3:00 pm
I wanted to get this out so you can check the site or your email later. I am not sure how long this update will take to write, but it’s a big deal: the Animas (downtown) will exceed Action Stage and be less than an inch from flood stage by noon tomorrow.
10/22/2026 Thursday 12:20 pm
OK, no break. As soon as I hit publish, this came out:
Archuleta CO-Hinsdale CO-La Plata CO-
1218 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026
...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by thunderstorms and excessive rainfall is
expected.
* WHERE...Western Archuleta County in southwestern Colorado...
Southern Hinsdale County in southwestern Colorado...
Southern La Plata County in southwestern Colorado...
* WHEN...Until midnight MDT Tonight.
* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Streams
continue to rise due to excess runoff from earlier rainfall.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 1212 PM MDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in
the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen over
the last 24 hours.
- This includes but is not limited to the following streams...
Vallecito Creek, La Plata River, Animas River and many creeks and
tributaries that feed into these rivers.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Durango, La Plata, Falfa, Hesperus, Bondad, Breen, Mayday, Kline,
Marvel, Redmesa and Vallecito.
I am glad they did this, BUT the existing Flood Watch expires tomorrow at noon. Do you want to know what’s not going to expire? The rain!
The Flood Watch reads like flood danger will be over by noon tomorrow. You can’t just flip a switch and end it. It looks like we may see a short lull tomorrow afternoon before the second part rolls in very late Friday night/very early Saturday morning. Here are the latest forecast totals between noon today and Monday morning.
The point is, the danger doesn’t go away when this flood watch does! I hope (nudge nudge) they issue an overlapping Flood Watch for the weekend, because ending this one without following up on the weekend sends the wrong message.
I am going to try to post another flood update after CBRFG updates their forecasts later today. At least the crucial ones.
10/22/26 Thursday 9 am-12 pm
Junction Creek (and all other tributaries to the Animas River)
A couple of things that came up in an email. I have had questions regarding Junction Creek. What I am going to say is not exclusive to Junction Creek. Any creek or ditch draining into the Animas River is going to have the same situation.
With the Animas forecast peak, all tributaries will backwater, slowing drainage and potentially causing flooding in low-lying areas. This event will not even be a top 25 event for this location DRGC2(bridge near Powerhouse Science Center). You have likely seen pictures of the historic flooding when 25,000 cfs was recorded in October 1911.
When I, debatably, misspoke about the historic levels, I was referring to DGOC2 (the Animas below the Pump Plant) location. Technically, not a historic flow. But it did not exist many years ago. There are only 18 years of data at this newer location. So, technically, this will be a historic flow relative to the 18 years of data. I should have been clearer, but I want to make sure residents living south of town along the Animas know what to expect.
Vallecito Creek/Los Pinos Discrepancy
Last year, on October 11th, both locations ran much higher than the current forecast peak for this event. After some digging, I found out that, because these events fell outside of the water year, they are still “under review”, which means they will go into the CBRFC data next spring. I will be more careful talking about historic flows, now that I have that background knowledge. I will just include forecast, action stage, and flood stage
Update 10:40 am
The new data is out, and as I expected, everything is going higher…
I included the hydrograph on this one because this is the most dire situation in SW Colorado
San Juan River at Pagosa Springs: I don’t know how or if this will affect travel. Forecast Peak is Friday at 6 am.
Animas-Durango DRGC2 (bridge near Science Center): Now is forecast to surpass Action Stage on Friday at Noon. This will affect all residents along tributaries to the Animas, as well as low-lying ground around Trimble and along 550 to Animas City. Forecast peak is Friday at noon.
| Forecast Date: | 2026-10-22 16:00Z |
| Forecast Peak: | 7.07 ft, 7464 cfs (10/23/18Z) |
| Critical Stages/Flows: | Flood: 8.0 ft, 10000 cfs – Action: 7.0 ft, 7288 cfs |
| Current Observation: | 5.10 ft, 3286 cfs (10/22/15Z) |
Animas-Durango DGOC2- Below Pump Plant: No data for Action Stage or Flood Stage: Residents South of this location, particularly along La Posta Rd, should treat this as if action stage will be surpassed by Friday at 1 pm.
| Forecast Date: | 2026-10-22 16:00Z |
| Forecast Peak: | 8.51 ft, 7782 cfs (10/23/19Z) |
| Critical Stages/Flows: | Flood: NA – Action: NA |
| Current Observation: | 6.47 ft, 3602 cfs (10/22/16Z) |
La Plata River at Hesperus: Above Action Stage, 3 inches below Flood Stage. Forecast peak 12:00 am Friday
| Forecast Date: | 2026-10-22 16:00Z |
| Forecast Peak: | 5.22 ft, 553 cfs (10/23/06Z) |
| Critical Stages/Flows: | Flood: 5.5 ft, 685 cfs – Action: 5.0 ft, 453 cfs |
| Current Observation: | 4.75 ft, 327 cfs (10/22/16Z) |
Vallecito Creek: Forecast Peak 12:00 am Friday
| Forecast Date: | 2026-10-22 16:00Z |
| Forecast Peak: | 4.80 ft, 3888 cfs (10/23/06Z) |
| Critical Stages/Flows: | Flood: NA – Action: NA |
| Current Observation: | 3.39 ft, 1492 cfs (10/22/17Z) |
Los Pinos Above Vallecito: I double-checked with the provisional site. Last year the reading was 7.18 feet with 3400 CFS, FYI. Forecast Peak Friday 6 am.
| Forecast Date: | 2026-10-22 16:00Z |
| Forecast Peak: | 7.70 ft, 4195 cfs (10/23/12Z) |
| Critical Stages/Flows: | Flood: NA – Action: NA |
| Current Observation: | 5.72 ft, 1259 cfs (10/22/17Z) |
Piedra at Arboles: I confirmed on the provisional site; this is forecast to be the 2nd highest level in 110 years.
| Forecast Date: | 2026-10-22 16:00Z |
| Forecast Peak: | 8.18 ft, 9446 cfs (10/23/18Z) |
| Critical Stages/Flows: | Flood: NA – Action: NA |
| Current Observation: | 4.37 ft, 2572 cfs (10/22/17Z) |
| Historical Peak: | 8370 cfs, 1970-09-06 |
Animas at Cedar Hill: Above Action Stage; this would take over the fifth-highest spot in history (I double-checked). Forecast peak Friday at 5 pm
| Forecast Date: | 2026-10-22 16:00Z |
| Forecast Peak: | 9.75 ft, 8190 cfs (10/23/23Z) |
| Critical Stages/Flows: | Flood: 10.5 ft, 10411 cfs – Action: 9.5 ft, 7524 cfs |
| Current Observation: | 7.59 ft, 3505 cfs (10/22/17Z) |
La Plata River at CO/NM state line:
| Forecast Date: | 2026-10-22 16:00Z |
| Forecast Peak: | 8.00 ft, 884 cfs (10/23/17Z) |
| Critical Stages/Flows: | Flood: 9.0 ft, 1220 cfs – Action: 8.0 ft, 884 cfs |
| Current Observation: | 4.17 ft, 53 cfs (10/22/17Z) |
I am going to take a short break, then I will do the weather model update.
10/22/26 Thursday 3 am
For the first time in a while, there are MANY changes to discuss, but they all concern flood potential. I discovered a “vulnerability” (for lack of a better term) on the River Forecast Center site that is very unfriendly to casual users. I will cover that in just a moment. First I want to cover the precipitation models
Going forward for this event, rather than showing all the models, I’m going to show only the European model for a few reasons.
Here is the latest European showing rain left to fall from 6 am this morning to the last drop Sunday night/Monday morning.
Some locations don’t have Flood Stage and Action Stage data. They aren’t flagged as at risk because the data is missing. Some are shown as “normal”; others are listed as “significant rise”- which, ironically, shows a green dot on the location. I say that because they use a yellow dot for “action stage” and a red dot for “flood stage”. So, normal thought progression when you look at that is: red dot=warning; yellow dot=caution; green dot must be safe?
Not so much! When you look at historical data for some of those locations, the current forecast peak is, in some cases, higher than the historical high, yet it is flagged by a green dot!
This definitely answers all the “what about Vallecito Creek/Los Pinos/ etc.” questions we had. As I said, I was as surprised as everyone; now I know why.
New data will be out in 3 hours, I think. They did a model update last night, early evening, a lot of rain has fallen since then… So I will limit this to the new locations. And do a more detailed update mid-morning. The last two days, they have done an update around 8-9 am.
Los Pinos is forecast to hit a historic peak: 6.93 feet with 2806 CFS peaking at 6 am Friday morning. This exceeds the 2019 runoff.
Vallecito Creek is forecast to peak in the top 3 historic flows: 4.22 feet with 2,745 cfs, peaking Friday morning at 6 am.
Durango Pump Station south of town is forecast to reach a historical peak: 8.35 feet with 7401 cfs. ****** The biggest effects will be south of River Oaks, especially heading south on La Posta Rd. Jack Rabbit area and Weaselskin come to mind. Residents in that area should understand the significance of exceeding the prior high set in 2019!*****
Cherry Creek at Red Mesa: No historical data is available. Current observation shows 1.06 feet with 0 cfs. Forecast peak is 3.94 feet with 113 cfs Friday at 6 am.
La Plata River below Cherry Creek near Red Mesa: No historical data available. Current observation: 2.94 feet with 124 cfs. Forecast peak is 3.83 feet with 645 cfs Friday at noon.
Piedra near Arboles: Forecast to hit the 4th highest level in history. Forecast peak 6.21 with 5311 cfs Friday at 6 pm.
I hope to get the latest data and have the Flooding Update out by noon!