Tag: Animas River

Friday Morning: From Denial To Flood Watch: NWS GJT Plays Catch-Up On Incoming Surge (Again)

On By durangoweatherguy

10/30/26  Friday 4:00 am

The last two days weve heard this:

“Chances for river flooding remains low at this point, as these totals will be spread
over an almost 48 hour period.”  “River flooding continues to look unlikely
at these values spread over 48 hours.”   “River flooding seems unlikely, but localized impacts due to rainfall on saturated soils are expected.”  “While rivers are forecast to remain below action stage, a growing concern lies in the potential for runoff around saturated hillsides in the region.”

Now This:

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
942 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

COZ019-021>023-UTZ022-028-029-302100-
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.A.0011.261101T1200Z-261102T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southwest San Juan Mountains-Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-
Animas River Basin-San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-La Sal and
Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
Including the cities of Pagosa Springs, Silverton, Rico, Cortez,
Mancos, Dolores, Dove Creek, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, Blanding,
Oljato-Monument Valley, Goulding, Bluff, Tselakai Dezza, Aneth,
Montezuma Creek, Mexican Hat, Halchita, White Mesa, Monticello, La
Sal, Eastland, Spanish Valley, Fry Canyon, and Canyonlands National
Park
942 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Colorado, including the following
  areas, Animas River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, San
  Juan River Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains and southeast
  Utah, including the following areas, Canyonlands/Natural Bridges,
  La Sal and Abajo Mountains and Southeast Utah.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, recently burned areas, and other low-lying and
  flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm
  drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.

Things are changing quickly while the CBRFC (Colorado Basin River Forecast Center) plays catch up with their river peak and flow forecasts. I will have a more detailed update out soon!

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Thursday Midday Latest & Model Comparisons

On By durangoweatherguy

10/29/26  Thursday

Quick Note: Models show the storm speeding up through the first half, with 0.30″-0.60″ of liquid precipitation by Saturday afternoon.

Conversely, they are slowing the Sunday system; it may be with us most of Monday.

I continue to see high snow levels of 10,000’+ until the last 6 to 10 hours of the storm. That will make for a difficult snow forecast for anyone trying to figure it out.

The latest from NWS

Hydrologic Outlook
COC007-033-067-083-113-UTC037-302100-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1053 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Low pressure begins to dig southward from the PACNW on Friday,
tapping into a fetch of Pacific moisture that will evolve into an
atmospheric river streaming into the Desert Southwest this weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms develop on Friday and Saturday across the
region. Lighter rainfall totals Friday and Saturday will reflect,
initially lower, moisture. However, a few thunderstorms could produce
impactful downpours on saturated soils left over from last weekend`s
historic rainfall.

Deeper moisture develops Saturday night and early Sunday. This is
expected to produce heavier and more widespread rainfall across
southeast UT and southwest CO Sunday and Monday, mostly below 10000
feet. While rivers are forecast to remain below action stage, a
growing concern lies in the potential for runoff around saturated
hillsides in the region. This could produce rock, mud, and debris
flows onto roadways, as well as flash flood prone burn scars, washes,
slot canyons, and arroyos. Early estimates predict an area of 1 to 2
inches of new rainfall for portions of southeast UT and southwest CO.

This is a preliminary forecast that hinges on slight shifts in a
strong moisture plume impacting the region. It also attempts to
capture the most statistically likely outcome, despite stronger and
weaker outlier predictions. Outdoor enthusiasts, motorists, and
residents of recent flood impacted areas are encouraged to remain
abreast of the developing forecast in the coming days.

Finally, at least an acknowledgment. But I have seen no models that show only 1-2 inches of rain. Grand Junction NWS is still downplaying the event, saying the rivers will flow below action stage.  Apparently they did not see this:

Keep in mind: bad data in, bad data out, so if they expect this peak with 1-2 inches of rain, what would double do?

I dug deep and found those model runs from before the last event. Overall, the GFS AI and Canadian are very similar to before- remember, those were the most accurate models last time. The similarity ends with the European. I will be watching that closely.

 

Here are some comparison model runs: current vs. last week.

Current GFS AI

Last week GFS AI

 

 

Current Canadian

Last week Canadian

Current European

Last week European

That’s all I have for now. If something changes before the morning, I will jump back on.

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Thursday Morning: Late Update

On By durangoweatherguy

10/29/26 Thursday 5 am

I need some time this morning to reevaluate what we went through at the last event, compare the model runs from before the event, and the delivery duration for total precipitation. So my update will be later today, not out of laziness, but because I’m genuinely concerned for our area.

When I see this, these were the two most accurate models last event.

And this

And then I read this from NWS:

 Deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and will increase the chances
  for impactful precipitation for southwest CO Sunday and
  Monday.

- River flooding seems unlikely, but localized impacts due to
  rainfall on saturated soils are expected.

Then I see this:

I have to be very careful here because my head is about to explode. All of these things cannot be true at once.

So I am forcing myself into a timeout study break to double-check everything. If the NWS thought process is that most of the high-elevation precipitation will be snow, therefore, “flooding seems unlikely”, then we have a whole other set of concerns, like 3+ to 5 feet of snow at Wolf Creek.

Yesterday, I said if the models were as high or higher than this afternoon’s precipitation totals, I would be pressing the panic button. I am there right now, but I need to catch my breath and spend some more time on this.

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Wednesday Afternoon: Concerning-Every Model From This Morning Went Higher

On By durangoweatherguy

10/28/26 Wednesday Noon

The big story is in this post’s title. After the models increased totals overnight, they did it again this morning. Not only for Sunday and Monday, but now for Saturday too; of course, it was right after I said, “I would not be surprised if the Saturday precipitation did not happen.”

I am going to skip the detailed snow-level talk for now. Models are fluctuating those snow levels as they try to anticipate when the cold air will arrive versus the moisture. At a glance, rather than a deep dive, it looks like the snow levels will start high, in the 10,500 to 11,500 range, and drop below pass levels by late Sunday afternoon or evening.

If I were planning to go over the passes Sunday late afternoon through Tuesday morning, I would change my plans. You may not even have a choice, because they may pre-emptively close passes early before it gets bad.

OK, I have talked about the models; now let’s see them

European

European AI

Canadian-these bullseyes in the Canadian and the GFS AI below it are very concerning.

GFS AI “crazy totals”

We are still 4 days out, so I can’t share the shorter-term/higher-resolution models yet. I can add those to the mix tomorrow afternoon.

If, 24 hours from now, the models are this aggressive or higher. I will be pushing the panic button, as I did early on last week.

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Wednesday Morning: Anomalous Runs Or Genuine Concern?

On By durangoweatherguy

10/28/26 Wednesday 5 am (overslept)

Changes:
  • The European is slowly going back to a wetter solution
  • Latest model runs show more of a “direct hit” starting Sunday
  • Models are delaying cold-air infiltration until the moisture is mostly gone on Monday, raising snow levels back to 564 dam (11,000 ft).
  • This would increase high-elevation runoff
  • I am still leaning on Saturday being a non-event, maybe nuisance rain of 0.10″-0.30″

Sounds scary, but this is one model run; it could be anomalous, or it could be a trend. Still a lot of uncertainty, but it’s an eye-opener.

European

European AI

Canadian: I keep referring to the GFS AI and Canadian as having “crazy” totals. Compared to the other models, their totals look crazy, but the Canadian and GFS AI were the most accurate for the last event.

GFS AI

Canadian

Again, don’t panic; be aware. The next two sets of model runs will tell us whether these are anomalous runs or the new trend.

 

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Saturday Night Thoughts: Thinking Of Ship Rock, NM

On By durangoweatherguy

10/24/26 Saturday 5:45 pm

I hate to turn people down for forecast area requests. If it is not an area I know thoroughly, I don’t pretend I have all the answers. Weather can be a big deal. When I get a question about a travel route, I want to give the best, most accurate, and helpful reply I can.

I don’t know much about New Mexico weather. I know about 85% of Colorado weather tendencies after 33 years of living here. I met my wife 33 years ago- no coincidence; I figured out this was the place for me.

So I get a number of requests for New Mexico coverage. I also get a lot of requests from South Fork, Alamosa, Center, etc. I have no idea how to help these people. If I had time to learn these areas, I would, but I am otherwise too consumed to put in the study work.

Jeff Gets Right To The Main Point Below (he allegedly promises)

A lot of disasters in the region the last couple of days. Pagosa, my goodness. Who is talking about Arboles over the last several days? Our county roads?

Pivot:

Shiprock, New Mexico: Currently, Not Receding Yet

All of the other hydrographs have dropped like a rock? Why? Most of it goes here, to Shiprock, just west of the confluence of everything coming from our forecast area and beyond.

So sending out your good vibes, whatever your choice, is a good idea tonight

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Saturday Afternoon: Flood Warning Extended, Busy Day

On By durangoweatherguy

10/24/26 Saturday 3:30 pm-4:15 pm

NWS is all over us with coverage right now, which is great. Thank you!

Here is their latest:

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
331 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

COC007-053-067-252130-
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.W.0024.261024T2131Z-261025T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Archuleta CO-Hinsdale CO-La Plata CO-
331 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...Northwestern Archuleta County in southwestern Colorado...
  Southwestern Hinsdale County in southwestern Colorado...
  La Plata County in southwestern Colorado...

* WHEN...Until 330 PM MDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Numerous roads
  remain closed due to flooding. Low-water crossings are inundated
  with water and may not be passable.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 329 PM MDT, local law enforcement reported heavy rain in the
    warned area due to thunderstorms. Flooding is ongoing Between 2
    and 4 inches of rain have fallen since Thursday morning.
  - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the
    warned area. This could cause additional rises within rivers,
    creeks and streams.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, La Plata, Falfa, Oxford, Bondad,
    Hesperus, Breen, Vallecito, Mayday, Kline, Marvel, Tiffany,
    Allison and Redmesa.

Show of hands-especially for long-term followers: Who remembers them ever working La Plata, Falfa, Oxford, Bondad, Breen, Kline, Tiffany, Allison, and Red Mesa into anything they have ever, ever, ever put out?

No sense in doing a model update this afternoon; they have struggled all day long. We will take another look in the morning. I won’t post until then. Unless I need to.

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Saturday Update: Weekend Showers And Thunderstorms

On By durangoweatherguy

10/24/26 Saturday 3:30 am- 6:30 am

I haven’t addressed this in a while, but the time I put at the beginning of each post is when I sit down at my desk and start perusing the models. I am trying to get into the habit of putting the time I finish before I hit the publish button.

Overview:   Wet likes to stay wet… Showers and thunderstorms today, tonight, and tomorrow, moving out of the area late Sunday. The heaviest rain will fall today.

This should give way to 4 or 5 days of temporarily dry weather while the storm track retreats north of our area.

Then, Friday night into Saturday, models are advertising another multi-day storm. I know. It’s becoming a familiar setup: a west coast low-pressure system combines with tropical moisture and gets funneled into our area. It’s too early to dig into this. I will need to see a couple more days of model runs before I have any confidence in the details

News?

I am not sure when this happened, but the local radar is working; at least in Durango, I noticed it last night. It is doing exactly what it is supposed to do. It picks up the activity below the Grand Junction/National Radar.

“La Plata Live Radar” (these radar screenshots were taken at 5:20 am)

BUT, you can’t rely on it 100%; it has a very limited range, so you need to check both local radar and the site’s Hi-Res Radar. These screenshots were taken at the same time (5:20 am)

“Hi-Res Radar”

To switch between the two, click the layers icon at the top left of the screen, right above the full-screen button. For the La Plata Live Radar, I like to switch to “Dark” mode; for Hi-Res, I leave it on “Satellite” mode.

Fingers crossed it works this well in the winter!

Current Weather

So far, the activity has been spotty, but when the first storm blew up over my neighborhood at 4 am, I got brief heavy rain that dropped 0.20″ in a couple of minutes. The rainfall rate briefly hit 3.57″ per hour.

Since then, I have had occasional on-and-off showers (here comes another one at 6:20 am). It appears the La Plata radar has a little longer lag time than the national radar.

Based upon this early activity, I fear the models are severely underforecasting this weekend event, and I am very concerned! I feel like I am doing a play-by-play here: this latest cell briefly measured rain intensity of 4.09″/hr.

I already have had 0.61″ up here in DW2. It’s going to be a long day!

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River Forecast Site Issues- Don’t Buy It!

On By durangoweatherguy

Friday 5 pm

It occurs to me that these stage and flow forecasts are displaying a baseline recession curve. That means they show what would happen without any more rain.

This is what happened with the Dolores River and Mancos River when I woke up cranky and got in trouble (again) this morning. If you missed it, we went two days with CBRFC (NOAA’s Colorado Basin River Forecast Center) forecasting no problems with the Dolores River, while the experts (local residents) emailed me with their concerns. I woke up at 3 am this morning, and their forecast peak was over action stage.

Dolores locals (many whitewater rafters who understand all of this better than I) tell me they are concerned that, at a certain level, the river will take back its historic floodplain. It’s called channel avulsion. Water doesn’t like to be engineered; eventually, water wins.

In the railroad days of the late 1800s and early 1900s, they literally moved the Dolores River to protect the tracks and support a new town layout.

Then early  October 1911, a massive Eastern Pacific Hurricane recurved and turned a firehose over what is now our forecast area (sound familiar?). The Dolores River re-occupied (for a while) its former home.

This was the same storm that flooded Durango in 1911, and Pagosa, and everywhere in our forecast area. The Animas blew right through Durango with 25,000 cfs, washing out the bridges at 15th Street—including the Denver & Rio Grande railroad bridge right where the train used to cross —even after they desperately parked coal railcars on it to try to weigh it down (geniuses)…

Sorry, huge rabbit hole.

Whatever I do, I am not going to talk about the Post Halloween Storm. Yes, Moms and Dads, I looked at the Demons away schedule.

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More Flood Warnings

On By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26 Friday 4 pm

Thunderstorms are moving into parts of the forecast area. They will become more widespread this evening.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
357 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026  
  
COC007-053-067-242145-  
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.W.0021.261023T2157Z-261024T2145Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/  
ARCHULETA CO-HINSDALE CO-LA PLATA CO-  
357 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026  
   
..FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MDT SATURDAY  
  
* WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES.  
  
* WHERE...NORTHWESTERN ARCHULETA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  SOUTHWESTERN HINSDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  LA PLATA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 345 PM MDT SATURDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...FLOODING OF RIVERS, CREEKS, STREAMS, AND OTHER LOW-LYING  
  AND FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS CONTINUES. SEVERAL STRUCTURES ARE  
  FLOODED, AND NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO WIDESPREAD  
  FLOODING IMPACTS.  
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...  
  - AT 350 PM MDT, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF  
    DAMAGE AND FLOODING IMPACTS. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN FAST AND HIGH  
    AND WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO  
    1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA FROM THUNDERSTORMS  
    DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, OVERNIGHT AND REDEVELOPING TOMORROW.  
    PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING  
    AND FLASH FLOODING .  
  - THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...  
    ANIMAS RIVER, LA PLATA, LOS PINOS, AND VALLECITO CREEK.  
  - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
    DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, LA PLATA, FALFA, OXFORD, BONDAD,  
    HESPERUS, BREEN, VALLECITO, MAYDAY, KLINE, MARVEL, TIFFANY,  
    ALLISON AND REDMESA.  

I remain on standby…

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