11/23/22 Wednesday 6:20 am

I underestimated my pre-holiday to-do list and I was not able to post yesterday. I still have a lot to do but I wanted to update everyone on travel conditions. Later today light snow showers will develop over the northern 550 passes and near Telluride. The snow should continue through the evening and perhaps overnight. Accumulations will be light with generally 1-3 inches.

Overnight, snow showers could develop on Wolf Creek Pass with light snow wrapping up by Thursday with very light accumulations from a dusting to 2 inches.

The models are starting to come together for next week. There are some discrepancies in timing but the European and GFS show a storm system coming in on Tuesday-Wednesday with 4 to 12 inches of snow for the ski areas and a couple to a few inches in the lower and mid-elevation areas. The Canadian model delays the system until Thursday-Friday with similar accumulations. It’s too early to post maps on it but I wanted everyone to be aware that changes are on the way.

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11/20/22 Sunday 7:20 am

It has been fun to watch the lake effect snowfall in the Great Lakes Region and the Northeast United States. I am sure everyone saw the 66-inch total in 24 hours for Orchard Park, New York. It reminds me of some of the storms that came through our area in 2009-2010 and 2018-2019.

Normally, I would be doing a travel update for the holiday. The GFS is the only model holding out for a slight chance of snow showers Wednesday night over the northern portions of the forecast area from Telluride to Red Mountain and Ouray. It also shows light snow showers near Wolf Creek Thursday morning. If this does happen it won’t be a big deal.

Speaking of Telluride, remember there will be significant delays on 145 Monday morning starting at 9 am as tow trucks will be trying to recover a tour bus below Ophir curve near mile point 63. Choose another route if you must travel. This operation will likely take most of the day.

We will see a slight moderation in temperatures over the next couple of days, but don’t put your coats away. Temperatures will likely stay at or slightly below normal for this time of year. It could be worse, one of the coldest places in the United States, Peter Sinks, Utah hit -37.6 f yesterday morning. The current temperature (6:30 am) is -31 f.

Our next best chance of meaningful precipitation, at the moment anyway, looks like it will be between November 27th and 30th. Hang in there, the pattern is going to flip as we get into December. Meteorological winter does not even start until December 1st.

It looks like it was a successful opening day at Purgatory yesterday. I was asked by the folks at Ft Lewis to provide a link to their new skier safety survey. Bookmark this and take a look when you get a chance.

https://www.slidewithrespect.com/

I am still waiting on some data before I talk more about the upcoming winter. Hopefully, I will be able to get something out this week!

My next update will be on Tuesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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11/15/22 Tuesday 6:30 am

We have definitely been in a dry but cold pattern, make no mistake. There is a bright side, patterns flip, and when this one does we will be plenty cold enough to see some cold storms come through for a great start to the winter!

When will this occur? I have done a different type of analysis on the extended model run that came out last night. It shows below-average precipitation through the end of the month.

Here are the liquid precipitation anomalies for the next 7 days. This is the amount of precipitation below average.

Here is the last week of November.

Then things start to turn around, here is December 1st-December 8th.

December 8th-December 15th

December 8th-December 15th

December 18-December 25th

Here is the positive anomaly for the entire month of December

Now let’s look at snowfall week by week. View these more as trends than exact forecasts. The amounts will be too low in the higher elevations and too high in the lowest elevations.

There is not much to look at over the next 7 days. Here is November 22-November 29th

November 29th-December 6th

December 6th-December 13th

December 18th-December 25th

 

 

 

I have no new updates on the contest, remember the drawing is on December 9th. I plan to post my take on the upcoming winter on Sunday. I am not sure there will be anything to talk about before then–we’ll see. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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11/14/22 Monday 10:30 am

When I woke up this morning I was surprised at how much quality (light and fluffy) snow fell last night.  I assumed it was more widespread than it actually was. As it turns out, most locations only got a dusting to an inch. The heaviest snow fell from Hesperus to Lightner Creek and south from Breen to Trappers Crossing.

Three to six inch amounts were common in these areas:  Breen, Hesperus, Durango West 1&2, Lake Durango, Rafter J, Lightner Creek, Shenandoah, Nighthorse, and Trappers Crossing.

I am sure there were other areas in that range but those were the only reports that totaled that much. Of course, the models showed the heavier amounts east of Bayfield but that did not happen. Most areas in eastern La Plata County only received a dusting to one and one-half inches.

Purgatory base got a dusting. Wolf Creek got three inches There was an inch at Coal Bank and Molas passes, Red Mountain got two inches and two and one-half inches fell near the snow shed south of Ouray.

It looks like a cold week ahead, with intermittent snow showers over the next couple of days around Wolf Creek. There are no big changes to the pattern expected until around or after Thanksgiving. But as we saw last night, you never really know.

My next update will be on Tuesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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11/14/22 Monday 6:30 am

I did not think we would have anything to talk about, but I was wrong. The models were wrong, this time a rare upside surprise over the southern forecast area. Send me your totals and I will do an update later today.

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11/13/22 Sunday 5 am

A closed area of low pressure currently near Las Vegas will move through Arizona and into south-central New Mexico tonight. Winds will become southwesterly throughout the day and occasionally gusty but well below warning criteria.  Temperatures will rebound to near average for this time of year.

We will be on the northern periphery of the precipitation. The best chance of snow will be in the higher elevation areas and eastern portions of the forecast area roughly from Bayfield to Wolf Creek. Most of us will be lucky to see a light dusting of snow. Wolf Creek could sneak 2-3 inches if everything goes perfectly.

There is not going to be a lot to talk about after that. Temperatures and precipitation should be low through next week at least. Deep low pressure in the midwest will occasionally retrograde throughout the week which may trigger a few light snow showers near the divide and across the Front Range mountains.

Unless something interesting arises, my next update will be Tuesday morning after I see the new Euro weekly extended model run. That will interesting because it will take us up to December 29th.

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11/11/2022 Friday 8 am

The moisture-starved storm blew through Wednesday late afternoon and night. It brought a little bit of snow to the mountains and very little fanfare to the mid and lower elevations. Those types of systems are not my favorite. For the lower and mid-elevations, I had to track it via barometric pressure readings to know when the front passed.

I am afraid I don’t have good news for the short term. A cut-off low-pressure system will track to our south Sunday night into Monday. Wolf Creek may get a few flakes but that will be it. Next week we will be in between a ridge of high pressure off the west coast and low pressure to our east. There is a slight chance the low pressure could retrograde back west to our area, but it is highly unlikely it will make it over the divide. The models are divided on what happens after next week. I am going to hold off talking about the future until Tuesday.

My next update will be Sunday m0rning.

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11/9/22 Wednesday 8:20 am

I don’t have a lot to add to what I said yesterday. If this storm closed off over us, or if it were to stall at our doorstep, it would be a significant event. The odds of that happening are very low; I don’t expect that to happen.

Here is the system

It looks like the system will reach the western Colorado border between 1 and 2 pm. Snow will likely break out in higher mountains between 2 and 3 pm. It could reach our southern forecast areas between 4 and 5 pm and continue east. With the exception of Wolf Creek, most of the activity should wind down before midnight.

Here is one high-resolution model’s depiction of what that looks like. This is from noon today through 6 am tomorrow morning in one-hour intervals. The blue is snow.

It will be a dramatic frontal passage and will cause some travel issues while it is passing through so it may affect some commutes. In addition to the snow, strong winds will accompany the frontal passage. The NWS looked past the normal accumulation requirements for a Winter Weather Advisory and is concentrating on the wind gusts with the snow that will reduce the visibility. Therefore they are going ahead and issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for the 550 passes and Wolf Creek Pass.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
230 AM MST WED NOV 9 2022

COZ018-019-100000-
/O.EXB.KGJT.WW.Y.0018.221109T1900Z-221110T0700Z/
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF TELLURIDE, OURAY, LAKE CITY, SILVERTON,  AND RICO
230 AM MST WED NOV 9 2022

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT…

* WHAT…SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH.

* WHERE…NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS…PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ON RIDGE TOPS.

_________________________________________________________

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
357 AM MST WED NOV 9 2022

COZ068-091900-
/O.NEW.KPUB.WW.Y.0027.221109T2300Z-221110T0500Z/
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-WOLF CREEK PASS 357 AM MST WED NOV 9 2022

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM MST THIS EVENING…

* WHAT…AN INTENSE BAND OF HEAVY WIND DRIVE SNOW IS LIKELY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 65 MPH.

* WHERE…EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM MST THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS…WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WHICH COULD BLOW DOWN TREES. TRAVEL ACROSS THE PASSES IN THE SAN JUANS MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE THIS EVENING DUE TO NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.

If anything changes, I will post again this afternoon. If not I will try to post tomorrow.  Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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11/8/22 Tuesday 12:45 pm

The latest model runs are moving the storm in and through the area faster than precious runs. Snowfall rates in higher elevation areas will be impressive while the storm is blowing through. It’s just not going to stick around so storm totals will be rather low. Travel will become difficult while the front is moving through. There will be poor visibility on the passes because of the wind and snow, but it will be short-lived. I would avoid traveling over the passes after dark tomorrow night. At the moment, it looks like the storm will be long gone by Thursday morning. For now, I am thinking 1-3 inches for Purgatory. 3-6 inches for Telluride, Silverton, and the 550 passes, and 3-6 for Wolf Creek.

I was going to do an extended outlook today, it looks like there was a data error again calculating the precipitation anomalies due to an incorrect average precipitation amount for the period. Hopefully, it will be fixed next week.

My next update will be on Wednesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site!

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11/6/22 Sunday 7:45 am

A strong storm will affect the west this week and bring heavy snow to our west. Unfortunately, after stalling to our west, it appears the storm will hit the accelerator and blow through late Wednesday exiting the area as quickly as it came in. The models show this storm moving so fast I have little confidence in what they are showing.

I am going to hold off on any precipitation forecast for now and see how the future runs handle the situation. If the models are correct, it would result in a brief squall with a dusting of snow for the mid and lower elevations, with a couple of quick inches in the mountains. After that, it looks like a period of boring weather for 7 to 10 days before the storm track looks more favorable for SW Colorado. As always, I will look at that more closely on my Tuesday extended outlook.

My next update will be on Tuesday.

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