Friday Update–Storm Recap And Next Week’s Storm

On November 4, 2022 By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

11/4/22 Friday 1:20 pm

Overall the Wednesday morning full run of the European was the most accurate. Good to know going forward that with a few tweaks here and there I should be able to trust what I am seeing this winter.

Wolf Creek reported 20 inches, although the SNOTEL site near there reported slightly more. Red Mountain Pass ended up with 19 inches, Molas Pass came in with 15 inches and 16 inches was reported at Coal Bank Pass. Purgatory is not reporting yet, the snow stake is usually showing lower amounts than what actually fell. I got a report from Hermosa Cliffs Ranch of 14 inches, and 12 inches from Lake Purgatory. Hermosa Cliffs has some weird things going on orographically that usually lead to higher totals than Purgatory Resort, so I am going to guess 12 inches for Purgatory. I have no idea what fell at Telluride but it looked like about 10 inches on the mountain.

Other notable totals were 9.5 inches in Upper Durango Hills, 5 inches at CR503 at 7,500 feet, 4.4 inches in Lower Forest Lakes, and 3.75 inches north of Mancos at Silver Creek Ranch. I did not get the final totals from Upper Forest Lakes and Lemon. I did not get any reports from Vallecito.

The next couple of storms are going to come in north of our area, if you are traveling north or east of Grand Junction you may want to keep an eye on the weather.

Our next storm should come in Wednesday of next week. At the moment it looks weaker than this one was, but a lot could change between now and then. I have my eyes on it and I plan to do my first update on that storm on Sunday morning so make sure you tune in then.

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Thursday Afternoon Brief Update

On November 3, 2022 By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

11/3/22 Thursday 3:45 pm

I am looking forward to seeing snow totals tomorrow. The main feature moved through earlier today but there is a shortwave trough to our west that may kick up precipitation this evening if it moves through tonight. Ultimately, I think the expected colder air will produce more snow tonight regardless of the flow, not a lot, but more. Thanks for all of the reports. FYI the “rare” south-southeasterly flow that I saw on the Euro the other day did happen for a while.

My next update will be on Friday.

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Thursday Morning Update

On November 3, 2022 By durangoweatherguy2 Comments

11/3/22 Thursday 5 am

I am eagerly awaiting daylight to get a better look at the webcams to see how the storm is progressing. The storm has not slowed significantly as it usually does. It is snowing at Hesperus Hill which is visible on the CDOT webcams. That location is just shy of 8,200 feet. Some of the temperatures above 8,000 feet are warmer than I expected which concerns me a bit for storm totals. I was on the low end of most forecasters with my totals so things could be worse.

I gave up on adjusting forecasts mid-storm a few years ago. I have had a history of giving up too early on storms. At this point, it is going to do what it is going to do. I will continue to watch from the sidelines and enjoy the fact that we are not experiencing boring weather right now.

I was recently talking about winter with a couple of people lately. November 15th is when I will make my thoughts public. I am not going to produce any type of numerical forecast, instead, I will just share my overall thoughts on what I expect.

I will post again later today.

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Storm Forecast–Revised Amounts For Warnings and Advisories

On November 2, 2022 By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

11/2/22 Wednesday 3:45 pm

NWS Grand Junction bumped up the storm accumulations and lowered the elevation for the Warning to 8,000 feet.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
231 PM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022

COZ019-031100-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0008.221103T0000Z-221104T0600Z/
Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Silverton, Rico, and Hesperus
231 PM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY NIGHT ABOVE 8000 FEET…

* WHAT…Heavy snow expected above 8000 feet. Total snow
accumulations of 12 to 24 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45
mph.

* WHERE…Southwest San Juan Mountains.

* WHEN…From 6 PM Wednesday to midnight MDT Thursday night.

* IMPACTS…Travel will be very difficult at times with blowing
snow significantly reducing visibility.

_______________________________________________________

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
231 PM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022

COZ018-031100-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0016.221103T0600Z-221104T1200Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, and Lake City
231 PM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 AM MDT FRIDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET…

* WHAT…Snow expected above 8000 feet. Total snow accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE…Northwest San Juan Mountains.

* WHEN…From midnight Wednesday night to 6 AM MDT Friday.

* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
could significantly reduce visibility.

_________________________________________________________

Pueblo NWS increased totals from 1-3 feet.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
307 PM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022

COZ068-030515-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0014.221103T0000Z-221104T0600Z/
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
307 PM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY NIGHT…

* WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
feet. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet.

* WHEN…From 6 PM this evening to midnight MDT Thursday night.

* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

________________________________________________________

Before I get started I want to remind everyone that while we do have a major winter storm on the way, the main event will likely be at or above 7,800 feet on Thursday. There will be some melting before the coldest air arrives late on Thursday.

CDOT and the counties will have their hands full with the potential for a very slick drive overnight Thursday and early Friday morning. Rural commuters even in the lower elevations will need to be aware of this for Friday morning. I will talk more about that on Thursday.

Snow will start in higher elevation areas above 9,500 feet this evening. Snow should start falling in the northern forecast area above 8,000 feet between midnight and 3 am. The European shows the snow level dropping to 7,300 by 6 am, that may be a bit premature, we’ll see. How many times does a storm slow down at the last minute? The answer is more times than not. So don’t panic if you are in the mid-elevations wake up and look outside first thing tomorrow and nothing is happening yet.

The highest totals with this storm will fall at Wolf Creek. Next up will be the higher Peaks of the La Platas and the backcountry just west of Silverton.

Here are my storm totals: Wolf Creek 24-30 inches

Purgatory, Telluride, 550 passes: 10-14 inches

Mayday, Rico: 8-12 inches

Vallecito, Lemon, Ouray, Durango Hills above 7,800 feet, Trew Creek area, Tween Lakes area: 7-11 inches

Glacier Club, Hesperus Hill: 6-9 inches

Edgemont Highlands, Durango Hills at or below 7,500 feet, Forest Lakes, Deer Valley Estates Hesperus: 4-7 inches

Durango West 1&2, Rafter J, Lake Durango, Elk Stream, Shenandoah, Trappers Crossing, Long Hollow: 3-5 inches

Mancos, Dolores, Bayfield, Upper Gem Village: 1-3 inches

Durango in town, DRO area: up to 2 inches

Cortez, Aztec, Bondad area. Marvel: up to 1 inch

I would appreciate any reports on this storm as well as storm totals on Friday morning. My next update will be early Thursday. Drive safe.

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Wednesday Afternoon Model Update

On November 2, 2022 By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

11/2/22 Wednesday 12:45 pm

I am not going to post every model that I posted this morning, most of them have not changed very much. The Euro is moving in the direction of the other models. Here is its latest run.

That is nearly a 70% increase in total precipitation at Wolf Creek since the overnight run, which is what I was hoping for. It will be reflected in my snowfall forecast later today.

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Wednesday Morning Model Update

On November 2, 2022 By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

11/2/22 Wednesday 7 am

Numerous Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued across the western slope. Here are the ones pertaining to our forecast area.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
446 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022

COZ019-022145-
/O.CON.KGJT.WS.W.0008.221103T0000Z-221104T0600Z/
Southwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Silverton, Rico, and Hesperus (Mayday)
446 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY NIGHT ABOVE 8000 FEET…

* WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 20
inches mainly above 8500 feet. Locally higher accumulations also
possible above timberline. Winds will gusts 45 to 60 mph above
10000 feet.

* WHERE…Southwest San Juan Mountains.

* WHEN…From 6 PM Wednesday to midnight MDT Thursday night.

* IMPACTS…Travel will be very difficult at times with blowing
snow significantly reducing visibility.

___________________________________________________

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
446 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022

COZ018-022145-
/O.CON.KGJT.WW.Y.0016.221103T0600Z-221104T1200Z/
Northwest San Juan Mountains-
Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, and Lake City
446 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MDT FRIDAY ABOVE 8000 FEET…

* WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches
with locally higher amounts. Winds gusting 40 to 55 mph above
10000 feet.

* WHERE…Northwest San Juan Mountains.

* WHEN…From midnight Wednesday night to 6 AM MDT Friday.

* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy-blowing
snow could significantly reduce visibility.

______________________________________________________

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
358 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022

COZ068-021800-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0014.221103T0000Z-221104T0600Z/
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-Wolf Creek
358 AM MDT Wed Nov 2 2022

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY NIGHT…

* WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 30 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet.

* WHEN…From 6 PM this evening to midnight MDT Thursday night.

* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.
The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening
commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

_________________________________________________________

The models have done no favors for forecasters overnight. The GFS, Canadian, German, NDFD, NBM, and WPC models all show very high storm totals in the higher elevations, especially around Wolf Creek. However, the Euro is showing a lot of restraint with Wolf Creek.

European

Versus all of the others

GFS

Canadian–likely overdone below 8,500 feet

German

NOAA’s blended models are all in on very heavy snow for Wolf Creek. All are showing 30-36 inches of snow at pass level.

NOAA NBM

NOAA NDFD

NOAA WPC

Obviously, I have a lot to digest this morning and I need to get to it. I will do another brief model update around 1 pm followed by a storm forecast before 5 pm.

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Tuesday Extended Outlook

On November 1, 2022 By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

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11/1/22 Tuesday 11 am

This extended model has been very successful this year, it helped me greatly with the monsoon forecast earlier this year. It continues to advertise below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation through mid-December, which is great news!

It is also important to note that this model has a warm and dry bias to it. It will likely verify colder and wetter throughout our forecast area than what it shows here.

Here are below-average temperature anomalies. The numbers indicate how many degrees below average the overall temperatures are forecast to be.

This is now through November 30th

Through December 15th

Here are the precipitation anomalies. This shows the amount of liquid precipitation in inches above average for the periods.

Through November 30th

Through December 15th

According to this latest run, the first half of December will be very wet.

Here is the snowfall forecast through December 15th.

Next is the snowfall forecast for all of our regional airport locations in Southwest Colorado. The graph at the bottom of the images shows the average output of 50+ model members. The forecast is in the light blue bar graph bottom labeled “mean”

Telluride (TEX)

In this case, the snowfall forecast is for 38 inches at Telluride airport by December 15th.

Pagosa (Stevens field)

Durango (DRO)

Montrose (MTJ)

Cortez (CEZ)

I will post a couple of updates on Wednesday. Thanks for following and supporting the site and the contest!

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Tuesday Update–Winter Storm Watch

On November 1, 2022 By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

11/1/22 Tuesday 6:40 am

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An early Winter Storm Watch has been issued in anticipation of the storm arriving late Wednesday night.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
308 AM MDT TUE NOV 1 2022

COZ019-012145-
/O.NEW.KGJT.WS.A.0009.221103T0000Z-221104T1500Z/
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SILVERTON, RICO, AND HESPERUS
308 AM MDT TUE NOV 1 2022

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING…

* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.

* WHERE…SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

* WHEN…FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE A FOOT ARE MOST PROBABLE ABOVE 9000 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

Consider this their first draft as there are a lot of “holes” in this Winter Storm Watch. Telluride will eventually be included in at least a Winter Weather Advisory. Also, I think Friday morning is probably too early of an end time.

Pueblo NWS also chimed in for Wolf Creek. They never venture too far out on a limb with their guidance.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
357 AM MDT TUE NOV 1 2022

COZ068-011800-
/O.NEW.KPUB.WS.A.0010.221103T0000Z-221104T1500Z/
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET-
357 AM MDT TUE NOV 1 2022

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING…

* WHAT…HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 24 INCHES POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.

* WHERE…EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET.

* WHEN…FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. PATCHY-BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING OR EVENING COMMUTE.

Meanwhile, expect breezy and slightly warmer conditions today and tomorrow, however, increasing clouds may limit the amount of warming.

Little else has changed in the last 24 hours, precipitation should get underway in the higher elevations late Wednesday dropping by Thursday morning. I am still all in for my “all snow” level of 8,000 by Thursday morning, I do expect this to drop throughout the day on Thursday. I will be preparing more of a detailed forecast for this storm which will be out late Wednesday.

For now, let’s still go with the models’ total liquid precipitation maps. The most important part of the graphic is the numerical chart on the right side or immediately below the map. The colors correspond to the numerical chart which details the precipitation output for the duration of the storm.

I continue to be most comfortable with NOAA’s blended model solutions

NBM

WPC

Next up would be the Canadian, although, I think the totals are a bit over-inflated, we’ll see.

Believe it or not, the GFS comes next.

Followed by the European, I think the Euro is trying to introduce some southerly-southeasterly flow here, which would be highly unusual.

I will be posting my extended outlook later today. Thanks for following and supporting the site and the contest!

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Monday Update

On October 31, 2022 By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

10/31/22 Monday 8 am

Everything is looking good for the upcoming storm. The timing has not changed. It will be windy Tuesday and Wednesday, and Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week.

For now, I am sticking with 8,000 feet for my all snow level, although, it will drop much lower than that late Thursday night into Friday morning. The problem is the winds will not support favorable accumulation in most of the lower-elevation areas.

Regardless, it looks like some beneficial moisture is on the way for everyone. Let’s look at the models.

GFS

As is usually the case, I think the GFS is too wet in the higher elevations

Canadian

This model is a little better but is still too wet in the higher elevations, Pagosa, and Cortez.

European

The Euro looks pretty good, but I think it may be a tiny bit low in the higher elevations.

Overall, I like the NOAA blended solutions the best.

NOAA NBM

NOAA WPC

My next update will be on Tuesday. I will do an update on this storm, then a separate post with the extended outlook.

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Sunday Morning Update

On October 30, 2022 By durangoweatherguyLeave a comment

10/30/22 Sunday 7 am

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The models are getting slightly more consistent on a run-to-run basis. Warm and windy conditions on Tuesday will transition to cold, wet, and sloppy for a couple of days beginning very late Wednesday /early Thursday. Travel will be impacted in the mountains and some of the mid-elevation areas. The passes will be especially messy. If you have major travel planned on Thursday to Friday which will take you over the passes expect it to take delays.

The models agree on the timing at the moment, but they don’t agree on the exact track of the storm. There is a chance that a piece could go south and impact Northern New Mexico. If you are planning on driving to ABQ you could be affected as well.

The other piece of the puzzle is the snow level. Before it’s done I expect snow well below 7,000 feet this time. The GFS shows a warmer storm and the Euro shows a colder storm. A lot of that will have to do with the storm track and it is too early to figure that out. If I were pressed I would say all snow at 8000 feet or above.

Here are the liquid precipitation forecast maps from the latest runs of our favorite models. Multiply by 10 at or above 8000 feet for snow forecasts.