10/23/26 Friday Noon
I am not sure whether the River Forecast Center will update its forecast; the last update was at 10 a.m., and it hasn’t changed since earlier this morning. I would not be surprised if the new forecast comes out as soon as I finish this update and hit send.
Before I get started I need to fix something. I made a poorly thought-out remark about CDOT “dropping the ball in the big game”.
I want to clarify that I meant the bureaucracy in Denver and the statewide camera outage. I was not referring to the hard-working drivers, mechanics, dispatchers, and office staff at the various offices in SW Colorado. You all work in one of the most challenging regions in the United States, and we all are grateful for your work and dedication.
Today is tricky; most models show a lull this afternoon, with showers firing back up tonight, getting heavier toward Saturday morning, continuing through Saturday night and Sunday, then moving out by late Sunday night. This morning around 11 a.m., a storm fired up right over our neighborhood. It dropped a very quick 0.30″ and a lot of graupel. These peaks of the sun we are getting could trigger thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. That’s an if-then, not part of the forecast.
Models peg snow levels at 9,500 feet. Actual snow levels should vary between 9,000-10,000 feet based on time of day and intensity of snowfall. Either way, below pass level.
It looks like my nudge regarding a weekend flood watch worked.
1159 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026
...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...Portions of southwest Colorado, including the following
areas, Animas River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, San
Juan River Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains and Utah,
including the following areas, Arches/Grand Flat,
Canyonlands/Natural Bridges, La Sal and Abajo Mountains and
Southeast Utah.
* WHEN...Through Sunday morning.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, recent burn scars and other low-lying and
flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm
drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Flooding is imminent or ongoing with additional rounds of showers
and thunderstorms expected through Saturday afternoon. Rivers and
creeks may still experience high waters even after rainfall has
ended.
Update 1:50 pm: This just came out
148 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON
* WHAT...SMALL STREAM FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
CONTINUES.
* WHERE...SOUTHEASTERN LA PLATA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...
* WHEN...UNTIL 400 PM MDT.
* IMPACTS...FLOODING OF RIVERS, CREEKS, STREAMS, AND OTHER LOW-LYING
AND FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS IS ONGOING. NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN CLOSED
DUE TO FLOODING IMPACTS WITH ROAD AND CULVERT WASHOUTS.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- AT 148 PM MDT, FLOODING IMPACTS ARE ONGOING. MINOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
- THIS INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING STREAMS
ANDDRAINAGES...
FLORIDA RIVER (my insertion not Florida along 240) SPRING CREEK, UTE CREEK, SALT CREEK AND DRY CREEK.
- SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BAYFIELD, IGNACIO, OXFORD, TIFFANY AND ALLISON.
Back to the models: there isn’t strong consensus on precipitation amounts.
On one hand, we have the European and Canadian models. On the other, we have the GFS AI and German ICON model.
European
Canadian
German
GFS AI
The glaring similarity is that they all show Wolf Creek getting 2 to 4 more inches of liquid precipitation. In reality, it will be a mixed bag of very wet snow and, at times, higher-ratio snow. If it were December with this liquid-equivalent forecast, I would be forecasting 24 to 30 inches of snow up there.
So I need to let another model cycle run. For now, though, I think the European model will be most accurate.
I will be back if I need to be; otherwise, it will be in the morning.