Thursday Midday Latest & Model Comparisons

On October 29, 2026October 29, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/29/26 Thursday

Quick Note: Models show the storm speeding up through the first half, with 0.30″-0.60″ of liquid precipitation by Saturday afternoon.

Conversely, they are slowing the Sunday system; it may be with us most of Monday.

I continue to see high snow levels of 10,000’+ until the last 6 to 10 hours of the storm. That will make for a difficult snow forecast for anyone trying to figure it out.

The latest from NWS

Hydrologic Outlook
COC007-033-067-083-113-UTC037-302100-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1053 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Low pressure begins to dig southward from the PACNW on Friday,
tapping into a fetch of Pacific moisture that will evolve into an
atmospheric river streaming into the Desert Southwest this weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms develop on Friday and Saturday across the
region. Lighter rainfall totals Friday and Saturday will reflect,
initially lower, moisture. However, a few thunderstorms could produce
impactful downpours on saturated soils left over from last weekend`s
historic rainfall.

Deeper moisture develops Saturday night and early Sunday. This is
expected to produce heavier and more widespread rainfall across
southeast UT and southwest CO Sunday and Monday, mostly below 10000
feet. While rivers are forecast to remain below action stage, a
growing concern lies in the potential for runoff around saturated
hillsides in the region. This could produce rock, mud, and debris
flows onto roadways, as well as flash flood prone burn scars, washes,
slot canyons, and arroyos. Early estimates predict an area of 1 to 2
inches of new rainfall for portions of southeast UT and southwest CO.

This is a preliminary forecast that hinges on slight shifts in a
strong moisture plume impacting the region. It also attempts to
capture the most statistically likely outcome, despite stronger and
weaker outlier predictions. Outdoor enthusiasts, motorists, and
residents of recent flood impacted areas are encouraged to remain
abreast of the developing forecast in the coming days.

Finally, at least an acknowledgment. But I have seen no models that show only 1-2 inches of rain. Grand Junction NWS is still downplaying the event, saying the rivers will flow below action stage. Apparently they did not see this:

Keep in mind: bad data in, bad data out, so if they expect this peak with 1-2 inches of rain, what would double do?

I dug deep and found those model runs from before the last event. Overall, the GFS AI and Canadian are very similar to before- remember, those were the most accurate models last time. The similarity ends with the European. I will be watching that closely.

Here are some comparison model runs: current vs. last week.

Current GFS AI

Last week GFS AI

Current Canadian

Last week Canadian

Current European

Last week European

That’s all I have for now. If something changes before the morning, I will jump back on.

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Wednesday Afternoon: Concerning-Every Model From This Morning Went Higher

On October 28, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/28/26 Wednesday Noon

The big story is in this post’s title. After the models increased totals overnight, they did it again this morning. Not only for Sunday and Monday, but now for Saturday too; of course, it was right after I said, “I would not be surprised if the Saturday precipitation did not happen.”

I am going to skip the detailed snow-level talk for now. Models are fluctuating those snow levels as they try to anticipate when the cold air will arrive versus the moisture. At a glance, rather than a deep dive, it looks like the snow levels will start high, in the 10,500 to 11,500 range, and drop below pass levels by late Sunday afternoon or evening.

If I were planning to go over the passes Sunday late afternoon through Tuesday morning, I would change my plans. You may not even have a choice, because they may pre-emptively close passes early before it gets bad.

OK, I have talked about the models; now let’s see them

European

European AI

Canadian-these bullseyes in the Canadian and the GFS AI below it are very concerning.

GFS AI “crazy totals”

We are still 4 days out, so I can’t share the shorter-term/higher-resolution models yet. I can add those to the mix tomorrow afternoon.

If, 24 hours from now, the models are this aggressive or higher. I will be pushing the panic button, as I did early on last week.

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More Flood Warnings

On October 23, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26 Friday 4 pm

Thunderstorms are moving into parts of the forecast area. They will become more widespread this evening.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO  
357 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026  
  
COC007-053-067-242145-  
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.W.0021.261023T2157Z-261024T2145Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/  
ARCHULETA CO-HINSDALE CO-LA PLATA CO-  
357 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026  
   
..FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MDT SATURDAY  
  
* WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES.  
  
* WHERE...NORTHWESTERN ARCHULETA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  SOUTHWESTERN HINSDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  LA PLATA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 345 PM MDT SATURDAY.  
  
* IMPACTS...FLOODING OF RIVERS, CREEKS, STREAMS, AND OTHER LOW-LYING  
  AND FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS CONTINUES. SEVERAL STRUCTURES ARE  
  FLOODED, AND NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO WIDESPREAD  
  FLOODING IMPACTS.  
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...  
  - AT 350 PM MDT, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS REPORTS OF  
    DAMAGE AND FLOODING IMPACTS. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN FAST AND HIGH  
    AND WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO  
    1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA FROM THUNDERSTORMS  
    DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, OVERNIGHT AND REDEVELOPING TOMORROW.  
    PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING  
    AND FLASH FLOODING .  
  - THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...  
    ANIMAS RIVER, LA PLATA, LOS PINOS, AND VALLECITO CREEK.  
  - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
    DURANGO, BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, LA PLATA, FALFA, OXFORD, BONDAD,  
    HESPERUS, BREEN, VALLECITO, MAYDAY, KLINE, MARVEL, TIFFANY,  
    ALLISON AND REDMESA.

I remain on standby…

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Friday Afternoon: Rain Returns By Saturday (Or Earlier)

On October 23, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/23/26 Friday Noon

I am not sure whether the River Forecast Center will update its forecast; the last update was at 10 a.m., and it hasn’t changed since earlier this morning. I would not be surprised if the new forecast comes out as soon as I finish this update and hit send.

Before I get started I need to fix something. I made a poorly thought-out remark about CDOT “dropping the ball in the big game”.

I want to clarify that I meant the bureaucracy in Denver and the statewide camera outage. I was not referring to the hard-working drivers, mechanics, dispatchers, and office staff at the various offices in SW Colorado. You all work in one of the most challenging regions in the United States, and we all are grateful for your work and dedication.

Today is tricky; most models show a lull this afternoon, with showers firing back up tonight, getting heavier toward Saturday morning, continuing through Saturday night and Sunday, then moving out by late Sunday night. This morning around 11 a.m., a storm fired up right over our neighborhood. It dropped a very quick 0.30″ and a lot of graupel. These peaks of the sun we are getting could trigger thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. That’s an if-then, not part of the forecast.

Models peg snow levels at 9,500 feet. Actual snow levels should vary between 9,000-10,000 feet based on time of day and intensity of snowfall. Either way, below pass level.

It looks like my nudge regarding a weekend flood watch worked.

1159 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Colorado, including the following
  areas, Animas River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, San
  Juan River Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains and Utah,
  including the following areas, Arches/Grand Flat,
  Canyonlands/Natural Bridges, La Sal and Abajo Mountains and
  Southeast Utah.

* WHEN...Through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, recent burn scars and other low-lying and
  flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm
  drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Flooding is imminent or ongoing with additional rounds of showers
    and thunderstorms expected through Saturday afternoon. Rivers and
    creeks may still experience high waters even after rainfall has
    ended.

Update 1:50 pm: This just came out

148 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026  
   
..FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON  
  
* WHAT...SMALL STREAM FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
  CONTINUES.  
  
* WHERE...SOUTHEASTERN LA PLATA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 400 PM MDT.  
  
* IMPACTS...FLOODING OF RIVERS, CREEKS, STREAMS, AND OTHER LOW-LYING  
  AND FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS IS ONGOING. NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN CLOSED  
  DUE TO FLOODING IMPACTS WITH ROAD AND CULVERT WASHOUTS.  
  
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...  
  - AT 148 PM MDT, FLOODING IMPACTS ARE ONGOING. MINOR RAINFALL  
    AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  
  - THIS INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING STREAMS  
    ANDDRAINAGES...  
    FLORIDA RIVER (my insertion not Florida along 240) SPRING CREEK, UTE CREEK, SALT CREEK AND DRY CREEK.  
  - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
    BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, OXFORD, TIFFANY AND ALLISON.

Back to the models: there isn’t strong consensus on precipitation amounts.

On one hand, we have the European and Canadian models. On the other, we have the GFS AI and German ICON model.

European

Canadian

German

GFS AI

The glaring similarity is that they all show Wolf Creek getting 2 to 4 more inches of liquid precipitation. In reality, it will be a mixed bag of very wet snow and, at times, higher-ratio snow. If it were December with this liquid-equivalent forecast, I would be forecasting 24 to 30 inches of snow up there.

So I need to let another model cycle run. For now, though, I think the European model will be most accurate.

I will be back if I need to be; otherwise, it will be in the morning.

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Thursday Late Afternoon Flood Update

On October 22, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/22/26 Thursday 3:30 pm

I should not do this but I am questioning the peak times, they have not changed, that tells me they might be chasing data, I will leave it at that.

Animas Durango: Above Action Stage, at Flood Stage 8ft (within 3/4 of an inch) with 9825 cfs, which well exceeds 2019 and would be ranked 7th in history

Animas at Durango Below Pump Plant: Forecast is higher than ever recorded since records were kept (18 years). If you missed my other updates big concerns for the lowest lying residents in River Oaks and folks living off of east of La Posta road. Weaselskin, Jack Rabbit etc.

San Juan at Pagosa Springs: YIKES

Vallecito Creek: We are creeping up on last year.

Los Pinos Above Vallecito: This exceeds both days in October last year on the provisional site.

Animas at Cedar Hill: Exceeding flood stage

La Plata River at State Line:

La Plata River at Hesperus:

I would not be surprised at all if these NOAA River Forecast folks have a very long night. I will do my best to keep up. Have not covered an historic event in a while!

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Thursday Model Update: Flood Warning-Current Concerns

On October 22, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/22/2026 Thursday 12:20 pm

OK, no break. As soon as I hit publish, this came out:

Archuleta CO-Hinsdale CO-La Plata CO-
1218 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by thunderstorms and excessive rainfall is
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Archuleta County in southwestern Colorado...
  Southern Hinsdale County in southwestern Colorado...
  Southern La Plata County in southwestern Colorado...

* WHEN...Until midnight MDT Tonight.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying
  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Streams
  continue to rise due to excess runoff from earlier rainfall.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1212 PM MDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
    heavy rain. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in
    the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen over
    the last 24 hours.
  - This includes but is not limited to the following streams...
    Vallecito Creek, La Plata River, Animas River and many creeks and
    tributaries that feed into these rivers.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Durango, La Plata, Falfa, Hesperus, Bondad, Breen, Mayday, Kline,
    Marvel, Redmesa and Vallecito.

I am glad they did this, BUT the existing Flood Watch expires tomorrow at noon. Do you want to know what’s not going to expire? The rain!

The Flood Watch reads like flood danger will be over by noon tomorrow. You can’t just flip a switch and end it. It looks like we may see a short lull tomorrow afternoon before the second part rolls in very late Friday night/very early Saturday morning. Here are the latest forecast totals between noon today and Monday morning.

The point is, the danger doesn’t go away when this flood watch does! I hope (nudge nudge) they issue an overlapping Flood Watch for the weekend, because ending this one without following up on the weekend sends the wrong message.

I am going to try to post another flood update after CBRFG updates their forecasts later today. At least the crucial ones.

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Thursday Flood Potential Update: Clarifications and Peak Forecasts

On October 22, 2026October 22, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/22/26 Thursday 9 am-12 pm

Junction Creek (and all other tributaries to the Animas River)

A couple of things that came up in an email. I have had questions regarding Junction Creek. What I am going to say is not exclusive to Junction Creek. Any creek or ditch draining into the Animas River is going to have the same situation.

With the Animas forecast peak, all tributaries will backwater, slowing drainage and potentially causing flooding in low-lying areas. This event will not even be a top 25 event for this location DRGC2(bridge near Powerhouse Science Center). You have likely seen pictures of the historic flooding when 25,000 cfs was recorded in October 1911.

When I, debatably, misspoke about the historic levels, I was referring to DGOC2 (the Animas below the Pump Plant) location. Technically, not a historic flow. But it did not exist many years ago. There are only 18 years of data at this newer location. So, technically, this will be a historic flow relative to the 18 years of data. I should have been clearer, but I want to make sure residents living south of town along the Animas know what to expect.

Vallecito Creek/Los Pinos Discrepancy

Last year, on October 11th, both locations ran much higher than the current forecast peak for this event. After some digging, I found out that, because these events fell outside of the water year, they are still “under review”, which means they will go into the CBRFC data next spring. I will be more careful talking about historic flows, now that I have that background knowledge. I will just include forecast, action stage, and flood stage

Update 10:40 am

The new data is out, and as I expected, everything is going higher…

I included the hydrograph on this one because this is the most dire situation in SW Colorado

San Juan River at Pagosa Springs: I don’t know how or if this will affect travel. Forecast Peak is Friday at 6 am.

Animas-Durango DRGC2 (bridge near Science Center): Now is forecast to surpass Action Stage on Friday at Noon. This will affect all residents along tributaries to the Animas, as well as low-lying ground around Trimble and along 550 to Animas City. Forecast peak is Friday at noon.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak:	7.07 ft, 7464 cfs (10/23/18Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 8.0 ft, 10000 cfs – Action: 7.0 ft, 7288 cfs
Current Observation:	5.10 ft, 3286 cfs (10/22/15Z)

Animas-Durango DGOC2- Below Pump Plant: No data for Action Stage or Flood Stage: Residents South of this location, particularly along La Posta Rd, should treat this as if action stage will be surpassed by Friday at 1 pm.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak:	8.51 ft, 7782 cfs (10/23/19Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: NA – Action: NA
Current Observation:	6.47 ft, 3602 cfs (10/22/16Z)

La Plata River at Hesperus: Above Action Stage, 3 inches below Flood Stage. Forecast peak 12:00 am Friday

Forecast Date:	2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak:	5.22 ft, 553 cfs (10/23/06Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 5.5 ft, 685 cfs – Action: 5.0 ft, 453 cfs
Current Observation:	4.75 ft, 327 cfs (10/22/16Z)

Vallecito Creek: Forecast Peak 12:00 am Friday

Forecast Date:	2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak:	4.80 ft, 3888 cfs (10/23/06Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: NA – Action: NA
Current Observation:	3.39 ft, 1492 cfs (10/22/17Z)

Los Pinos Above Vallecito: I double-checked with the provisional site. Last year the reading was 7.18 feet with 3400 CFS, FYI. Forecast Peak Friday 6 am.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak:	7.70 ft, 4195 cfs (10/23/12Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: NA – Action: NA
Current Observation:	5.72 ft, 1259 cfs (10/22/17Z)

Piedra at Arboles: I confirmed on the provisional site; this is forecast to be the 2nd highest level in 110 years.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak:	8.18 ft, 9446 cfs (10/23/18Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: NA – Action: NA
Current Observation:	4.37 ft, 2572 cfs (10/22/17Z)
Historical Peak:	8370 cfs, 1970-09-06

Animas at Cedar Hill: Above Action Stage; this would take over the fifth-highest spot in history (I double-checked). Forecast peak Friday at 5 pm

Forecast Date:	2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak:	9.75 ft, 8190 cfs (10/23/23Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 10.5 ft, 10411 cfs – Action: 9.5 ft, 7524 cfs
Current Observation:	7.59 ft, 3505 cfs (10/22/17Z)

La Plata River at CO/NM state line:

Forecast Date:	2026-10-22 16:00Z
Forecast Peak:	8.00 ft, 884 cfs (10/23/17Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 9.0 ft, 1220 cfs – Action: 8.0 ft, 884 cfs
Current Observation:	4.17 ft, 53 cfs (10/22/17Z)

I am going to take a short break, then I will do the weather model update.

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Thursday Morning Updates- Additions To Flood Locations Please Read!

On October 22, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/22/26 Thursday 3 am

For the first time in a while, there are MANY changes to discuss, but they all concern flood potential. I discovered a “vulnerability” (for lack of a better term) on the River Forecast Center site that is very unfriendly to casual users. I will cover that in just a moment. First I want to cover the precipitation models

Going forward for this event, rather than showing all the models, I’m going to show only the European model for a few reasons.

The European was the first model to pick up on this precipitation event days before any other model.
The European was also the first model to pick up on the secondary system that will affect us this weekend.
The European model has more versatile parameters that let me show rainfall left to fall for any given time period.
Tracking the flooding potential will take extra time now that I’ve discovered issues with the River Forecast site.

Here is the latest European showing rain left to fall from 6 am this morning to the last drop Sunday night/Monday morning.

River Forecast Site Issues

Some locations don’t have Flood Stage and Action Stage data. They aren’t flagged as at risk because the data is missing. Some are shown as “normal”; others are listed as “significant rise”- which, ironically, shows a green dot on the location. I say that because they use a yellow dot for “action stage” and a red dot for “flood stage”. So, normal thought progression when you look at that is: red dot=warning; yellow dot=caution; green dot must be safe?

Not so much! When you look at historical data for some of those locations, the current forecast peak is, in some cases, higher than the historical high, yet it is flagged by a green dot!

This definitely answers all the “what about Vallecito Creek/Los Pinos/ etc.” questions we had. As I said, I was as surprised as everyone; now I know why.

New data will be out in 3 hours, I think. They did a model update last night, early evening, a lot of rain has fallen since then… So I will limit this to the new locations. And do a more detailed update mid-morning. The last two days, they have done an update around 8-9 am.

Los Pinos is forecast to hit a historic peak: 6.93 feet with 2806 CFS peaking at 6 am Friday morning. This exceeds the 2019 runoff.

Vallecito Creek is forecast to peak in the top 3 historic flows: 4.22 feet with 2,745 cfs, peaking Friday morning at 6 am.

Durango Pump Station south of town is forecast to reach a historical peak: 8.35 feet with 7401 cfs. ****** The biggest effects will be south of River Oaks, especially heading south on La Posta Rd. Jack Rabbit area and Weaselskin come to mind. Residents in that area should understand the significance of exceeding the prior high set in 2019!*****

Cherry Creek at Red Mesa: No historical data is available. Current observation shows 1.06 feet with 0 cfs. Forecast peak is 3.94 feet with 113 cfs Friday at 6 am.

La Plata River below Cherry Creek near Red Mesa: No historical data available. Current observation: 2.94 feet with 124 cfs. Forecast peak is 3.83 feet with 645 cfs Friday at noon.

Piedra near Arboles: Forecast to hit the 4th highest level in history. Forecast peak 6.21 with 5311 cfs Friday at 6 pm.

I hope to get the latest data and have the Flooding Update out by noon!

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Wednesday Flood Potential

On October 21, 2026 By durangoweatherguy

10/21/26 Wednesday 9 am

Before I get started, I have received many emails asking about the area in and around Vallecito and Lemon Reservoirs. First, I was as surprised as everyone else. Perhaps it will be more like when than if. We will see.

Los Pinos, Florida, and Vallecito Creek all have gauges and are tracked by the River Forecast Center. I can monitor flows. So if they somehow dont catch the rising flows, I can let everyone know what I am seeing on the near-live observations.

I won’t share the little graph portion anymore, just the data. Two changes: La Plata River at Hesperus and the Animas at Cedar Hill, near the New Mexico border, are now forecast to be above action stage at peak flow. Action stage means you should monitor the situation closely, and you may experience minor flooding in low-lying areas.

All of these peak times are subject to change by NOAA’s River Forecast Center.

On these data boxes next to “Forecast Peak in the parentheses have the projected time and date of the peak. In the example below for Animas Durango, it is (10/24/00z). That is 6 pm Friday.

Animas Durango near Science Center:

Notice the forecast peak has increased and sits (for now) a couple of inches or less below action stage. If you are close to creeks that flow into the Animas, I suggest you come up with a game plan. Or contact the County EMS. This also applies to the Trimble area and areas along 550 between Trimble and Animas City.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	6.97 ft, 7213 cfs (10/24/00Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 8.0 ft, 10000 cfs – Action: 7.0 ft, 7288 cfs
Current Observation:	3.54 ft, 1142 cfs (10/21/14Z)

La Plata River at Hesperus: The forecast peak has increased above the action stage. Peak is forecast for Friday at 6 am

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	5.07 ft, 487 cfs (10/23/12Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 5.5 ft, 685 cfs – Action: 5.0 ft, 453 cfs
Current Observation:	3.94 ft, 71 cfs (10/21/14Z)

Mancos River in Mancos is no longer on the list. I don’t understand enough about it to explain why. I am just telling you what their models are predicting.

La Plata River at CO/NM state line: Is still right below action stage. The peak is forecast for Friday at noon

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	7.73 ft, 802 cfs (10/23/18Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 9.0 ft, 1220 cfs – Action: 8.0 ft, 884 cfs
Current Observation:	3.62 ft, 10 cfs (10/21/15Z)

Animas River at Cedar Hill near CO/NM border: Forecast peak has increased. It is now above the action stage. Forecast peak is Friday at 10 pm.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	9.59 ft, 7760 cfs (10/24/04Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 10.5 ft, 10411 cfs – Action: 9.5 ft, 7524 cfs
Current Observation:	5.75 ft, 1281 cfs (10/21/15Z)

San Juan River at Pagosa Springs: The forecast peak remains above flood stage. The peak forecast is Friday at 6 am. If this verifies, it will be the 10th highest peak on record for this location. 1 through 8 were decades ago. 9th highest occurred 5/23/2005.

Forecast Date:	2026-10-21 15:00Z
Forecast Peak:	10.73 ft, 4705 cfs (10/23/12Z)
Critical Stages/Flows:	Flood: 10.5 ft, 4477 cfs – Action: 9.5 ft, 3487 cfs
Current Observation:	5.51 ft, 470 cfs (10/21/15Z)

My next weather model update will be out around 2-3 pm.