11/11/26 Wednesday Noon
Overview
A couple more dry days before storm #1 rolls in. It still looks like the (all) snow level will hover between 8,000 and 8,500 feet. Cold rain will fall at lower elevations, with temps in the 30s. As of now, the first storm looks like the least impactful of the three. It doesn’t mean it won’t produce; it just means it will be less than the other two that look likely.
Storm #2 is supposed to arrive from Tuesday through Wednesday. It has some colder air at the end of the storm that may drive the snow levels down to the low-elevation areas.
Storm #3’s expected to arrive early Friday the 20th. It could be very impactful. Models show snow at all elevations for most of the 48 hours before it leaves the area.
Those of you holding a big get-together for Thanksgiving may want to buy most of your pantry and frozen items before Tuesday’s storm, because you know how it gets when the media starts talking up these storms and the Watches and Warnings are posted.
Plus, if this develops like I am seeing, the passes will likely close during and after the third storm. This could delay deliveries to our grocery stores. Also, those of you who rely on snow tires in the winter should probably just do it and not wait like everyone else. You are going to need them this winter anyway; might as well get it done before the rush.
I shared one model run last night showing the three storm snow totals. I want to pivot to liquid-equivalent three-storm totals.
European- it’s been pretty consistent with its totals for several runs.
GFS-The GFS is redeeming itself; this is a good-looking run from the GFS!
GFS AI- This would translate to several feet of snow in the La Platas and Wolf Creek; this crazy run would indicate 5 to 7 feet of snow for Wolf Creek from the three storms!
That’s it for the 14/15 day models. Tomorrow we should be able to look at the Canadian model (it’s a 10-day model). By the weekend, we will be able to add 3 or 4 more models, which will really beef up my confidence in these storms.
Next update Thursday morning.