Thursday Model Update: Flood Warning-Current Concerns

On October 22, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/22/2026 Thursday 12:20 pm

OK, no break. As soon as I hit publish, this came out:

Archuleta CO-Hinsdale CO-La Plata CO-
1218 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by thunderstorms and excessive rainfall is
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Archuleta County in southwestern Colorado...
  Southern Hinsdale County in southwestern Colorado...
  Southern La Plata County in southwestern Colorado...

* WHEN...Until midnight MDT Tonight.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Streams
  continue to rise due to excess runoff from earlier rainfall.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1212 PM MDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
    heavy rain. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in
    the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen over
    the last 24 hours.
  - This includes but is not limited to the following streams...
    Vallecito Creek, La Plata River, Animas River and many creeks and
    tributaries that feed into these rivers.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Durango, La Plata, Falfa, Hesperus, Bondad, Breen, Mayday, Kline,
    Marvel, Redmesa and Vallecito.

I am glad they did this, BUT the existing Flood Watch expires tomorrow at noon. Do you want to know what’s not going to expire? The rain!

The Flood Watch reads like flood danger will be over by noon tomorrow. You can’t just flip a switch and end it. It looks like we may see a short lull tomorrow afternoon before the second part rolls in very late Friday night/very early Saturday morning. Here are the latest forecast totals between noon today and Monday morning.

The point is, the danger doesn’t go away when this flood watch does! I hope (nudge nudge) they issue an overlapping Flood Watch for the weekend, because ending this one without following up on the weekend sends the wrong message.

I am going to try to post another flood update after CBRFG updates their forecasts later today. At least the crucial ones.

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Thursday Flood Potential Update: Clarifications and Peak Forecasts

On October 22, 2026October 22, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/22/26 Thursday 9 am-12 pm

Junction Creek (and all other tributaries to the Animas River)

A couple of things that came up in an email. I have had questions regarding Junction Creek. What I am going to say is not exclusive to Junction Creek. Any creek or ditch draining into the Animas River is going to have the same situation.

With the Animas forecast peak, all tributaries will backwater, slowing drainage and potentially causing flooding in low-lying areas. This event will not even be a top 25 event for this location DRGC2(bridge near Powerhouse Science Center). You have likely seen pictures of the historic flooding when 25,000 cfs was recorded in October 1911.

When I, debatably, misspoke about the historic levels, I was referring to DGOC2 (the Animas below the Pump Plant) location. Technically, not a historic flow. But it did not exist many years ago. There are only 18 years of data at this newer location. So, technically, this will be a historic flow relative to the 18 years of data. I should have been clearer, but I want to make sure residents living south of town along the Animas know what to expect.

Vallecito Creek/Los Pinos Discrepancy

Last year, on October 11th, both locations ran much higher than the current forecast peak for this event. After some digging, I found out that, because these events fell outside of the water year, they are still “under review”, which means they will go into the CBRFC data next spring. I will be more careful talking about historic flows, now that I have that background knowledge. I will just include forecast, action stage, and flood stage

Update 10:40 am

The new data is out, and as I expected, everything is going higher…

I included the hydrograph on this one because this is the most dire situation in SW Colorado

San Juan River at Pagosa Springs: I don’t know how or if this will affect travel. Forecast Peak is Friday at 6 am.

Animas-Durango DRGC2 (bridge near Science Center): Now is forecast to surpass Action Stage on Friday at Noon. This will affect all residents along tributaries to the Animas, as well as low-lying ground around Trimble and along 550 to Animas City. Forecast peak is Friday at noon.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak:	7.07 ft, 7464 cfs (10/23/18Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 8.0 ft, 10000 cfs – Action: 7.0 ft, 7288 cfs
Current Observation:	5.10 ft, 3286 cfs (10/22/15Z)

Animas-Durango DGOC2- Below Pump Plant: No data for Action Stage or Flood Stage: Residents South of this location, particularly along La Posta Rd, should treat this as if action stage will be surpassed by Friday at 1 pm.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak:	8.51 ft, 7782 cfs (10/23/19Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: NA – Action: NA
Current Observation:	6.47 ft, 3602 cfs (10/22/16Z)

La Plata River at Hesperus: Above Action Stage, 3 inches below Flood Stage. Forecast peak 12:00 am Friday

Forecast Date:	2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak:	5.22 ft, 553 cfs (10/23/06Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 5.5 ft, 685 cfs – Action: 5.0 ft, 453 cfs
Current Observation:	4.75 ft, 327 cfs (10/22/16Z)

Vallecito Creek: Forecast Peak 12:00 am Friday

Forecast Date:	2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak:	4.80 ft, 3888 cfs (10/23/06Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: NA – Action: NA
Current Observation:	3.39 ft, 1492 cfs (10/22/17Z)

Los Pinos Above Vallecito: I double-checked with the provisional site. Last year the reading was 7.18 feet with 3400 CFS, FYI. Forecast Peak Friday 6 am.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak:	7.70 ft, 4195 cfs (10/23/12Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: NA – Action: NA
Current Observation:	5.72 ft, 1259 cfs (10/22/17Z)

Piedra at Arboles: I confirmed on the provisional site; this is forecast to be the 2nd highest level in 110 years.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak:	8.18 ft, 9446 cfs (10/23/18Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: NA – Action: NA
Current Observation:	4.37 ft, 2572 cfs (10/22/17Z)
Historical Peak:	8370 cfs, 1970-09-06

Animas at Cedar Hill: Above Action Stage; this would take over the fifth-highest spot in history (I double-checked). Forecast peak Friday at 5 pm

Forecast Date:	2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak:	9.75 ft, 8190 cfs (10/23/23Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 10.5 ft, 10411 cfs – Action: 9.5 ft, 7524 cfs
Current Observation:	7.59 ft, 3505 cfs (10/22/17Z)

La Plata River at CO/NM state line:

Forecast Date:	2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak:	8.00 ft, 884 cfs (10/23/17Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 9.0 ft, 1220 cfs – Action: 8.0 ft, 884 cfs
Current Observation:	4.17 ft, 53 cfs (10/22/17Z)

I am going to take a short break, then I will do the weather model update.

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Wednesday Afternoon Model Update

On October 21, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/21/26 Wednesday 12:30 pm

The models initialized pretty well on rain start times across the forecast area. That is encouraging or scary depending on your perspective.

While I am thinking about it, keep this in the back of your mind. If you have watched any weather media lately, you have probably heard about Super Typhoon Champi (pronounced Chompy). Champi is big enough that it could recurve all the way from Asia to Alaska’s Bering Sea, wreaking complete havoc on the fishing fleet (probably ending up in next year’s Deadliest Catch episodes).

From there it could slide down the Canadian Coast, then the Pacific Northwest Coast, slide all the way down to the Central/Southern California Coast, and end up as a big storm in our backyards. I don’t have models that track that far yet; this is pure intuition. I might be wrong; I’ll have a better idea in 7-10 days when the models can pick it up.

I got dangerously close to heading down the rabbit hole there…

The WPC NOAA Weather Prediction Center) finally updated their ERO (Excessive Rain Outlook) today; nothing like waiting until the last minute.

Here are the latest crazy model runs. I will not be surprised when the reports are logged if we see totals higher than forecast guidance.

These forecast totals run from 6 am this morning through Sunday night.

T=Telluride C=Cortez M=Mancos D=Durango B=Bayfield P=Pagosa Springs WC=Wolf Creek Pass

NBM

German

GFS AI

European

Canadian

I’ll be back in the morning.

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Wednesday Flood Potential

On October 21, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/21/26 Wednesday 9 am

Before I get started, I have received many emails asking about the area in and around Vallecito and Lemon Reservoirs. First, I was as surprised as everyone else. Perhaps it will be more like when than if. We will see.

Los Pinos, Florida, and Vallecito Creek all have gauges and are tracked by the River Forecast Center. I can monitor flows. So if they somehow dont catch the rising flows, I can let everyone know what I am seeing on the near-live observations.

I won’t share the little graph portion anymore, just the data. Two changes: La Plata River at Hesperus and the Animas at Cedar Hill, near the New Mexico border, are now forecast to be above action stage at peak flow. Action stage means you should monitor the situation closely, and you may experience minor flooding in low-lying areas.

All of these peak times are subject to change by NOAA’s River Forecast Center.

On these data boxes next to “Forecast Peak in the parentheses have the projected time and date of the peak. In the example below for Animas Durango, it is (10/24/00z). That is 6 pm Friday.

Animas Durango near Science Center:

Notice the forecast peak has increased and sits (for now) a couple of inches or less below action stage. If you are close to creeks that flow into the Animas, I suggest you come up with a game plan. Or contact the County EMS. This also applies to the Trimble area and areas along 550 between Trimble and Animas City.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	6.97 ft, 7213 cfs (10/24/00Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 8.0 ft, 10000 cfs – Action: 7.0 ft, 7288 cfs
Current Observation:	3.54 ft, 1142 cfs (10/21/14Z)

La Plata River at Hesperus: The forecast peak has increased above the action stage. Peak is forecast for Friday at 6 am

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	5.07 ft, 487 cfs (10/23/12Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 5.5 ft, 685 cfs – Action: 5.0 ft, 453 cfs
Current Observation:	3.94 ft, 71 cfs (10/21/14Z)

Mancos River in Mancos is no longer on the list. I don’t understand enough about it to explain why. I am just telling you what their models are predicting.

La Plata River at CO/NM state line: Is still right below action stage. The peak is forecast for Friday at noon

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	7.73 ft, 802 cfs (10/23/18Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 9.0 ft, 1220 cfs – Action: 8.0 ft, 884 cfs
Current Observation:	3.62 ft, 10 cfs (10/21/15Z)

Animas River at Cedar Hill near CO/NM border: Forecast peak has increased. It is now above the action stage. Forecast peak is Friday at 10 pm.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	9.59 ft, 7760 cfs (10/24/04Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 10.5 ft, 10411 cfs – Action: 9.5 ft, 7524 cfs
Current Observation:	5.75 ft, 1281 cfs (10/21/15Z)

San Juan River at Pagosa Springs: The forecast peak remains above flood stage. The peak forecast is Friday at 6 am. If this verifies, it will be the 10th highest peak on record for this location. 1 through 8 were decades ago. 9th highest occurred 5/23/2005.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	10.73 ft, 4705 cfs (10/23/12Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 10.5 ft, 4477 cfs – Action: 9.5 ft, 3487 cfs
Current Observation:	5.51 ft, 470 cfs (10/21/15Z)

My next weather model update will be out around 2-3 pm.

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Tuesday Afternoon Update: Too Big To Ignore!

On October 20, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/20/26 Tuesday Noon

Morning models are slightly slowing the onset of heavy precipitation (again), as expected.

Overview

Nothing meaningful has changed; showers and storms will start moving into the area tomorrow. Heavy rain will develop later in the day/night and last through Friday or Sunday; it’s complicated, more on this in a moment.

Here are the latest precipitation forecast models through Friday night.

NBM

German

Canadian

European

GFS AI- I fired the old original GFS. It is not dependable; it flip-flops all of the time and forecasts scenarios that could never happen with our terrain. I have been tracking the GFS AI for a while, and it is impressive. That’s the first time I have ever used the words GFS and Impressive together.

Time to revisit what I said earlier: “Heavy rain will develop later in the day/night and last through Friday or Sunday; it’s complicated”

That is an understatement. It’s also why I named this post “Too Big To Ignore!”

I have mentioned a couple of times that the Euro doesn’t stop raining on Friday; it continues through Sunday night/Monday morning. All of the other models are now on board with this solution. If this happens, I will have to update all of the flood areas; this could become a big problem. The maps I posted above are for precipitation through Friday night.

If I extend these models through Sunday night. Look at what it does to those totals:

German Model through Sunday night

Canadian Model through Sunday night

European Model through Sunday Night

GFS AI through Sunday night- that is a scary 10 inches of liquid at Wolf Creek Pass. Canadian showed 8.5 inches

To complicate things further, there is a slight chance we could see lower snow levels this weekend.

If you did not read my last update on current areas forecasted to have potential flooding issues, you can read it here: Tuesday Potential Flood Areas To Watch For Event

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Tuesday Potential Flood Areas To Watch For Event

On October 20, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

Tuesday 10:00 am

My weather update will be out this afternoon. But I wanted to get this out ASAP.

So far, these are the areas to keep an eye on: Animas River at Durango, La Plata River at Hesperus, Mancos River at Mancos, Animas River at Cedar Hill, La Plata River at the CO/NM state line, and the worst conditions are forecast to occur at the San Juan River in Pagosa. These are the only 6 so far. I will post any additions or changes. But as I said, so far these are the only ones.

1)Animas River (DRGC2, the bridge next to Powerhouse Science Center). This matters not only for this location but also for the North Valley. The last time I remember us having issues, we hit just over 7 feet. At 6 feet, water can back up Hermosa Creek, Waterfall Creek, and irrigation channels. I specifically remember seeing flooding in the ditches on 550 near Trimble and Hermosa, and (at the time) the old Gliderport. The forecast below shows the Animas hitting 6.5 feet, just below action stage at 7 feet. The flow (so far) is forecast to hit 6,090 cfs. The peak is forecast on Friday at 6 am.

2)La Plata River (Hesperus) Current Forecast is to hit 5 feet, which is action stage. Flow is forecast at 453 cfs. The peak is forecast on Friday at 7 am.

3)Mancos River forecast is 4.81 feet; action stage is 5 feet. Peak flow is forecast at 245 cfs. The current forecast has it peaking Friday at 5 am.

4)Animas at Cedar Hill: forecast is 9.09 feet. Action stage is 9.5 feet with flow at 6,400 cfs. The peak is forecast at 10 pm on Friday.

5)La Plata River at the CO/NM state line: forecast is 7.57 feet. Action stage is 8 feet. Flow is forecast at 735 cfs. Peak is forecast for Friday at 4 pm.

6) San Juan River at Pagosa Springs: Forecast is 10.75 feet. Action stage is 9.5 feet. Flood Stage is 10.5 feet, with flow at 4725 cfs. Forecast Peak is Friday at 5 am.

I am going to get to work on the afternoon update; it should be out by 3 pm.