Red Mountain Pass – Durango Weather Guy

10/27/26 Tuesday 4 am

Yesterday morning’s model runs threw a wrench in the whole weekend setup! The European in particular had consistently shown 2″ to 3″ of liquid precipitation for the event, but one complete model run flipped to a solution showing 0.50″ to 1.00″.

This happened Sunday mid-morning as well. Then it flipped back. The other models are split between all-in and expecting less.

There are some wholesale changes in the big picture. Initially, the setup showed the remnants of Vance coming over the border in two batches. The first batch goes through Texas heading into the plains states.

The second batch comes several hours later through Arizona and into our area, bringing precipitation late Friday and early Saturday morning. This batch never really showed high precipitation totals. In those earlier runs, heavier precipitation arrived later Saturday and intensified on Sunday.

Now things have changed; models show the initial moisture batch is struggling to reach far enough north to bring precipitation to our area, and the deeper Pacific tropical airmass is slowing until Sunday, potentially lasting into Monday in some cases.

What does all of this mean? To me, it means we have to wait for better consensus on timing and track.

One the one hand, we are still seeing some models pump out high event totals:

Canadian:

GFS AI

European AI

On the other hand, some of these totals have come down (though some are up since yesterday afternoon, which adds to the confusion).

European (Legacy)

NBM

German

You will notice that the totals on these last 3 models are less than they were 24 hours ago. If we hadn’t experienced the last 2 months of heavy precipitation, we would consider these totals significant, “only 1 to 2 inches.”

So while some of these models have trended lower, Saturday night through Monday still could be a significant event with multiple impacts.

Snow levels will still be around 10,000 feet, and they could drop lower Sunday late or Monday morning. That is still something to be aware of for travel over the passes.

Hopefully, the next batches of model runs over the next 4 to 7 hours will show more consensus, but I am not holding my breath; there are a lot of pieces to this puzzle, and I left out most of those details in this update; too much could change between now and then.

I will be back around 1 pm.

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10/23/26 Friday 4 am

Yesterday, in one of my posts, I wrote about the historic flood of 2011. I was off by 100 years. Muscle memory is the culprit. I have been typing 2000s for 26 years, so in my mind I meant 1911, but it came out as 2011. I only heard from a couple of people, so I appreciate them bringing it to my attention as much as I appreciate the thousands of people who overlooked it and knew what I meant.

I am tired and a little cranky. I will do my best to stay on track this morning. But come on CDOT. Nothing like dropping the ball during the big game.

“Sorry, our cameras are out so…”

Besides that, the closures tell the story.

From the CBRFC Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. These are all the sites I need to follow up on, especially the red and yellow dots, but not exclusively.

For the last couple of days, I have been hearing from followers in and near Dolores. Like most long-term residents near rivers, streams, and creeks, they have local knowledge and experience dealing with flood threats.

I am not a hydro=guy, not at all. I hear from a few; one, who asked me not to reveal his name, said I was worried too much about flooding. He tried to tell me that saturated soils absorb precipitation better and that I shouldn’t worry about it. OK.

The last couple of months have exposed me to more heavy-rain threats than I have dealt with in the last 18 years. Now look: DOL (Dolores River at Dolores) and DRR (Dolores River at Rico) made the list today. Guess when the peak forecast time is: Now. Of course, why would anyone want any warning?

That’s the equivalent of the NWS in their forecast discussions saying, “Webcams show snow stakes in the San Juans with 15 inches of snow, so we are raising the forecast to 12-14 inches.” Don’t laugh, I have read that kind of stuff before. We call it “nowcasting”: “It’s raining outside, so we’re increasing our chances of rain to 80% today.”

(Stick with me; long-term followers know when I am tired because I stray off topic quickly, I call it going down the rabbit hole, it usually happens when Sus has a bad day or night)

Caffeine kicking in, RANT OVER (mostly).

NWS just issued a flood warning through 8 am…DUH

Animas Downtown: Currently running above Action Stage. Peak forecast: Noon today

Animas Below Pump Station: Currently running above June 2019 high. Peak forecast: Noon today.

San Juan River at Pagosa: Peak Forecast: Now. Pagosa and Wolf Creek are currently inaccessible because roads are closed.

Piedra at Arboles: Currently running above historical highs. Peak forecast: Now

La Plata River at Hesperus: Above flood stage. Peak forecast: Now

Mancos River at Mancos: Above Action Stage. Peak forecast: Now (another one that made the list while we were sleeping).

Animas River at Cedar Hill: Above flood stage. Peak forecast: 4 pm today. This has been on the list all along.

Animas River at Silverton: Peak forecast now. The forecast peak height is lower than current observations, which are hitting historical levels. This is another location where locals know more than the experts.

Vallecito Creek: Peak Forecast: Now

Los Pinos above Vallecito: Peak forecast 4 hours ago

Thanks for your patience. I am going to regroup. I’ll do a short model update in a moment. Then a more in-depth model update around 1 pm. At the moment, the latest model runs show this next round will be less impactful, but 1 to 3 more inches are possible

Durango Weather Guy

Tag: Red Mountain Pass