Tag: San Juan River

Wednesday Afternoon: Concerning-Every Model From This Morning Went Higher

On By durangoweatherguy

10/28/26 Wednesday Noon

The big story is in this post’s title. After the models increased totals overnight, they did it again this morning. Not only for Sunday and Monday, but now for Saturday too; of course, it was right after I said, “I would not be surprised if the Saturday precipitation did not happen.”

I am going to skip the detailed snow-level talk for now. Models are fluctuating those snow levels as they try to anticipate when the cold air will arrive versus the moisture. At a glance, rather than a deep dive, it looks like the snow levels will start high, in the 10,500 to 11,500 range, and drop below pass levels by late Sunday afternoon or evening.

If I were planning to go over the passes Sunday late afternoon through Tuesday morning, I would change my plans. You may not even have a choice, because they may pre-emptively close passes early before it gets bad.

OK, I have talked about the models; now let’s see them

European

European AI

Canadian-these bullseyes in the Canadian and the GFS AI below it are very concerning.

GFS AI “crazy totals”

We are still 4 days out, so I can’t share the shorter-term/higher-resolution models yet. I can add those to the mix tomorrow afternoon.

If, 24 hours from now, the models are this aggressive or higher. I will be pushing the panic button, as I did early on last week.

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Wednesday Morning: Anomalous Runs Or Genuine Concern?

On By durangoweatherguy

10/28/26 Wednesday 5 am (overslept)

Changes:
  • The European is slowly going back to a wetter solution
  • Latest model runs show more of a “direct hit” starting Sunday
  • Models are delaying cold-air infiltration until the moisture is mostly gone on Monday, raising snow levels back to 564 dam (11,000 ft).
  • This would increase high-elevation runoff
  • I am still leaning on Saturday being a non-event, maybe nuisance rain of 0.10″-0.30″

Sounds scary, but this is one model run; it could be anomalous, or it could be a trend. Still a lot of uncertainty, but it’s an eye-opener.

European

European AI

Canadian: I keep referring to the GFS AI and Canadian as having “crazy” totals. Compared to the other models, their totals look crazy, but the Canadian and GFS AI were the most accurate for the last event.

GFS AI

Canadian

Again, don’t panic; be aware. The next two sets of model runs will tell us whether these are anomalous runs or the new trend.

 

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Tuesday Afternoon: Starting To Come Together

On By durangoweatherguy

10/27/26 Tuesday 12:30 pm

Up-to-the-minute changes (subject to more changes, of course)

No precipitation Friday. The first part of the event starts after midnight and before 9 am Saturday. Models depict very, very light precipitation Saturday.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this Saturday event doesn’t happen.

Early to mid-morning on Sunday, the moisture plume arrives in our forecast area, with heavy rain and sticky wet snow.

Precipitation continues all day; the snow level steadily drops in the afternoon as the cold front to our northwest filters in. If the models are correct, the snow levels could flirt with 8,000 feet Monday morning before the system moves out.

Here are the latest model runs; it might just be me, but all but one of them look a little more similar.

European

NBM

Euro AI

UKMET

GFS AI (crazy?

We will see what tomorrow brings.

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Tuesday Morning: Model Mayhem

On By durangoweatherguy

10/27/26 Tuesday 4 am

Yesterday morning’s model runs threw a wrench in the whole weekend setup! The European in particular had consistently shown 2″ to 3″ of liquid precipitation for the event, but one complete model run flipped to a solution showing 0.50″ to 1.00″.

This happened Sunday mid-morning as well. Then it flipped back. The other models are split between all-in and expecting less.

There are some wholesale changes in the big picture. Initially, the setup showed the remnants of Vance coming over the border in two batches. The first batch goes through Texas heading into the plains states.

The second batch comes several hours later through Arizona and into our area, bringing precipitation late Friday and early Saturday morning. This batch never really showed high precipitation totals. In those earlier runs, heavier precipitation arrived later Saturday and intensified on Sunday.

Now things have changed; models show the initial moisture batch is struggling to reach far enough north to bring precipitation to our area, and the deeper Pacific tropical airmass is slowing until Sunday, potentially lasting into Monday in some cases.

What does all of this mean? To me, it means we have to wait for better consensus on timing and track.

One the one hand, we are still seeing some models pump out high event totals:

Canadian:

GFS AI

European AI

On the other hand, some of these totals have come down (though some are up since yesterday afternoon, which adds to the confusion).

European (Legacy)

NBM

German

You will notice that the totals on these last 3 models are less than they were 24 hours ago. If we hadn’t experienced the last 2 months of heavy precipitation, we would consider these totals significant, “only 1 to 2 inches.”

So while some of these models have trended lower, Saturday night through Monday still could be a significant event with multiple impacts.

Snow levels will still be around 10,000 feet, and they could drop lower Sunday late or Monday morning. That is still something to be aware of for travel over the passes.

Hopefully, the next batches of model runs over the next 4 to 7 hours will show more consensus, but I am not holding my breath; there are a lot of pieces to this puzzle, and I left out most of those details in this update; too much could change between now and then.

I will be back around 1 pm.

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Sunday Morning

On By durangoweatherguy

10/25/26 Sunday 4 am-

With the less urgency across the forecast area, I have been looking at long-term model runs.  Very interesting; I have already vaguely referred to next weekend’s storm. I am seeing model consensus on timing, but precipitation totals are all over the map, from significant but manageable to dangerous again.

Speaking of dangerous, I thought Shiprock was bad; it was, but look at Bluff. It has not peaked yet.

Devastating…7 pm peak today at 48.4 feet, with a current observation of 20.39 feet!

While yesterday’s main tropical firehose has shifted east, our local radar shows plenty of lingering wrap-around moisture over the area this morning. Expect scattered showers and mountain mix to linger today before we finally get into a dry window this week.

Our residual moisture will also create its own weather today; it won’t take much to fire up a storm or two (wet likes to stay wet). Models are very conservative with the activity and potential totals through this evening. I won’t rely on them too heavily today.

Local radar (7:15 am) shows these showers already moving up from New Mexico again.

Have a good day. I will be keeping an eye on the situation and post as needed

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Saturday Update: Weekend Showers And Thunderstorms

On By durangoweatherguy

10/24/26 Saturday 3:30 am- 6:30 am

I haven’t addressed this in a while, but the time I put at the beginning of each post is when I sit down at my desk and start perusing the models. I am trying to get into the habit of putting the time I finish before I hit the publish button.

Overview:   Wet likes to stay wet… Showers and thunderstorms today, tonight, and tomorrow, moving out of the area late Sunday. The heaviest rain will fall today.

This should give way to 4 or 5 days of temporarily dry weather while the storm track retreats north of our area.

Then, Friday night into Saturday, models are advertising another multi-day storm. I know. It’s becoming a familiar setup: a west coast low-pressure system combines with tropical moisture and gets funneled into our area. It’s too early to dig into this. I will need to see a couple more days of model runs before I have any confidence in the details

News?

I am not sure when this happened, but the local radar is working; at least in Durango, I noticed it last night. It is doing exactly what it is supposed to do. It picks up the activity below the Grand Junction/National Radar.

“La Plata Live Radar” (these radar screenshots were taken at 5:20 am)

BUT, you can’t rely on it 100%; it has a very limited range, so you need to check both local radar and the site’s Hi-Res Radar. These screenshots were taken at the same time (5:20 am)

“Hi-Res Radar”

To switch between the two, click the layers icon at the top left of the screen, right above the full-screen button. For the La Plata Live Radar, I like to switch to “Dark” mode; for Hi-Res, I leave it on “Satellite” mode.

Fingers crossed it works this well in the winter!

Current Weather

So far, the activity has been spotty, but when the first storm blew up over my neighborhood at 4 am, I got brief heavy rain that dropped 0.20″ in a couple of minutes. The rainfall rate briefly hit 3.57″ per hour.

Since then, I have had occasional on-and-off showers (here comes another one at 6:20 am). It appears the La Plata radar has a little longer lag time than the national radar.

Based upon this early activity, I fear the models are severely underforecasting this weekend event, and I am very concerned! I feel like I am doing a play-by-play here: this latest cell briefly measured rain intensity of 4.09″/hr.

I already have had 0.61″ up here in DW2. It’s going to be a long day!

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Friday Afternoon: Rain Returns By Saturday (Or Earlier)

On By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26 Friday Noon

I am not sure whether the River Forecast Center will update its forecast; the last update was at 10 a.m., and it hasn’t changed since earlier this morning. I would not be surprised if the new forecast comes out as soon as I finish this update and hit send.

Before I get started I need to fix something. I made a poorly thought-out remark about CDOT “dropping the ball in the big game”.

I want to clarify that I meant the bureaucracy in Denver and the statewide camera outage. I was not referring to the hard-working drivers, mechanics, dispatchers, and office staff at the various offices in SW Colorado. You all work in one of the most challenging regions in the United States, and we all are grateful for your work and dedication.

Today is tricky; most models show a lull this afternoon, with showers firing back up tonight, getting heavier toward Saturday morning, continuing through Saturday night and Sunday, then moving out by late Sunday night. This morning around 11 a.m., a storm fired up right over our neighborhood. It dropped a very quick 0.30″ and a lot of graupel. These peaks of the sun we are getting could trigger thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. That’s an if-then, not part of the forecast.

Models peg snow levels at 9,500 feet. Actual snow levels should vary between 9,000-10,000 feet based on time of day and intensity of snowfall. Either way, below pass level.

It looks like my nudge regarding a weekend flood watch worked.

1159 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Colorado, including the following
  areas, Animas River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, San
  Juan River Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains and Utah,
  including the following areas, Arches/Grand Flat,
  Canyonlands/Natural Bridges, La Sal and Abajo Mountains and
  Southeast Utah.

* WHEN...Through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, recent burn scars and other low-lying and
  flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm
  drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Flooding is imminent or ongoing with additional rounds of showers
    and thunderstorms expected through Saturday afternoon. Rivers and
    creeks may still experience high waters even after rainfall has
    ended.

Update 1:50 pm: This just came out

148 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026  
   
..FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON  
  
* WHAT...SMALL STREAM FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
  CONTINUES.  
  
* WHERE...SOUTHEASTERN LA PLATA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 400 PM MDT.  
  
* IMPACTS...FLOODING OF RIVERS, CREEKS, STREAMS, AND OTHER LOW-LYING  
  AND FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS IS ONGOING. NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN CLOSED  
  DUE TO FLOODING IMPACTS WITH ROAD AND CULVERT WASHOUTS.  
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...  
  - AT 148 PM MDT, FLOODING IMPACTS ARE ONGOING. MINOR RAINFALL  
    AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  
  - THIS INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING STREAMS  
    ANDDRAINAGES...  
    FLORIDA RIVER (my insertion not Florida along 240) SPRING CREEK, UTE CREEK, SALT CREEK AND DRY CREEK.  
  - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
    BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, OXFORD, TIFFANY AND ALLISON.  

Back to the models: there isn’t strong consensus on precipitation amounts.

On one hand, we have the European and Canadian models. On the other, we have the GFS AI and German ICON model.

European

Canadian

German

GFS AI

The glaring similarity is that they all show Wolf Creek getting 2 to 4 more inches of liquid precipitation.  In reality, it will be a mixed bag of very wet snow and, at times, higher-ratio snow. If it were December with this liquid-equivalent forecast, I would be forecasting 24 to 30 inches of snow up there.

So I need to let another model cycle run. For now, though, I think the European model will be most accurate.

I will be back if I need to be; otherwise, it will be in the morning.

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Friday Update: Weekend Weather

On By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26  Friday  6:30 am

I looked at some of the Pagosa totals; several locations got 4 to 6 inches of rain yesterday. The highest total I found was on the NE corner of town: 8.35 inches yesterday.

The only model that initialized well this morning was the Canadian model, go figure.

Because of this, I have very low confidence in today’s forecast. Surface maps show the trough and associated cold front to our west. Satellite tells a different story. It shows the trough has already moved past us, with slightly drier air invading our area.

This reprieve sounds good, but if it leads to clear skies, thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon. Most models don’t show the next system affecting us until this evening. Looking at multiple models, precipitation forecasts show another 1 to 3 inches of rain by Monday morning. As I said. I have low confidence in the overnight model runs.

Because we are in a lull, I am going to hold off on weekend weather details until the new model runs come out.  One thing I will be watching is snow levels, which will be dropping; early indications show 9,000 to 10,000 feet.

I will continue to monitor the river forecast today and this weekend. If anything changes between now and my noon update, I’ll post.

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Friday Morning Update

On By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26 Friday  4 am

Yesterday, in one of my posts, I wrote about the historic flood of 2011. I was off by 100 years. Muscle memory is the culprit. I have been typing 2000s for 26 years, so in my mind I meant 1911, but it came out as 2011. I only heard from a couple of people, so I appreciate them bringing it to my attention as much as I appreciate the thousands of people who overlooked it and knew what I meant.

I am tired and a little cranky. I will do my best to stay on track this morning. But come on CDOT. Nothing like dropping the ball during the big game.

“Sorry, our cameras are out so…”

Besides that, the closures tell the story.

From the CBRFC Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. These are all the sites I need to follow up on, especially the red and yellow dots, but not exclusively.

For the last couple of days, I have been hearing from followers in and near Dolores. Like most long-term residents near rivers, streams, and creeks, they have local knowledge and experience dealing with flood threats.

I am not a hydro=guy, not at all. I hear from a few; one, who asked me not to reveal his name, said I was worried too much about flooding. He tried to tell me that saturated soils absorb precipitation better and that I shouldn’t worry about it. OK.

The last couple of months have exposed me to more heavy-rain threats than I have dealt with in the last 18 years. Now look: DOL (Dolores River at Dolores) and DRR (Dolores River at Rico) made the list today. Guess when the peak forecast time is: Now. Of course, why would anyone want any warning?

That’s the equivalent of the NWS in their forecast discussions saying, “Webcams show snow stakes in the San Juans with 15 inches of snow, so we are raising the forecast to 12-14 inches.” Don’t laugh, I have read that kind of stuff before. We call it “nowcasting”: “It’s raining outside, so we’re increasing our chances of rain to 80% today.”

(Stick with me; long-term followers know when I am tired because I stray off topic quickly, I call it going down the rabbit hole, it usually happens when Sus has a bad day or night)

Caffeine kicking in, RANT OVER (mostly).

NWS just issued a flood warning through 8 am…DUH

Animas Downtown: Currently running above Action Stage. Peak forecast: Noon today

Animas Below Pump Station: Currently running above June 2019 high. Peak forecast: Noon today.

San Juan River at Pagosa: Peak Forecast: Now. Pagosa and Wolf Creek are currently inaccessible because roads are closed.

Piedra at Arboles: Currently running above historical highs. Peak forecast: Now

La Plata River at Hesperus: Above flood stage. Peak forecast: Now

Mancos River at Mancos: Above Action Stage. Peak forecast: Now (another one that made the list while we were sleeping).

Animas River at Cedar Hill: Above flood stage. Peak forecast: 4 pm today. This has been on the list all along. 

Animas River at Silverton: Peak forecast now. The forecast peak height is lower than current observations, which are hitting historical levels. This is another location where locals know more than the experts.

Vallecito Creek: Peak Forecast: Now

Los Pinos above Vallecito: Peak forecast 4 hours ago

Thanks for your patience. I am going to regroup. I’ll do a short model update in a moment. Then a more in-depth model update around 1 pm. At the moment, the latest model runs show this next round will be less impactful, but 1 to 3 more inches are possible

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Thursday Late Afternoon Flood Update

On By durangoweatherguy

10/22/26 Thursday 3:30 pm

I should not do this but I am questioning the peak times, they have not changed, that tells me they might be chasing data, I will leave it at that.

Animas Durango: Above Action Stage, at Flood Stage 8ft (within 3/4 of an inch) with 9825 cfs, which well exceeds 2019 and would be ranked 7th in history

Animas at Durango Below Pump Plant: Forecast is higher than ever recorded since records were kept (18 years). If you missed my other updates big concerns for the lowest lying residents in River Oaks and folks living off of east of La Posta road. Weaselskin, Jack Rabbit etc.

San Juan at Pagosa Springs: YIKES

Vallecito Creek: We are creeping up on last year.

Los Pinos Above Vallecito: This exceeds both days in October last year on the provisional site.

 

Animas at Cedar Hill: Exceeding flood stage

La Plata River at State Line: 

La Plata River at Hesperus:

I would not be surprised at all if these NOAA River Forecast folks have a very long night. I will do my best to keep up. Have not covered an historic event in a while!

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