disagree on the forecasted amounts, which vary from a couple of inches to well over a foot.

⚠️ Potential for a Mini-Gorge Event

This could be another sneaky high ratio mountain event. Ouray, you may be favored again with another Mini-Gorge Event. Gorge Events essentially are northerly upslope flow from Ridgway to Red Mountain. I say “Mini” because in my opinion, 13 inches is a minimal amount for how crazy those can get.

US 550 could once again have moderate impacts if this storm arrives as the GFS is predicting with lesser impacts for Wolf Creek.

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Wednesday OOOPS-How did I forget Purgatory?

On By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

12/3/25 Wednesday 5:45 am

Sorry about that!

In my last post, I omitted the additional total for Purgatory. Subconsciously, I must have known this was the trickiest forecast because some models are showing a varying storm track. Most models show 4 to 8 additional inches by Thursday, so that is my official forecast. It will depend on when the heaviest snow falls; if it falls later than expected, the ratios could be pushed up quite a bit, resulting in 10 or more inches.

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